SMM November 11:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,046/mt. During the Asian session, it touched a low of $2,043/mt. As LME lead inventory currently sits at its lowest level in nearly eight months, LME lead showed firm gains. Entering the European session, it initially rose before pulling back, then saw a late-session rally, climbing to a high of $2,064/mt, up $11.5, a gain of 0.56%, marking a three-day winning streak.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2512 contract opened higher at 17,505 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it fluctuated slightly below the daily average line, reaching a low of 17,480 yuan/mt. Due to bears reducing their positions, SHFE lead rose, rebounding to a high of 17,575 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly towards the session's end, finally settling at 17,525 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.11%, marking a two-day winning streak.
This week is the week before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract. Suppliers are gradually transferring lead ingots for delivery to social warehouses, and social inventory of lead ingots continues to increase. Based on the current open interest of the SHFE lead 2511 contract, the estimated quantity of lead ingots required for delivery is around 15,000 mt. However, the current social inventory of lead ingots already exceeds 30,000 mt, which is more than sufficient to complete the delivery. By mid-November, domestic lead ingot supply is gradually recovering, coupled with the arrival of imported lead, some of which will go directly to downstream enterprises. As the SHFE lead delivery date approaches, a certain volume of lead ingots in transit is expected to arrive at warehouses. Social inventory of lead ingots is projected to show an upward trend before the delivery, warranting caution against a potential price retreat after a rapid rise.
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