October 28 news:
North China ports: South African high-iron 29.4-30.1 yuan/mtu, up 0.34% WoW; South African semi-carbonate lumps 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 39.6-40.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.25% WoW; Australian lumps 39.9-40.4 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW; South African medium-iron 35.1-35.8 yuan/mtu, up 0.28% WoW.
South China ports: South African high-iron 30.7-31.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.32% WoW; South African semi-carbonate lumps 36.9-37.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 40.5-40.1 yuan/mtu, up 0.25% WoW; Australian lumps 40.1-40.8 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW; South African medium-iron 36.5-37.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.27% WoW.
Supply side, price-wise, NMT announced its November 2025 manganese ore shipment offer to China: Mn36% (min) South African semi-carbonate lumps at $4.1/mtu (up $0.05). Quantity-wise, it is understood that Gabon manganese ore port arrivals are low at the end of October and in November. The increase in manganese mine forward price offers, combined with the overall reduction in manganese ore port arrivals, provides strong support for forward costs, and miners have low willingness to offer discounts.
Demand side, the downstream SiMn market is fluctuating. Alloy plants in both the north and south China maintain just-in-time procurement for manganese ore, with weak purchase willingness, and the peak season procurement expectations have not been well realized. It is understood that new capacity is expected to be commissioned in the main production area of Inner Mongolia, making an increase in manganese ore demand highly likely.
Overall, the fundamental supply-demand situation in the manganese ore market shows no major changes, and the market has been operating steadily recently. There is potential for downstream SiMn production increases later, which maintains demand-side price support. Coupled with strong direct cost support from the supply side, manganese ore prices are more likely to rise than fall.
