As of Wednesday, the price of SiMn 6517 (cash) in the north China market was 5,625-5,725 yuan/mt, remaining flat this week; in the south China market, the price of SiMn 6517 (cash) was 5,670-5,730 yuan/mt, also flat this week.
Currently, the SiMn market is characterized by weak stability and a dominant wait-and-see attitude.
Cost side, the coke market was temporarily stable with no price adjustments, while the manganese ore market was in the doldrums, with prices dropping slightly recently. Current SiMn production costs are in a state of weak support.
Supply side, production pace at SiMn plants in north China was basically stable, with no significant production cuts observed. However, due to low market prices, some plants have fallen into losses, and it has become more difficult to sell products. In the south China market, operating rates at SiMn plants in Guangxi and Guizhou have remained low for an extended period, with no significant changes in the short term. In Yunnan, with the end of the rainy season, electricity prices are expected to rise, significantly increasing total SiMn production costs. Some Yunnan plants have explicitly stated that they will initiate production cuts after the electricity price adjustment, and it is anticipated that the operating rate of SiMn in Yunnan will gradually decline.
Demand side, HBIS Group's October SiMn procurement volume was set at 16,500 mt, down 500 mt MoM from 17,000 mt in September, indicating a slight contraction in procurement volume. Meanwhile, the initial inquiry price was 5,750 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt MoM from the final price of 6,000 yuan/mt in September. The decline in both volume and price directly reflects a cooling purchase willingness for SiMn from steel mills. Besides HBIS, most other steel mills are also awaiting guidance from mainstream steel tenders for pricing.
Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals saw no major changes. The economic conference in October was held, and the impact of macro policies on the market remains to be verified. In the short term, the SiMn market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak stability. The future price of SiMn alloy will depend on the guidance from steel tender pricing and the impact of the economic conference on the market.
