SMM

      This week (October 3–October 9), the SMM copper wire and cable enterprise operating rate was 58.53%, down 6.91 percentage points from before the holiday and down 24.72 percentage points YoY. The extended National Day holiday reduced effective production days, and copper prices surged on the first day after the holiday, suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Most enterprises reported insufficient follow-up on new orders, dragging down overall operating performance. This week's operating rate showed a double decline both YoY and MoM. By sector, automotive industry orders remained stable. Although State Grid released some orders, high copper prices quickly dampened market activity, and demand side soon returned to mediocre, failing to provide effective support. Inventory side, high copper prices after the holiday suppressed purchase willingness; raw material inventory ratio fell 3.51 percentage points this week to 14,030 mt. Due to slower-than-expected downstream cargo pick-up during the holiday, finished product inventory pressure increased; finished product inventory ratio rose 1.41 percentage points this week to 21,560 mt. Looking ahead to next week, although enterprises gradually resumed normal production, the surge in copper prices has shattered market optimism for the October peak season. Poor connection of new orders led to a slowdown in enterprise production schedules, making it difficult for the operating rate to rebound to pre-holiday levels soon. Many enterprises explicitly stated that if copper prices remain high, they will have to slow down overall production schedules. Therefore, SMM expects the copper wire and cable enterprise operating rate to rebound to 62.92% next week (October 10–October 16).