Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,865/mt, initially dipped to $2,857.5/mt, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $2,892/mt before closing at $2,887.5/mt, up $20.5/mt or 0.72%. Trading volume reached 87,370 lots, and open interest increased by 1,496 lots to 201,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2510 contract opened at 22,205 yuan/mt, initially declined to a low of 22,145 yuan/mt, then rose above the daily average line to a high of 22,275 yuan/mt as bears reduced positions, before pulling back slightly toward the end of the session and finally closing at 22,245 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.14%. Trading volume decreased to 46,330 lots, and open interest fell by 1,402 lots to 102,000 lots.
Macro: US August PPI year-on-year recorded 2.6%, the lowest since June; judge blocks removal of US Fed Governor Cook, Trump administration quickly appeals; US Department of Labor Office of Inspector General initiates review of Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Fed Governor nominee Milan passes Senate committee test as scheduled; India resists comprehensive cryptocurrency framework over systemic risk concerns; insiders: OpenAI signs $300 billion computing deal with Oracle; Wang Yi speaks with US Secretary of State Rubio by phone; Ministry of Natural Resources: China achieves major breakthroughs in oil, gas, and uranium ore exploration.
Spot:
Shanghai: Yesterday, the purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Shanghai area was 2.43, and the willingness to sell was 2.83. Futures continued to fluctuate, with Shanghai market traders mainly selling. Spot offers were basically stable in the morning session, while downstream enterprises in east China procured cautiously, maintaining just-in-time procurement. Overall trading showed mediocre performance, with no improvement from the previous day.
Guangdong: Yesterday, the purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Guangdong area was 2.06, and the sales willingness was 2.75. Overall, in the early session, spot premiums for Qilin brand were reported high, but downstream purchase willingness was low under high premiums. Downstream consumption remained sluggish, with enterprises making just-in-time procurement and market trading sluggish. Meanwhile, spot premiums in Guangdong continued to decline, and some traders' willingness to sell weakened.
Tianjin: Yesterday, the purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Tianjin area was 2.12, and the willingness to sell was 2.63. Zinc prices pulled back slightly yesterday, and downstream players maintained a wait-and-see attitude toward zinc prices, with most believing the trend is unclear. Just-in-time restocking dominated, while traders' willingness to sell remained slightly stable. Overall market transactions were average.
Ningbo: Few traders were selling in the Ningbo market, but some were unwilling to sell at low prices, leading to some divergence in spot offers. Although futures edged lower, Ningbo alloy plants procured on a just-in-time basis. Yesterday, spot premiums also remained stable, with no significant improvement in transactions.
Social Inventory: On September 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 mt to 50,825 mt, a decline of 0.39%. According to SMM communication, as of this Monday (September 8), the total SMM zinc ingot inventory across seven regions was 152,100 mt, an increase of 5,800 mt from September 1 and 3,200 mt from September 4, indicating a rise in domestic inventory.
Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 10/60 daily average providing some support below. US August PPI data fell more than expected, increasing market expectations for additional interest rate cuts, while overseas inventories decreased, pushing the LME zinc center higher. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, supported below by the lower Bollinger Band. Domestic supply remains loose, while the recovery in consumption vitality still requires time to materialize. Meanwhile, the continuously declining overseas zinc inventory continues to provide some support to the bottom of zinc prices.
Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
