Wednesday, September 3, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $9,873.5/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $9,851/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose all the way and touched a high of $10,015/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at $10,013.5/mt, up 1.4%, with trading volume reaching 26,000 lots and open interest reaching 277,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 79,500 yuan/mt overnight, initially fell to 79,470 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward and touched a high of 80,440 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at 80,410 yuan/mt, up 0.79%, with trading volume reaching 38,000 lots and open interest reaching 186,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
News:
(1) British Columbia, Canada approved Imperial Metals' expansion of the Springer pit at the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, extending its life by about eight years. The provincial government determined that the environmental impact was not significant after the court upheld the permit. The expansion includes deepening the pit, expanding the waste rock area, and encapsulating potentially acidic materials upon closure. The mine will continue to discharge water into Quesnel Lake. Mount Polley experienced a tailings dam breach in 2014, resumed production in 2022, and produced 35.7 million pounds of copper and 39,000 ounces of gold last year.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 2, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at a premium of 110-330 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 220 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 80,010-80,310 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2509 contract continued to surge, briefly touched 79,650 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before rising straight to a high, repeatedly hitting 80,000 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 79,930 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt or 0.22%. The intermonth spread showed contango 10-back 20 yuan/mt, and the import loss for SHFE copper front-month contract was about 150 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, with copper prices high, consumption is unlikely to show impressive performance, and spot premiums against the SHFE copper contract are expected to remain under pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On September 2, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 10-70 yuan/mt, with the average premium of 40 yuan/mt flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 60 yuan/mt flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,920 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,820 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices continued to rise, downstream restocking was not active, and overall trading was weak.
(3) Imported copper: On September 2, warrant prices were $49-61/mt, QP September, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $23-35/mt, QP October, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 2, the futures closing price was 79,930 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 220 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,500-73,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,852 yuan/mt, up 1,637 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,180 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap continued to widen, it reflected that the market circulation of recycled copper raw materials was relatively sufficient. No enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production yet. With weakening demand, the inventory held by recycled copper raw materials traders was significantly higher than before.
(5) Inventory: On September 1, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 100 mt to 158,775 mt. On September 2, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 699 mt to 19,501 mt.
Price: On the macro front, the Trump administration plans to hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday regarding the appeal of the tariff ruling. If the appeal fails, relevant tariffs may be revoked and taxes refunded, with the market closely watching the developments. Additionally, the new round of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, along with OPEC+'s expectation to maintain current production levels and pause further output increases at this weekend's meeting, jointly drove the continued upward trend in international crude oil prices, which is positive for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported and domestic supplies continued to arrive, but high-quality copper supply remained relatively tight, with the overall supply market being relatively loose. Demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment. Considering both macro and fundamental factors, it is expected that copper prices will have support below today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
