Aug 21, 2025
Guangdong Region: This week, premiums and discounts in the region showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. At the beginning of the week, premiums were under pressure and declined due to an increase in inventory. However, as downstream demand increased, premiums rose again. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday. Standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, also unchanged from last Thursday. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread between standard-quality copper premiums and discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong was 70 yuan/mt higher in Shanghai, with a relatively small spread that did not allow for cross-regional cargo transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, the total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 26,500 mt, a decrease of 328 mt from last Thursday. The total warrants amounted to 14,300 mt, a decrease of 1,500 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 11,200 mt/week, a decrease of 2,300 mt/week from last week, and below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). The main reason was the reduction in shipments from smelters after delivery and the decline in imported copper arrivals. Outflows from warehouses were 11,900 mt/week, a decrease of 1,500 mt/week from last week, and below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Although copper prices continued to decline, downstream consumption still did not improve. We expect consumption to fully improve only in September.
Looking ahead to next week, the arrival volume of domestically produced copper is expected to increase slightly, but the arrival volume of imported copper will still be relatively low. The total supply is expected to be slightly better than this week. In terms of downstream consumption, as it approaches month-end and new orders have not increased, consumption is expected to remain weak next week. Therefore, we believe that next week will see a situation of slightly increased supply and weak demand. Weekly inventory is expected to increase slightly, and spot premiums will remain in the doldrums.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
