As of Wednesday this week, the northern market SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was at 5,700-5,800 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan WoW; the southern market SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was at 5,750-5,850 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan WoW.
Cost side: Currently, manganese ore and coke prices are high, and the cost support for SiMn alloy remains firm. However, the recent manganese ore market has been consolidating with a weak bias, and market activity is declining. Manganese ore transaction prices have slightly decreased, and the sustainability of cost support needs to be tested.
Supply side: The sentiment for factory operations in both the northern and southern markets is positive. Currently, factories are mainly focusing on short-term orders. Factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions are actively stockpiling and producing, with low pressure on shipments. In Guangxi and Yunnan, production is gradually increasing, and the enthusiasm for production is good. However, sentiment-wise, the recent macro tailwinds are gradually cooling down, and the futures of manganese silicon are fluctuating downward. As a result, factories are cautious about shipments, and transaction prices are decreasing. At the beginning of this week, the market was waiting to see the impact of subsequent macro policies and steel mill production restrictions during the military parade on the SiMn market.
Demand side: HBIS has finalised its August tender price for SiMn at 6,200 yuan/mt by acceptance, which is in line with market expectations. After the mainstream steel tender prices were announced, other steel tenders are proceeding, and the overall cost support for SiMn still exists. Moreover, factories have long delivery dates, and there is little willingness to sell at low prices, making it difficult for steel mills to procure at low prices.
Overall, the strength of cost support and the demand for SiMn from steel mills in the short term need to be verified. Recently, the SiMn market may continue to operate cautiously and weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual support for alloy demand during the September peak season.
