SMM Tin Morning Briefing on August 20, 2025:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) rose slightly during the night session and then maintained a high-level sideways trend, closing at 268,800 yuan/mt, up 0.88% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) According to foreign media citing two sources, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick is studying federal government equity stakes in chip manufacturers building plants in the US under the CHIPS Act. This move extends the previous plan where the US intended to exchange cash subsidies for partial equity in Intel. A White House official and an informed source said that Lutnick is exploring how the US can acquire equity in companies like Micron Technology (MU.O), TSMC (TSM.N), and Samsung while providing them with CHIPS Act funds. Most of the funds have yet to be disbursed. (2) On August 19, Apple's iPhone 17 entered the mass production phase, with Foxconn, as the main toll processing producer for Apple's iPhones, initiating peak season recruitment at its Zhengzhou plant. (3) On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold small amounts of crypto assets, arguing that experience would help them better regulate these financial markets. Bowman stated that relaxing restrictions on employee investments could also aid in recruiting and retaining specialized bank examiners, and "minimal" holdings of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets would give employees practical knowledge of these products. "There is no substitute for firsthand experience in understanding the holding and transfer processes of crypto assets," she said in prepared remarks at a cryptocurrency conference in Wyoming. Bowman did not disclose specific details about the amount or type of holdings under consideration, but her comments further indicated a more friendly stance towards the cryptocurrency sector by regulators from the Trump administration.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply Disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing areas such as Yunnan remains tight, with some smelters expected to maintain production cuts or undergo maintenance in August (Bullish ★). (2) Demand: PV Industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV solder bars in east China have declined, leading to a decrease in operating rates for some producers; Electronics Industry: In south China, electronic end-users are entering the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only maintaining just-in-time procurement; Other Sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, and other sectors remains stable without any significant growth.
Spot Market: Spot market transactions remained mediocre yesterday, with some traders making deals of 10-20 mt, and a few trading over one truckload. Most downstream enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude, only engaging in just-in-time procurement.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in their decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
