Macro disturbances and weak fundamental realities are in a tug-of-war, with tin prices lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term [SMM tin futures brief comment]

Aug 06, 2025, at 5:39 pm

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: Macro Disturbances and Weak Fundamentals Create a Tug-of-War, Tin Prices Lack Breakthrough Momentum in the Short Term] On August 6, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 266,940 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up slightly by 0.3% from the previous day. The intraday amplitude narrowed to the range of 266,000-267,700 yuan/mt, continuing the recent pattern of fluctuating at highs. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was reported at $33,515/mt, up by 0.65%. The market was characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with macro disturbances and weak fundamentals creating a tug-of-war, resulting in a lack of breakthrough momentum for prices in the short term.

2025年8月6日，沪锡主力合约（2509）午后收报266940元/吨，较前一日微涨0.3%，日内振幅收窄至266000-267700元/吨区间，延续近期高位震荡格局。同期LME锡3个月合约报33515美元/吨，上涨0.65%，市场多空因素交织，宏观扰动与基本面弱现实形成拉锯，价格短期缺乏突破动能。

宏观层面的博弈主导情绪反复。一方面，美国经济数据疲软强化降息预期：7月ISM非制造业PMI降至50.1（预期51.5），叠加此前非农就业数据大幅低于预期，市场对滞胀风险的担忧升温，美元指数承压回落，一度提振金属价格。另一方面，贸易政策不确定性形成压制：特朗普预告将于下周公布针对芯片及芯片产品的新关税政策，并威胁24小时内大幅提高印度输美商品关税，加剧全球供应链成本传导担忧，风险偏好受挫。此外，美联储人事变动预期升温，特朗普声称“可能很快宣布新任主席”，政策连续性存疑进一步抑制市场信心。

技术面与资金情绪显示多空谨慎。沪锡主力合约26.8万元/吨压力位稳固，下方26.5万元/吨支撑，日内持仓量减少显示资金观望情绪浓厚。LME锡价短期或延续区间震荡。

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