August 4, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a fluctuating rangebound trend, closing at 266,300 yuan/mt, up 0.8% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) The Consumer Goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened a meeting to promote the implementation of new e-bike standards and the supply of new car models, comprehensively assessing producers' R&D and mass production of new standard vehicles, and coordinating solutions to difficulties encountered. The meeting emphasized that e-bike producers must fully recognize the importance and urgency of implementing the new standards, ensuring strict compliance while accelerating market supply to meet demand. (2) Tariffs—①U.S. Trade Representative: The new round of tariffs is "largely finalized" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations. ②Canadian Trade Minister: Prime Minister Carney and Trump are expected to hold talks in the coming days, with a potential agreement to reduce certain tariffs being an "option." ③Switzerland is willing to make concessions in trade proposals to the U.S. to lower tariffs by 39%.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production regions like Yunnan, with some smelters likely to maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry—After the installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics industry—End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders. Other sectors—Demand for tinplate and chemicals remained stable without exceeding expectations.
Spot market: Spot trades remained sluggish last week as price volatility dampened downstream purchase willingness. The mainstream quotation range was 264,000-268,000 yuan/mt, with traders generally reporting daily trading volumes of only around 10 mt, some even just a few mt. Downstream buyers mainly focused on "essential restocking with post-pricing purchases," with scarce high-price transactions.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid using it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
