SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 1, 2025:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened lower in the night session and maintained a low-level consolidation, closing at 264,200 yuan/mt, down 0.74% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) US President Trump signed an executive order setting "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for multiple countries and regions. According to the order, Taiwan was assigned a 20% reciprocal tariff. Unspecified countries will uniformly apply a 10% tariff rate. Additionally, goods from countries or regions circumventing tariffs through transshipment via third locations will be subject to a 40% transshipment tax. (2) Tariffs—① White House: Trump will sign an executive order on July 31 to impose higher tariff rates on multiple countries that fail to reach trade agreements by the August 1 deadline.
② US Treasury Secretary: The entire trade team is frustrated with India. ③ Malaysian Prime Minister: The US tariff rates on Malaysian goods will be announced soon. ④ India reportedly seeks to sign free trade agreements with several countries. ⑤ Trump stated the US-Mexico tariff agreement will be extended for 90 days, meaning Mexico will continue paying 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely to maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, tin bar orders in east China declined, and some producers reduced operating rates. Electronics industry: End-users in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders meeting only essential needs. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc., remained stable without exceeding expectations.
Spot market: Spot transactions recovered slightly, with some traders trading 20-30 mt and a few trading 2-3 truckloads. Downstream enterprises saw order growth and conducted minor restocking and essential purchases yesterday under inventory pressure.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid using it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
