SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 24, 2025:
Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened higher during the night session driven by LME and maintained high-range consolidation, closing at 273,200 yuan/mt, up 1.62% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) AMD (AMD.O) CEO Lisa Su stated at an AI event in Washington that chips obtained from TSMC's Arizona facility would be more expensive. Compared to similar components produced at TSMC's Taiwan plants, chips from the US facility would cost "5-20% more." (2) Tariffs—①EU officials claimed the US baseline tariff on EU goods is 15%, while the White House responded that all statements are speculative until Trump announces specifics. ②The EU is preparing to impose 30% tariffs on US goods worth 100 billion euros if no agreement is reached. ③US federal prosecutors are reportedly laying groundwork for criminal charges against companies and individuals attempting to evade US tariffs. ④The US is entering the final phase of anti-dumping investigations on certain steel imports. ⑤US Commerce Secretary: The Japan agreement could serve as a model for a trade deal with the EU. Major economies face difficulties in securing lower tariff rates. ⑥Trump: A simple tariff of 15-50% will be imposed on most countries. He remains willing to drop tariff provisions if major countries agree to open their markets to the US.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production regions like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: After the installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders. Other sectors: Demand remains stable in tinplate and chemical applications without exceeding expectations.
Spot market: Overall spot market transactions were weak, with most traders reporting single-digit deals. Downstream enterprises exhibited high wait-and-see sentiment amid the traditional solder consumption off-season, resulting in low order volumes.
[The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid using it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).]
