SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 22, 2025:
Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-level consolidation, closing at 267,500 yuan/mt, up 0.74% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) A person in charge of the Department of Circulation Development of the Ministry of Commerce discussed the development of China's wholesale and retail industries from January to June 2025. Since the beginning of this year, over 66 million consumers have purchased over 109 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances through trade-in policies, and over 69 million consumers have purchased over 74 million units of digital products such as mobile phones. Additionally, 82,000 sales outlets nationwide have launched e-bike trade-in programs, with a cumulative total of 9.056 million new vehicles traded in. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), from January to June, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment in units above designated size increased by 30.7% YoY, and the retail sales of communication equipment in units above designated size increased by 24.1% YoY. (Bullish ★) (2) The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the tax and spending bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA) recently signed into law by Trump will increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade. According to the CBO's analysis, the bill includes cuts to Medicaid and other expenditures, as well as provisions that will lead to 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034. The CBO's scoring reflects that, compared to the current law baseline, US revenue will decrease by $4.5 trillion and spending will decrease by $110 million by 2034. (3) Tariffs - ① EU diplomat: The EU is exploring broader potential countermeasures against US tariffs. ② Indonesia: A 19% US tariff may take effect before August 1, depending on a joint statement. ③ US Treasury Secretary: More concerned about high-quality deals than completing them before August 1. No need to fall out with Europe. ④ The Indian trade delegation has returned to India and is expected to reach a deal with the US before September to October.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in July. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. Electronics industry: The electronics terminal market in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment among terminals, and orders are only maintained to meet immediate needs. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc. remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.
Spot Market: The spot market remains sluggish, with overall trading volume being low. Most traders have only single-digit transactions, and a few traders have transactions of around one truckload. Traders reported that downstream enterprises had basically no purchase intentions yesterday, with few orders placed, and the orders were placed at low levels.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
