》Check SMM's aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM News on June 17:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,365 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,475 yuan/mt, a low of 20,365 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,460 yuan/mt, up 0.37%. Trading volume was 59,100 lots, and open interest was 199,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the market is closely watching the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week, which is set to conclude on Wednesday. The market widely expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remained stable, with reduced casting ingot volumes contributing to ongoing destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, alumina and auxiliary material prices are expected to weaken, weakening cost support for aluminum. Demand side, the sector is facing dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, with aluminum processing enterprises' operating rates expected to come under pressure in the short term. Overall, current low inventory and expectations of a rising proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but off-season pressures on the demand side limit upside room. Spot aluminum ingot in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, with aluminum prices expected to hold up well in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,853 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,864 yuan/mt, a low of 2,842 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,860 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Trading volume was 109,000 lots, and open interest was 299,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: Last week, alumina's operating capacity rose 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year. Spot supply was relatively looser compared to the previous period, with aluminum smelters' total weekly alumina inventory rising by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. In the short term, alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. Recently, some ex-factory prices of around 3,100 yuan/mt have been reported in the northern alumina spot market, with sporadic spot transactions reported in south-west China at transaction prices discounted to the online price, which is expected to drive alumina spot prices to pull back. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in domestic alumina enterprises' capacity, as well as the supply of imported alumina.
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