At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Coal Session, the Deputy General Manager of Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd. provided an analysis of China's coal market situation (with a focus on the Asian market).
In 2024, China's coal prices showed a downward trend, which is expected to continue into 2025
, with spot prices lower than futures contract prices.
On May 23, 2025, the prices of thermal coal were as follows:
• CCI 5500 was 618 yuan/mt, 57 yuan/mt lower than the monthly futures contract price.
• CCI 5000 was 536 yuan/mt, 78 yuan/mt lower than the monthly futures contract price.
• CCI 4500 was 469 yuan/mt, 83 yuan/mt lower than the monthly futures contract price.
There has been a significant expansion in the capacity of operating coal mines, and a net increase is still expected by 2025.
• In 2024, China's new capacity additions: 85.9 million mt/year (64.8 million mt/year for thermal coal and 21.1 million mt/year for coking coal).
• In 2024, China's capacity retirements: 17.8 million mt/year (12.3 million mt/year for thermal coal and 5.6 million mt/year for coking coal).
• It is expected that China will add 100 million mt/year of capacity in 2025, including 77 million mt/year for thermal coal.
• It is expected that China will retire 24 million mt/year of capacity in 2025, including 18 million mt/year for thermal coal.
The Deputy General Manager also elaborated on the sufficient production capacity of standby coal mines.
In 2025, coal production is expected to grow mildly, but demand will constrain the growth rate.
► Raw coal production:
• Increased production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia offset production cuts in Shanxi. China's raw coal production improved MoM, reaching 4.78 billion mt in 2024, up 1.5% YoY.
• Shanxi's production has returned to normal in 2025, and China's raw coal production is expected to increase by 0.7% YoY, reaching 4.813 billion mt in 2025.
• From January to April 2025, raw coal production increased by 6.6% YoY.
• The recovery of supply in Shanxi is expected to drive an overall increase in production.
• Declining demand will constrain production growth.
• Production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.7% YoY.
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