Futures Market:
Last Friday evening, LME lead was closed due to the holiday.
Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened with a gap at a low of 16,820 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward, touched a high of 16,880 yuan/mt, then experienced a slight correction, and subsequently consolidated around 16,850 yuan/mt, finally closing at 16,870 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.24%.
Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotations
Macro Perspective: Citi expects global economic growth to slow to 2.1% this year from slightly below 3% last year, as the impact of widespread US tariffs continues to manifest, and forecasts a slight rebound to 2.3% in 2026. On the eve of the long Easter holiday, the US dollar ended lower against major currencies. Trump's tariff war triggered "internal chaos," with US media reporting over 700 protests nationwide.
In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at premiums of 80-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract, while Jijin lead was quoted at premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at premiums of 30-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. SHFE lead fluctuated upward, suppliers' willingness to sell increased, warrant supply was limited, and quotations remained unchanged from the previous day. However, ex-factory quotations for primary lead smelters widened to discounts of 20-50 yuan/mt (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract), while secondary lead smelters followed the market to sell, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory. Downstream enterprises showed limited interest in inquiries, with only a few purchasing at discounts, resulting in weak market transactions.
Inventory: As of April 17, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 mt to 281,625 mt, the highest level since March 12, 2013. SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions totaled 62,900 mt, down 6,600 mt from April 10 and down 3,700 mt from April 14.
Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Scrap battery prices remain high, squeezing secondary lead smelting profits, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among smelters. Additionally, as the Labour Day holiday approaches, the lead-acid battery market's off-season trend intensifies, with some downstream enterprises considering production cuts or early holidays. Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to decline. Recently, post-delivery supply re-entered the circulation market, and some downstream enterprises gradually transferred lead inventory from social warehouses. After probing lows, lead prices rebounded, and the reduction in visible inventory may boost the upward movement of the lead price center.
