Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,924/mt. As the negative impact of US tariff risks dissipated and the US dollar index stabilized, LME lead consolidated throughout the day. However, the LME lead inventory increased by nearly 10,000 mt in a single day, and the high inventory pressure caused LME lead to give back some of its gains, approaching the $1,900/mt mark. LME lead finally closed at $1,911/mt, down 0.03%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 16,785 yuan/mt. As the front-month contract approached delivery, lead warrant inventories accumulated, and SHFE lead weakened at the start of the session, falling below 16,800 yuan/mt. In the latter half of the session, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensified, and SHFE lead consolidated for a long time between 16,825-16,860 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 16,825 yuan/mt, down 0.56%. Its open interest stood at 32,470 lots, down 269 lots from the previous trading day.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes
Macro: US Treasury Secretary Beshent "rescued the market": there is no evidence that sovereign countries are selling US bonds, and it is necessary to increase US bond repurchases. The next Fed Chairman will be discussed in the fall. Meanwhile, China's exports in March increased 12.4% YoY in US dollar terms, while imports fell 4.3%. China's integrated circuit imports in March increased 11% YoY, natural gas imports fell 15%, and soybean imports dropped 37%.
In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead maintained a high consolidation. As delivery approached, some suppliers waited for delivery, and market quotations were limited, with some at premiums. Primary lead smelters' ex-factory cargoes were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, while secondary lead smelters increased discounts. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream enterprises were cautious about high prices and made limited purchases, with only some making just-in-time procurement. In the trade market, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions quoted premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract.
Inventory: As of April 14, LME lead inventory increased by 9,900 mt to 257,325 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions totaled 66,600 mt, down 3,300 mt from April 7 and down 2,900 mt from April 10.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, due to shrinking lead smelting profits, secondary lead enterprises' production enthusiasm has declined. According to SMM data, as of April 11, the weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 61.18%, down 1.28 percentage points from the previous week. Today, the SHFE lead 2504 contract is about to enter delivery, and the spot market has limited circulating cargoes in the short term. At the same time, the lead-acid battery market is in the traditional off-season, with some companies cutting production. Additionally, most downstream companies had stocked up on low-priced inventory during last week's lead price decline, leading to a significant weakening in procurement enthusiasm this week. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate. Moreover, domestic and overseas lead inventories have diverged recently, with overseas lead inventories increasing almost daily. From the internal and external structure, there are conditions for lead ingot imports, and subsequent import opportunities should be monitored.
