Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,872.5/mt, briefly touched a low of $1,870.5/mt at the beginning of the session, and rebounded to a high of $1,911/mt driven by macro sentiment and increased long positions in non-ferrous metals. During the European session, it pulled back slightly and finally closed at $1,890/mt, up 1.34%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at a low of 16,735 yuan/mt, fluctuated within a narrow range, reached a high of 16,840 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,795 yuan/mt, up 0.96%.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes
Macro News:
Trump: The first agreement on tariffs is very close to being reached. Tariffs may bring "transitional issues," but the US is currently in a very good state. According to US media reports: The White House trade team has undergone a reshuffle, with the hawkish Commerce Secretary and trade advisor being marginalized, and the Treasury Secretary taking charge of trade affairs. China's March CPI fell 0.1% YoY; March PPI fell 2.5% YoY. The 2025 China Export Control Work Conference was held in Beijing. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to whether China is negotiating with the US: The door is open for talks; if it’s a fight, we will accompany to the end. China's Ministry of Commerce: Recently organized a symposium to study ways to help foreign trade companies expand domestic sales channels. The current bonded policies in special customs supervision areas within the pilot free trade zones remain unchanged.
In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,770-16,825 yuan/mt, with a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at 16,750-16,775 yuan/mt, at parity with the SHFE lead 2505 contract. SHFE lead rebounded, reversing the previous day's decline. Suppliers became more active in selling, with increased quotations, while downstream companies, having already bought the dip in the past few days, generally turned to a wait-and-see stance today, resulting in fewer purchases and sluggish market transactions.
Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory increased by 6,850 mt to 242,450 mt. As of April 10, SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions totaled 69,500 mt, down by more than 500 mt from April 3 and down by about 400 mt from April 7.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
This week, under the impact of the US-China trade dispute, non-ferrous metals generally weakened, with SHFE lead also experiencing a significant decline. The most-traded SHFE lead contract once fell to 16,165 yuan/mt. As lead prices fell, the prices of raw materials such as scrap followed with limited declines, turning secondary lead smelting profits into losses. Lead smelters became less active in selling, and the willingness to cut production increased. Some suppliers even suspended sales. For example, in Henan, primary lead quotations shifted from discounts to premiums, with premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. Traders also reduced quotations or waited for delivery. Meanwhile, downstream companies were more inclined to purchase as needed at low prices, with both inquiries and purchases improving WoW. Spot market transactions shifted from a selling bias to a buying bias, leading to a decline in social inventory, though the drop was relatively small. Additionally, as lead prices stabilized and rebounded, attention will be on the production dynamics of secondary lead smelters and the potential for inventory shifts due to the delivery of the SHFE lead 2504 contract next week.
