The US dollar weakened, metals nearly all declined across the board, SHFE copper hit the limit down, SHFE silver, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel all fell by more than 7%. [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 7 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper hit the lower limit during the day, briefly opened, but hit the lower limit again shortly after the afternoon session opened, reported at 73,640 yuan/mt. SHFE tin fell 8.57%, SHFE nickel fell 7.51%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead both fell over 3%, with SHFE aluminum down 3.67% and SHFE lead down 3.11%. SHFE zinc had the smallest drop, at 2.23%. Alumina main contract fell 3.82%. In addition, lithium carbonate main contract fell 3%, silicon metal main contract fell 2.7%, polysilicon main contract fell 0.67%, and the European container shipping main contract plunged 10.55%. In the overseas market, as of 15:09, base metals except LME copper and LME aluminum all fell. LME tin led the decline with a 3.25% drop, while LME lead, LME zinc, and LME nickel all fell over 1%, with LME lead down 1.52%, LME zinc down 1.88%, and LME nickel down 1.48%. LME aluminum rose 0.32%, and LME copper edged up 0.04%. The ferrous metals series also collectively declined, with stainless steel and iron ore both falling over 3%, stainless steel down 3.87%, iron ore down 3.36%, rebar down 2.59%, and HRC down 3.06%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.06%, and coke fell 2.21%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:09, COMEX gold rose 0.39%, and COMEX silver rose 2.26%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.85%, and SHFE silver plunged 9.03%. As of 15:09 today, click to view the SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 PM on April 10, 2025. The spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and answer questions from reporters. The PBOC announced that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of March were $3.241 trillion, up $13.4 billion from the end of February, an increase of 0.42%. In March 2025, influenced by macroeconomic data, fiscal and monetary policies, and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index fell, and global financial asset prices generally declined. The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes led to an increase in foreign exchange reserves for the month. China's economic operation remained stable and progressive, with a package of existing and incremental policies continuing to take effect, and high-quality development steadily advancing, providing support for the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves. On April 7, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1980 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:09, the US dollar index fell 0.51%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in March recorded 228,000, higher than the market expectation of 135,000. Traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate cut in May, expecting June to be the possible starting point for rate cuts. They continued to bet on four rate cuts by the US Fed by the end of the year. Short-term interest rate futures traders expect the US Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points by June. On April 4, local time, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US Fed was shocked by the scope of tariffs imposed by US President Trump, indicating that the impact of tariffs on the economy would be greater than previously thought. He also warned that it was too early to know what the right response from the US Fed should be. "We are facing a highly uncertain outlook, with risks of rising unemployment and inflation," he said, adding that the US Fed has time to wait for more data before deciding how monetary policy should respond. This week, attention should be paid to the March inflation data of China and the US. Data: Today, Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month for February, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production year-on-year for February, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports month-on-month for February, the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for April, the Eurozone's retail sales month-on-month for February, the Eurozone's retail sales year-on-year for February, the global leading indicator of industrial production cycle turning points for March, and Canada's leading indicator month-on-month for March will be released. Crude Oil: As of 15:09, oil prices in both markets fell over 3%, with US oil down 3.74% and Brent oil down 3.54%. After the implementation of the new US tariff policy, market concerns about the risk of a global economic recession significantly increased, further pressuring the demand expectations of the crude oil market. Citibank predicts that a 10% tariff could reduce the global oil demand growth expectation for 2025 from 900,000 barrels/day to 600,000 barrels/day. The global crude oil demand outlook itself is already not optimistic. In recent years, driven by the strategic goal of carbon neutrality, major economies have accelerated the transformation of their energy structures, and the substitution process of renewable energy for traditional fossil fuels has been speeding up. Currently, the recovery of major global economies is weak, and oil consumption growth has generally slowed. Coupled with the impact of the new US government's tariff policy, major institutions have raised the probability predictions of a hard landing for the US economy and a global economic recession, and systemic risks in financial markets have sharply increased. On the other hand, OPEC+, as the main support for international oil prices, surprisingly decided to significantly increase production in May, putting more pressure on the already weak crude oil market. According to a statement released on the OPEC website on April 3, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply to the market by 411,000 barrels/day in May, three times the original plan. This move mainly targets Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia, which have repeatedly exceeded production quotas, aiming to warn them of the potential consequences of their violations through practical actions. SMM Daily Review: Trade conflict escalation hits aluminum prices hard, secondary aluminum prices fall more slowly [ADC12 Price Daily Review]. [SMM MHP Daily Review] April 7, Indonesian MHP prices pulled back. [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] April 7, nickel sulphate prices remained stable. Silver market opened low and rose high, traders took a wait-and-see approach [SMM Daily Review].

SMM

The US dollar weakened, metals nearly all declined across the board, SHFE copper hit the limit down, SHFE silver, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel all fell by more than 7%. [SMM Daily Review]

Shanghai Futures Exchange Metal Inventory Daily Report on April 7

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