【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of the Electrolyzer Industry, 20250321-20250327

Capacity-wise, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market maintained 35.77 GW this week, with no new capacity added. In terms of deliveries, Asahi Hydrogen Energy delivered one 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline unit to Australia last week, while Xibei Hydrogen Energy delivered one 1,000 Nm³/h unit to a green hydrogen project in Jilin. On the PEM front, Hydrogen Energy delivered one 50 Nm³/h unit to Europe last week. As of March 20, 2025, domestic companies (including overseas deliveries) have delivered a total of 10 MW of alkaline electrolyzers (data sourced from public information). In terms of electrolyzer orders, a total of 46 units of 1,000 Nm³/h have been confirmed this week, including 10 units from Xingong Green Hydrogen, 16 units from Sungrow Hydrogen, 12 units from CRRC Zhuzhou, and 8 units from Sany Hydrogen. Assuming all 46 units can be delivered by December 31, 2025, the total delivery volume of alkaline electrolyzers in 2025 will reach 1,350 MW, representing a growth of approximately 30%. I. Enterprise Cooperation and Project Implementation International Hydrogen Energy Conference Showcases Cooperation Achievements The "2025 International Hydrogen Energy Conference," hosted by the China Hydrogen Alliance and the China Electricity Council, was held in Beijing on March 26-27. The National Energy Group showcased its achievements in the hydrogen energy industry over the past decade through the "National Energy Hydrogen Technology Open Day" exhibition area, including core equipment such as PEM electrolyzer testing platforms and intelligent hydrogen refueling robots. This exhibition marked the deepening of the National Energy Group's innovation in hydrogen energy technology and industry chain integration, further solidifying its leading position in the "green hydrogen energy industry chain." Hydrogen Energy Group Accelerates National Layout Hydrogen Energy Group has previously launched multiple electrolyzer manufacturing and green hydrogen projects in Jinhu, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia. According to the plan, the Jinhu project will commence in H2 2025, with total investment completed in three phases. The first phase will invest approximately 950 million yuan, aiming to achieve batch deliveries in 2026-2027. The group is simultaneously advancing the R&D and manufacturing of alkaline electrolyzers (current density of 8,000 A/m², comprehensive energy consumption of 4.5 kWh/Nm³) and PEM electrolyzers, leveraging the R&D advantages of the Yangtze River Delta to radiate across the national hydrogen energy market. II. Enterprise Dynamics and Progress CSSC Peric Hydrogen Expands Overseas Market As a top-tier enterprise in the electrolyzer industry, CSSC (Handan) Peric Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved overseas orders of 900 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 64% of its total order value (1.4 billion yuan), demonstrating the international competitiveness of Chinese hydrogen energy enterprises. Its third-generation AEM (anion exchange membrane) electrolyzer technology has been commercialized, with single-unit hydrogen production exceeding 3,000 Nm³/h and commercial deliveries completed. Independent technological innovation has become the key to its global market expansion. Sany Hydrogen Supports Liquid Sunshine Project Sany Hydrogen Co., Ltd. won the bid for the "100,000 mt Liquid Sunshine Project" of China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., providing eight 1,200 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers and supporting systems. This project is the world's first large-scale industrial demonstration of liquid sunshine technology, synthesizing liquid methanol through hydrogen production via water electrolysis, achieving efficient carbon dioxide conversion. It is expected to become a benchmark for the integration of hydrogen energy and carbon cycle technologies. Dongfang Electric Advances Capacity Expansion Dongfang Electric Group Dongfang Boiler Co., Ltd. initiated a procurement tender for a hydrogen production electrolyzer production line in the Zigong Land Port Hydrogen Energy Park, with a project budget of 10 million yuan. The winning bidder is required to complete the delivery and installation of the main equipment within 60 days. This move indicates that Dongfang Electric is accelerating the expansion of hydrogen energy equipment capacity to meet the rapidly growing market demand for electrolyzers. III. Electrolyzer Tenders and Procurement Price War Intensifies: Electrolyzer Prices Halved in Two Years In the March tender for the China Coal Ordos Green Methanol Project, CRRC Zhuzhou won the bid with a price of approximately 3 million yuan per 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzer unit (excluding BOP), a 50% decrease compared to similar projects in 2023 (e.g., the Ji'an Da'an project, priced at 6.98 million yuan per unit). The price plunge reflects the supply-demand imbalance in the electrolyzer market: by the end of 2024, the nominal capacity of domestic electrolyzers exceeded 50 GW, while the actual tender volume was only 1.6 GW, with a supply-demand gap exceeding 30 times. 2025 Tender Volume Expected to Double Despite the price decline, the domestic electrolyzer tender volume in 2025 is expected to exceed 3 GW, up over 100% YoY. Projects such as Shenneng Otog and Zhongtian Hechuang have recently released over 1 GW of demand, while demonstration projects like Ji'an Da'an Green Ammonia and Nengjian Songyuan Green Ammonia will commence production within the year, boosting industry confidence. However, with increasing market concentration, small and medium-sized enterprises face survival pressure, and some producers lacking technological advantages may be forced to exit. Technology Route Diversification: Alkaline Dominates, PEM Breaks Through Currently, alkaline electrolyzers account for 98.6% of the market share, but the advantages of PEM (proton exchange membrane) electrolyzers in distributed energy scenarios are gradually emerging. As price competition intensifies, alkaline electrolyzers need to reduce costs through large-scale single units (e.g., 3,000 Nm³/h), while PEM technology needs to balance efficiency and cost to break through commercialization bottlenecks.

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【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of the Electrolyzer Industry, 20250321-20250327

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