March 10, 2025, Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract
Market Update:
During the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract continued to fluctuate upward. It closed at 262,220 yuan/mt at midday, up 290 yuan (0.11%) from the previous settlement price. The intraday high reached 263,600 yuan/mt, while the low dipped to 261,020 yuan/mt. Trading activity remained robust, with a trading volume of 59,900 lots.
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Domestic Policy Support: The State Council's "trade-in" policy continues to gain traction. Coupled with expectations of peak consumption seasons in downstream sectors such as semiconductors and PV, market confidence in the recovery of tin demand has strengthened.
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Weaker US Dollar Support: The US dollar index hovered around 103.8, driving a rebound in the metals sector. SHFE tin followed the overseas market, with LME tin currently quoted at $32,400/mt, to move higher.
Afternoon Focus:
- Overseas Market Linkage: LME tin is currently down slightly by 0.15%. If LME tin prices pull back further in the afternoon, SHFE tin may face increased downward pressure.
- Policy Expectations: Details of the domestic "ultra-long-term special government bonds" may be announced during the Two Sessions. If the outcome falls short of expectations, bullish sentiment could cool.
