Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,986/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session. Due to weak US consumer confidence data, the US dollar index pulled back slightly but remained above the 106 mark, ultimately closing with a small decline. During the European session, LME lead first dipped and then rebounded, briefly touching a low of $1,978/mt before climbing, peaking at $2,011.5/mt by the end of the session, and closing at $2,000/mt, up 0.76%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2504 contract opened at 17,125 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 17,090 yuan/mt in early trading. Later, supported by the upward movement of LME lead, it rebounded, peaking at 17,170 yuan/mt by the end of the session and closing at 17,165 yuan/mt, up 0.2%.
》Click to View SMM Lead Spot Historical Prices
Macro:
US President Trump announced an investigation into the copper industry. Officials indicated that Trump favors imposing copper tariffs rather than quotas, citing copper as a national security issue due to demand from electric vehicles and AI. A copper shortage is predicted, with the investigation timetable and tariff levels yet to be determined. US consumer confidence in February saw its largest monthly decline in over three years, with pessimism about the future resurging. The 14th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of China concluded in Beijing. Chinese Premier Qiang Li emphasized during his visits to enterprises under China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile the need to accelerate technological innovation in emerging frontier fields, better cultivate new productive forces, and promote high-quality development.
In the Shanghai market, Honglu lead was quoted at 17,090-17,110 yuan/mt, with discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Yuguang, Jijin, and JCC lead were quoted at 17,090-17,110 yuan/mt, also with discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. SHFE lead continued to consolidate at high levels, with suppliers maintaining premiums and discounts unchanged from the previous day. Meanwhile, ex-factory quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production sites by smelters remained at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 150 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, with a few premium quotations adjusted downward. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory, with some as low as discounts of 150 yuan/mt. Additionally, downstream enterprises have stabilized production after resuming operations, purchasing raw materials as needed. Some enterprises focused on long-term contract purchases, while spot order transactions were moderate.
Inventory: As of February 25, LME lead inventory decreased by 850 mt to 219,700 mt. As of February 24, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions reached 59,900 mt, an increase of 6,600 mt compared to February 17 and approximately 400 mt higher than February 20.
》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database
Lead Price Forecast Today:
Recently, the lead ingot market has seen relatively ample circulating supply, with downstream battery producers mostly producing based on sales, and only a few operating at full capacity. Lead ingot procurement demand remains limited in the short term. While there are several bearish factors for lead prices, the tight supply-demand balance on the raw material side continues to provide some support. However, some smelters in certain regions reported moderate arrivals of scrap batteries, and further observation of raw material supply changes is needed.
