SMM, February 13:
Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, prices continued to show a significant upward trend during the week, driven by reduced supply and increased downstream demand. Specifically, CNOOC's refineries saw a continued upward trend in petroleum coke bidding prices during the week, though the rate of increase slowed. Current refinery quotes are concentrated at 5,700 yuan/mt, up by 200 yuan/mt. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China, with low inventory and good sales, significantly raised petroleum coke prices during the week, with current quotes ranging from 5,300 to 6,000 yuan/mt, up by 1,150–1,400 yuan/mt. For Sinopec, active downstream purchasing and good refinery sales led to a significant price increase in petroleum coke during the week. Additionally, local refineries also reported good sales, with petroleum coke prices continuing to rise. Currently, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries is approximately 3,133 yuan/mt, up 36% MoM. Domestic petroleum coke supply has significantly decreased due to poor refining margins and maintenance shutdowns at some refineries, directly driving price increases. Furthermore, strong buying sentiment from downstream enterprises has provided robust support for the price surge. This round of price increases may exert some cost pressure on downstream industries, but given the current supply-demand pattern, a short-term reversal is unlikely. In the coal tar pitch market, prices showed slight strengthening during the week. As of Thursday, SMM data indicated an average price of 3,838 yuan/mt, up 0.79% MoM. Overall, cost-side support for prebaked anodes has significantly strengthened.
In terms of supply, prebaked anode enterprises are producing based on orders, with overall supply remaining relatively sufficient. Although some enterprises have experienced reduced operating rates and production due to environmental protection policies and equipment maintenance, overall production remains stable. On the demand side, domestic aluminum operating capacity has shown slight growth, and demand for prebaked anodes in the domestic market remains relatively strong.
Brief Comment: Due to the continued price increases in raw materials such as petroleum coke and coal tar pitch, the production cost of prebaked anodes has been rising. According to SMM data, as of February 13, the cost of prebaked anodes in China reached 6,099 yuan/mt, up 27.85% from the Thursday before the holiday. During the week, the petroleum coke market experienced comprehensive price increases due to tight supply and strong downstream demand. This has led to a sharp rise in prebaked anode costs, providing strong support for prebaked anode prices next month. SMM expects prebaked anode prices to see a significant increase next month.
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