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Downstream Stockpiling and Deliveries Intertwined, Social Inventory of Lead Ingots Increased Much Less Than Last Month [SMM Lead Ingot Social Inventory]
Jan 16, 2025, at 2:13 pm
[SMM Lead Ingot Social Inventory: Downstream Stockpiling and Delivery Intertwined, Social Inventory Increase Far Below Last Month] This week, the SHFE lead 2501 contract completed delivery, with the transfer of delivery brands contributing to a partial increase in social inventory. Currently, it is two weeks before the Chinese New Year. Due to differences in the suspension time of logistics and the holiday schedules of downstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have gradually carried out routine stockpiling of lead ingots...
SMM reported on January 16: According to SMM, as of January 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM reached 46,700 mt, an increase of approximately 800 mt compared to January 9, but a decrease of 900 mt compared to January 13.
This week, the SHFE lead 2501 contract completed delivery, with the transfer of delivery brands contributing to part of the increase in social inventory. Currently, it is two weeks before the Chinese New Year. Due to differences in the suspension times of logistics and the holiday schedules of downstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have gradually conducted routine pre-holiday restocking of lead ingots, consuming both smelters' in-plant inventory and social inventory. Lead smelters and traders have also been actively clearing inventory before the holiday, leading to a narrowing of overall spot premiums on par with last week. Quotations for primary lead spot orders were at premiums of 0-200 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price on an ex-factory basis.
Next week, as the Chinese New Year approaches, most logistics vehicles are expected to suspend operations, and more downstream enterprises will go on holiday, further weakening lead market transactions. Subsequent inventory buildup of lead ingots is expected to rise, and due to transportation issues, this may be more reflected in smelters' in-plant inventory.
