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Macro
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01
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【National Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Prices Rose 0.1% YoY in December 2024, Up 0.2% for the Full Year】
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2024, national consumer prices rose 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban prices increased by 0.1%, while rural prices remained flat; food prices fell by 0.5%, non-food prices rose by 0.2%; consumer goods prices dropped by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. In December, national consumer prices remained flat MoM. For the full year of 2024, national consumer prices rose 0.2% compared to the previous year.
02
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【National Bureau of Statistics: PPI Fell 2.3% YoY in December 2024, Down 2.2% for the Full Year】
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2024, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) and purchasing price index both fell 2.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; both indices fell 0.1% MoM. For the full year of 2024, the PPI and purchasing price index both decreased by 2.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous year.
03
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【Ministry of Commerce: EU Practices in Investigations Against Chinese Enterprises Constitute Trade and Investment Barriers】
The Ministry of Commerce announced that, upon the application of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, and in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and the Rules on Trade Barrier Investigations, it issued Announcement No. 28 of 2024 on July 10, 2024, deciding to conduct a trade and investment barrier investigation into the practices adopted by the EU in its investigations against Chinese enterprises under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and its implementing rules.
The investigation has now concluded. Based on the investigation results and Article 31 of the Rules on Trade Barrier Investigations, the Ministry of Commerce determined that the practices adopted by the EU in its investigations against Chinese enterprises under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and its implementing rules fall under the circumstances specified in Article 3 of the Rules on Trade Barrier Investigations, constituting trade and investment barriers.
04
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【Zhanjie Zheng: Addressing Disorderly Competition and "Cut-Throat Competition" While Promoting Industrial Upgrading to Support High-Quality Development of Manufacturing】
Zhanjie Zheng, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated in an article that the key development and reform tasks for 2025 must be carried out without compromise. Efforts should be accelerated to build a modern industrial system. Addressing disorderly competition and "cut-throat competition" should be combined with industrial upgrading to strongly support the high-quality development of manufacturing. The implementation of the national strategic emerging industry cluster development program and the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative should be deepened to accelerate the development of emerging industries and the cultivation of future industries. The improvement of data infrastructure should be expedited, a nationwide integrated computing power network should be established, and pilot projects for "data as a factor" should be advanced. Pilot projects for the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries should also be deepened.
05
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【Zhanjie Zheng: Implementing Special Actions to Boost Consumption and Promote Its Expansion and Efficiency】
Zhanjie Zheng, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated in an article that the key development and reform tasks for 2025 must be carried out without compromise. Efforts should be made to comprehensively expand domestic demand. The "Two Major" initiatives should be promoted from top to bottom, better coordinating "hard investments" and "soft construction," improving investment fields, increasing project support ratios, and strengthening supporting financing such as ultra-long-term loans. Efforts should be intensified to advance the "Two New" initiatives, further expanding the scope and intensity of support, and strengthening full-chain management of projects and funds. Special actions to boost consumption should be implemented, focusing on increasing income and reducing burdens, enriching supply, reducing restrictions, and optimizing the environment, closely integrating consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods to promote the expansion and efficiency of consumption. Various types of government construction funds should be coordinated and utilized, accelerating fund allocation and project construction to quickly generate more tangible work output. The national financing credit service platform and the national platform for promoting projects to private capital should be utilized to stimulate private investment vitality.
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Industry and Downstream
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01
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【SMM Inventory Data】
This week, total rebar inventory was 3.8817 million mt, up 90,800 mt WoW (2.40%), but down 39.31% YoY.
The total inventory of wire rods reached 956,600 mt, up 22,400 mt WoW, up 2.40% MoM, and down 42.30% YoY.
★★ 【Henan: Supporting Leading Enterprises Like BYD to Lead the Establishment of NEV Industry-Education Integration Communities】
The Henan Provincial Department of Education issued a notice focusing on the development of the NEV industry. It supports BYD Co., Ltd. and other leading enterprises in the industry to collaborate with high-level vocational schools to lead the establishment of NEV industry-education integration communities. These communities will involve relevant undergraduate universities, vocational schools, research institutes, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain within the province. The aim is to build a mechanism for aligning industry and education supply and demand, jointly conduct talent training, collaborate on technological breakthroughs, and promote precise alignment between the education chain and the industry chain.
★★ 【Beijing: A New Round of "Trade-In" Policy Measures to Be Introduced】
On January 9, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission held a media briefing on Q1 "Good Start" policy measures. At the meeting, a relevant official from the commission introduced six major actions and 51 specific measures to ensure a good start to this year's economic development in Q1. The reform and breakthrough action includes planning and introducing a batch of policy measures, with 12 specific measures mainly focusing on both supply and demand ends—promoting industry development, advancing cultural sector reforms, and finalizing the first batch of cultural and heritage unit reform pilot lists in Q1. It also includes strengthening support for advanced manufacturing development, releasing the annual funding guide for high-tech industry development projects by the end of January, stimulating consumption potential, seizing opportunities in inbound tourism, utilizing the extended visa-free stay policy of up to 240 hours, launching the "Hello, Beijing" promotional campaign, striving to increase international flights, and positioning Beijing as the first stop for inbound tourists from Southeast Asia, Europe and the US, Belt and Road countries, and visa-free nations. Additionally, it aims to establish a collaborative mechanism among commerce, culture, tourism, and sports departments to promote consumption, develop district-wide tourism plans, cultivate a batch of market entities, and introduce a new round of "trade-in" policy measures.
★★ 【Fujian: Accelerating the Implementation of Housing Ticket Resettlement and Increasing Housing Fund Support】
The Fujian Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued "Several Measures to Promote a Good Start for the Real Estate Market in Q1 2025," introducing innovative sales promotion measures. Cities and counties with favorable conditions are encouraged to launch promotional policies such as housing subsidies and consumption vouchers during housing exhibitions. Local governments should draw on the experiences of Xiamen, Nanping, and other regions to accelerate the implementation of housing ticket resettlement, offering rewards for purchasing homes within a specified period, including compensation for equity funds, transition fees, and deed tax exemptions, and encouraging displaced households to expedite home purchases. Shared ownership housing and housing trade-ins are also being promoted. Efforts to increase housing fund support include allowing local governments to appropriately raise the maximum housing fund loan limits for families with multiple children based on local conditions, supporting inter-city housing fund withdrawals for home purchases within the province, and enabling intergenerational mutual assistance for housing fund withdrawals. Until December 31, 2025, parents and children of homebuyers who purchase self-occupied housing within the province and meet the withdrawal conditions can apply to withdraw housing funds to support the purchase. Local governments may formulate detailed rules based on actual conditions.
★★ 【Cao Junjie, Member of the Standing Committee of the Chengdu Municipal Party Committee: Accelerating the Construction of Sichuan-Chongqing Direct-Connection Infrastructure Projects】
Cao Junjie, a member of the Standing Committee of the Chengdu Municipal Party Committee and Executive Vice Mayor, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on January 9 that Sichuan and Chongqing will take the fifth anniversary of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle as a new starting point. They will focus on five co-construction areas: transportation, industry, technology, finance, and public services, accelerating the construction of direct-connection infrastructure projects between Sichuan and Chongqing, promoting cross-regional industrial chain strengthening, advancing the sharing and utilization of scientific and technological innovation resources, jointly implementing financial reform measures, and continuously improving the interconnectivity of public services.
★★ 【CPCA: Passenger Car Exports Reached 404,000 Units in December, Up 6% YoY and 2% MoM】
The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released data showing that this year's overall car exports continued the strong growth trend from last year. According to CPCA data, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) in December reached 404,000 units, up 6% YoY and 2% MoM. From January to December, cumulative passenger car exports reached 4.791 million units, up 25% YoY. NEVs accounted for 30.2% of total exports in December, an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to the same period. Exports of domestic brands reached 345,000 units in December, up 4% YoY and 1% MoM, while exports of joint ventures and luxury brands reached 58,000 units, up 16% YoY.
★★ 【CPCA: Domestic Retail Sales of Passenger NEVs Reached 1.302 Million Units in December, Up 37.5% YoY】
According to CPCA data, the domestic retail market for passenger NEVs reached 1.302 million units in December, up 37.5% YoY and 2.6% MoM. From January to December 2024, retail sales totaled 10.899 million units, up 40.7% YoY.
★★ 【CPCA: National Passenger Car Market Retail Sales Reached 2.635 Million Units in December, Up 12.0% YoY】
CPCA data shows that the national passenger car market retail sales reached 2.635 million units in December, up 12.0% YoY and 8.7% MoM. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 22.894 million units, up 5.5% YoY.
★ Other Hot Topics ★
⭕ 【Ministry of Commerce: China Has Signed 23 FTAs with 30 Countries and Regions】
According to He Yadong, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, China has signed 23 free trade agreements (FTAs) with 30 countries and regions, covering five continents. The FTA network continues to expand and deepen, with the content and quality of FTAs being continuously enriched and improved. New elements such as negative lists for service trade and investment, standards cooperation, and the digital economy have become standard features of China's newly signed FTAs. Moving forward, China will continue to actively expand its high-standard global FTA network, ensure the high-quality implementation of effective FTAs, and better benefit the people of China and its FTA partners.
⭕ 【US Fed Meeting Minutes: At or Near the Point of Slowing the Pace of Easing, "Caution Needed in the Coming Quarters"】
The US Fed released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed that participants indicated it would be appropriate to continue gradually moving toward a more neutral policy stance if data performs as expected. The Fed is at or near the point of slowing the pace of easing. Many officials believe that "caution is needed in the coming quarters."
⭕ 【China-US Exhibition Industry High-Level Dialogue Successfully Held】
During the 20th China Expo Economy International Cooperation Forum (CEFCO) on January 8, the China-US Exhibition Industry High-Level Dialogue was successfully held in Tianjin. The dialogue focused on topics such as the overall situation of the exhibition industries in China and the US, opportunities and challenges faced by the China-US exhibition industry, and the important role of industry associations in China-US exhibition industry cooperation. The aim was to strengthen exchanges and interactions between the exhibition industries of the two countries and promote healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. Participants unanimously agreed that there are many points of convergence and broad space for cooperation in the exhibition industries of the two countries. They will make good use of important platforms such as the CEFCO Forum and the IAEE Annual Meeting to strengthen communication and exchanges, enhance mutual understanding and trust, leverage their respective functions and influence, address each other's concerns, and create a favorable environment for China-US exhibition industry cooperation. They will also deepen cooperation in areas such as exhibition concept innovation, talent training, standard setting, and information exchange, striving for more practical results to promote mutually beneficial cooperation in the China-US exhibition industry, foster healthy bilateral economic and trade relations, and benefit the people of both countries.
⭕ 【CITIC Securities: Firmly Optimistic About the Release of Automotive Sector Demand in 2025 Driven by Policy Stimulus】
A research report by CITIC Securities pointed out that on January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Intensifying and Expanding the Implementation of Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policies in 2025." Overall, compared to the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" in 2024, the 2025 policy features more subsidy funds, greater intensity, broader scope, and better mechanisms. The policy is expected to be more effective, driving domestic demand to become a positive driving force for next year's macroeconomic growth. It is recommended to pay attention to the funding scale and implementation details for various sub-sectors announced during the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. By sector, the scope of scrappage subsidies for passenger and commercial vehicles has been expanded to include National IV standards, exceeding market expectations. CITIC Securities remains firmly optimistic about the release of automotive sector demand in 2025 driven by policy stimulus, with a focus on leading stocks in automotive sub-sectors. The home appliance industry is also expected to continue benefiting from this policy, with recommendations to focus on companies with high domestic sales ratios and component manufacturers.
