[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Secondary Lead Inverted by 100 Yuan from Primary Lead, Sign of Lead Price Stop Falling?] Recently, lead prices fell continuously, losses for secondary lead enterprises widened, and shipments decreased significantly. In contrast, in the primary lead sector, lead smelters and suppliers were generally selling actively...

SMM News Release, June 22 According to customs data, China’s total exports of tungsten smelting products and tungsten materials reached approximately 1,063.6 tons in May 2026, down 11.9% month-on-month and 17.9% year-on-year.

According to SMM statistics, China’s exports of NdFeB magnets totaled 4,730 tons in May 2026, marking a month-on-month decline of 7.72%. However, volumes surged by 281.84% year-on-year. The sharp YoY increase is primarily attributed to a low base effect caused by export controls in May 2025. The MoM drop, meanwhile, reflects both seasonal weakness in overseas demand and tangible changes in domestic export licensing procedures.

June 25, 2026 Customs data showed that in May 2026, China’s aluminum wire exports totaled 63,850 mt, surging 131.4 percentage points MoM, a net increase of 36,260 mt from 27,590 mt in April. Monthly exports hit a new record high in nearly five years, far exceeding prior optimistic expectations. From January to May, China’s cumulative aluminum wire exports reached 170,600 mt, up 53.14% YoY from the same period in 2025. Aluminum Stranded Wire (HS 76149000): Single-Month Shipments Top 50,000 mt, Far Exceeding Expectations Exports under HS code 76149000 (stranded aluminum wire, not containing any steel core) were 50,224 mt in May, surging 222.7% MoM, a net increase of 34,659 mt from April's 15,565 mt. This result significantly exceeded the optimistic forecasts from the April analysis, with actual exports reaching 2.5 times the expected level. The share of pure aluminum stranded wire in total aluminum wire exports climbed further to 78.7% from 56.4% in April, marking a second consecutive month above the 50% threshold and indicating sustained stronger-than-expected demand outside China. The core drivers behind the surge in pure aluminum stranded wire exports were: first, the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio remained elevated for an extended period, with overseas aluminum prices trading at a significant premium over domestic prices, which kept the export profit window open for a long time and encouraged traders to place concentrated orders; second, orders locked in earlier (March-April) based on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets were cleared through customs en masse in May, creating a pulse-like spike in monthly export volumes. Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (HS 76141000): Mild MoM Rebound to 13,600 mt Exports under HS code 76141000 (aluminum conductor steel reinforced) were 13,627 mt in May, up 13.3% MoM, a net increase of 1,603 mt from 12,024 mt in April. After the pullback that followed the March peak (18,162 mt), a mild rebound materialized in May. ACSR’s share of exports narrowed further to 21.3% from 43.6% in April, mainly because the massive expansion in pure aluminum stranded wire shipments shifted the proportions, while ACSR export volumes themselves remained relatively stable. Analysis of export destinations for pure aluminum stranded wire: East Asia's share jumped to the top, South Korea imported 17,800 mt in a single month Compared with April, the regional structure underwent significant changes: the East Asia region surged from third place (24.6%) in April to first place (43.0%), driven mainly by South Korea's imports soaring from 2,911 mt in April to 17,797 mt (up 511.4% MoM); Southeast Asia remained in second place, but its share edged down from 33.1% to 31.4%; Africa's share fell from 30.6% to 21.6%, while absolute volume increased from 4,189 mt to 10,131 mt, up 142%. The top five countries by MoM volume increase were South Korea (+14,887 mt), Mozambique (+6,515 mt), Vietnam (+4,966 mt), Malaysia (+3,776 mt), and Japan (+1,886 mt), together accounting for 92.5% of the MoM increase in pure aluminum stranded wire exports. South Korea's performance was especially striking: its monthly imports leaped from less than 3,000 mt to nearly 18,000 mt, representing 37.5% of total pure aluminum stranded wire exports in May, instantly becoming the largest single export destination. Export Province Rankings: Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shanghai Take the Top Three Spots In May, exports of pure aluminum stranded wire were concentrated mainly in coastal provinces such as Fujian, Shanghai, and Zhejiang. Fujian Province topped the list with nearly 20,000 mt of exports, almost entirely pure aluminum stranded wire (99.7%), serving as the core contributor to the surge in pure aluminum exports in May. Jiangsu Province was the largest exporter of steel-cored aluminum stranded wire (8,009 mt), while also recording substantial pure aluminum exports. Analysis of Export Destinations for Steel-Cored Aluminum Stranded Wire: Cambodia Tops the List, Saudi Arabia’s Surge In May, steel-cored aluminum stranded wire was exported to a total of 20 countries and regions, with extremely high export concentration: the top 15 destinations accounted for 11,716 mt, representing 99.4% of total exports. Unlike the explosive growth of all-aluminum stranded wire, exports of steel-cored aluminum stranded wire rebounded mildly by 13.3% MoM, maintaining a generally stable pattern. Notably, Saudi Arabia saw exports jump from just 15 mt in April to 1,866 mt in May (up 12,313% MoM), surging to second place, likely driven by concentrated deliveries from power grid expansion projects in the Middle East. Cambodia has ranked among the top export destinations for steel-cored aluminum stranded wire for several months, and remained firmly in first place in May with 2,003 mt. SMM Outlook: June Exports Remain Supported, with Significant Pullback Risk from July Onward Overall, aluminum wire exports hit a record 63,900 mt in May for a single month over the past five years, mainly driven by a concentrated surge in pure aluminum stranded wire during the window of favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. However, recent industry feedback indicates that signals of an export turning point have already emerged. Order side: According to SMM’s communication with overseas traders and Chinese aluminum wire and cable manufacturers, new export orders for aluminum stranded wire have plummeted recently. The main reason is that overseas aluminum prices have fallen successively, narrowing the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio. The profit window that previously drove exports is closing rapidly, with losses already occurring in some periods. It is learned that new orders were already very scarce last week, and there have been almost no new export orders this week. The few new orders placed earlier were mainly arbitrage orders by traders who locked in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets in advance. Production schedule side: In terms of the export pace, enterprises in June are mainly producing previously scheduled orders, and orders on hand are sufficient to cover the entire month. June aluminum wire exports are expected to remain at the May level or edge up slightly, with limited downside room MoM. From July onward, as previously locked-in orders are gradually delivered, the impact of the gap in new orders will become apparent, and pure aluminum stranded wire exports are likely to decline significantly. If the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets show no significant improvement in August-September, aluminum wire exports are expected to pull back to the level before the profit window opened.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Surge and Pull Back, News-Driven Volatility Cools Trading] Recently, supported by reports of production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises alongside recovering downstream demand, most suppliers sharply raised their quotations and market confidence strengthened notably. On Thursday, however, renewed bearish speculation rattled the market, triggering a sharp drop in futures prices. Spot market prices for Pr-Nd oxide followed suit and pulled back. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices have undergone volatile adjustments to 743,000-747,000 yuan/mt.

June 24, 2026 The price of gold remains under short-term pressure following recent setbacks, but the broader bull market is far from over. For Jerry Prior, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), the current decline is primarily a healthy readjustment following overheated positioning. The true long-term drivers—above all, the global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency—remain absolutely intact. Healthy Correction: Why the Fed Shock Is Cleaning Up the Market In recent weeks, the precious metal has come under noticeable selling pressure due to several concurrent factors. The Federal Reserve’s more restrictive stance under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the associated expectations of higher interest rates massively increased the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing gold. At the same time, immediate safe-haven demand eased due to a de-escalation in the Middle East, prompting speculative investors and systematic trend-following funds to engage in massive selling. However, it is precisely this sharp reduction in positions that has already removed the bulk of the downside risk from the market. According to the expert, the risk of panic selling driven by retail inflows has been virtually eliminated following this rigorous market correction. Even if prices were to slip temporarily below the psychologically important threshold of $4,000 per ounce, the focus would instead shift to the enormous potential in the period that follows. As soon as global oil markets stabilize again and new revenues flow into commodity-exporting countries, a massive return of central banks seeking to further build up their gold reserves is to be expected. The Catalyst: De-dollarization Fuels the Next Bull Run Structural de-dollarization remains the strongest argument for strategic gold positions. The increasing use of the U.S. dollar as a geopolitical lever—the so-called “weaponization of the dollar”—is forcing more and more countries to seek alternative stores of value beyond U.S. Treasury bonds. This trend is considered irreversible. Additional revenues from exporting nations are likely to be channeled directly into the gold market in the future, rather than being used to finance the U.S. deficit. This development is accompanied by a macroeconomic environment characterized by structurally higher inflation. The end of cheap globalization benefits from China, the resource-intensive restructuring of global supply chains, and the costly relocation of production facilities virtually guarantee that inflation will not permanently return to the extremely low pre-pandemic level. The recent correction is therefore not a harbinger of a long bear market, but merely a temporary pullback within a secular uptrend. For long-term commodity investors, this market movement is actually good news. Viewed in this light, the current pullback to historically significant support levels flushes speculative market participants out of the system and offers a healthy entry opportunity. Since the fundamental megatrends—from global de-dollarization to massive central bank purchases—remain absolutely intact, as many experts emphasize, the foundation for the next upward cycle could be taking shape here, initially heading toward the $4,500 mark. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-remain-under-pressure-but-this-is-exactly-where-a-new-opportunity-could-lie

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extended Decline, Stainless Steel Spot Followed Lower with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on June 25, SS futures extended their decline and weakened. Non-ferrous metals futures continued their downtrend, and combined with the impact of yesterday’s Indonesian nickel ore quota news, SS futures fell further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the ongoing decline in futures and the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season, the sluggish trading situation was hard to reverse, and traders showed a strong willingness to sell. Although a mainstream stainless steel mill kept its guidance price unchanged in the morning, spot quotes still fell along with futures, and trading remained sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,600 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 370-970 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil remained flat; cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge saw its average price fall by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 50 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot swung wildly. Macro expectations outside China repeatedly disrupted the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the pattern was one of macros driving futures trends, trading fluctuating with sentiment, supply tightening supporting spot, inventory remaining stable, and profits seeing a minor recovery...

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Recently, the north-east China City Football League Harbin division kicked off at the Acheng District Culture and Sports Center in Harbin. As the event's official strategic partner, Geely combined methanol energy, sports events, and north-east China's regional characteristics, showcasing its green commercial vehicle products in event scenarios. Following the appearance of the Farizon Xinghan H methanol-electric heavy-duty truck at the Shenyang division, the Farizon Xingzhi T9M methanol-electric light truck debuted in Harbin as the official ceremonial float. The addition of this model signifies that Geely Farizon has achieved product synergy from heavy-duty to light-duty trucks in event support scenarios, further demonstrating the multi-category layout of its methanol-electric commercial vehicles in the north-east China market. The north-east China Super League is the country's first inter-provincial mass football tournament, covering eight cities including Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, and Harbin. Using football as a link, the event showcases the vitality of coordinated regional development in north-east China. Geely provides support in event operations, brand promotion, and support services, and through methanol-electric products, showcases green transportation solutions, conveying a healthy, safe, and environmentally friendly travel and transportation philosophy . The Farizon Xingzhi T9M has moved from behind-the-scenes support to the forefront, becoming a vital vehicle for showcasing methanol-electric technology to the public. Previously, Geely Farizon's products have served large-scale events such as the Hangzhou Asian Games and the Harbin Asian Winter Games, covering scenarios including public mobility, urban logistics, and torch relay, while completing support tasks in low-temperature environments, verifying the adaptability of methanol-electric technology in cold regions. With cold winters, vast geographic spans, and strong logistics transportation demand, north-east China places higher requirements on the driving range, energy replenishment, and low-temperature starting capabilities of new energy commercial vehicles. Traditional battery-electric routes are prone to issues such as driving range degradation and reduced energy replenishment efficiency in extremely cold environments, whereas methanol-electric technology, by combining fuel-based energy replenishment with an electric drive system, offers an alternative new energy commercial vehicle solution for north China. Leveraging Geely's over 20 years of technological accumulation in methanol, Geely Farizon has formed a methanol-electric product matrix covering categories such as heavy-duty trucks, light-duty trucks, buses, and agricultural machinery, adaptable to various scenarios including trunk logistics, urban distribution, short-haul transport, engineering operations, public transport, and agricultural production. Considering the energy and transport characteristics of north China, "Methanol in the North, Electricity in the South" is emerging as a key pathway for Geely Farizon to promote the development of regional new energy commercial vehicles . In terms of operational performance, the methanol-electric light truck can cover intercity trunk routes exceeding 900 km from Harbin to Dalian, start rapidly in -20°C low-temperature environments, and achieve per-kilometer costs as low as 0.5 yuan, representing a reduction of over 50% compared to equivalent diesel light trucks. Methanol-electric buses have been deployed in Tianjin, Daqing, Harbin, Shenyang, and other cities, offering a driving range of up to 600 km, maintaining a constant cabin temperature of 20°C to 25°C in winter, and saving 180,000 yuan over an 8-year vehicle life cycle. In the heavy-duty truck sector, the Farizon Xinghan H methanol-electric heavy-duty truck, fully loaded at 42 mt, traveled 1,522.9 km on a single tank of methanol traversing the Hexi Corridor, earning a world record certification. In May this year, a driverless tractor equipped with a methanol-electric agricultural machinery power solution commenced spring plowing applications in Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang, providing green power support for agricultural production. Regarding the energy replenishment system, Geely Farizon has cooperated with enterprises including PetroChina and Sinopec to build over 1,000 methanol refueling stations nationwide and plans to expand this to 4,000 by the end of 2027, enhancing the convenience of methanol vehicle usage. At the policy level, the green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol industry is being integrated as a key development direction, and multiple regions have successively introduced policy documents supporting the promotion of methanol vehicles. Liaoning Province has proposed reaching a methanol vehicle production scale of over 50,000 units by 2028, while Heilongjiang Province is also advancing the construction of a methanol ecosystem. From sports event showcases to road transport, public transit, and agricultural production, Geely Farizon's methanol-electric technology is achieving multi-scenario implementation in north-east China. Going forward, as models such as the Xingzhi T9M accelerate their promotion, methanol-electric commercial vehicles are expected to further serve the new energy transition of commercial vehicles, energy structure optimization, and green transportation system development in north-east China.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash News] Australian mineral sands producer Iluka Resources recently announced that it has secured a A$1.65 billion (about $1.15 billion) non-recourse loan confirmed by Export Finance Australia (EFA) for the construction of a rare earth refinery in Eneabba, Western Australia. The refinery will be Australia's first fully integrated rare earth refinery. Iluka stated that the first drawdown of A$1.25 billion is expected to be fully utilized by the end of 2026, at which point construction of the refinery will be 75% complete. The project is currently over 50% complete, with commissioning anticipated to begin in mid-2027. Meanwhile, Iluka has signed a binding multi-year offtake agreement with a globally renowned automaker. The four-year agreement, effective from 2028, covers the supply of magnetic rare earth oxides including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, accounting for approximately 10% (about 1,200 mt) of Iluka's planned production.