SMM, August 6: Metals market side, as of the midday close, domestic base metals were almost all up. SHFE copper rose 0.4%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.23%. SHFE lead edged up. SHFE zinc rose 1.49%. SHFE tin gained 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 2.1%. Additionally, foundry aluminum main continuous futures edged down, while alumina main continuous futures rose 1.36%. Lithium carbonate main continuous futures fell 1.23%. Silicon metal main continuous futures rose 0.12%. Polysilicon main continuous futures declined 0.65%. Ferrous metals were mostly in the green. Iron ore rose 2%, rebar gained 0.67%, and HRC edged up 0.53%. Stainless steel fell 1.51%. Coking coal and coke side: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.99%. Overseas base metals side, as of 11:45, LME metals were almost all down. LME copper fell 0.36%, LME aluminum gained 0.17%, LME lead declined 0.16%, LME zinc fell 0.37%. LME tin dropped 1.58%. LME nickel declined 1.9%. Precious metals side, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.44%, while COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Domestic precious metals side: SHFE gold gained 3.72%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 3.19%. Additionally, as of the midday close, platinum main continuous futures rose 1.05%, and palladium main continuous futures gained 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.63% to 1,651 points. As of 11:45 on August 6, some futures midday snapshots: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, with rising arrivals and weakening consumption being the main reasons... Macro front Domestic side: [PBOC net withdrew 269.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 270.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. [China Gold Association: In H1 2026, domestic gold ETF additions fell 66.17% YoY] According to data from the China Gold Association, in H1 2026, domestic gold ETF additions amounted to 28.677 mt, down 66.17% from H1 2025. By the end of June 2026, domestic gold ETF holdings stood at 276.529 mt. In H1 2026, China increased its gold holdings by 40.12 mt, and as of the end of June, its gold reserves were 2,346.45 mt, ranking fifth globally. From November 2024 to June 2026, China had increased its gold holdings for 20 consecutive months. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 99.72. US ADP employment cooled, but ISM services costs remained high, presenting stagflation concerns. US ADP employment data disappointed! US July ADP employment added only 44,000 jobs, the lowest this year, making Friday's non-farm payrolls data crucial. The US July ADP private sector added just 44,000 jobs, a new low for the year and below expectations, with the goods-producing sector under pressure, indicating a cooling labour market. However, job-switcher wages rose strongly by 7% YoY, suggesting structural tightness persists. The market is now focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls data; if it aligns, it will confirm steady employment, providing support for the US Fed to continue focusing on fighting inflation. The US July ISM services PMI continued to expand, with demand resilience still present but stagflation risks rising. The US July ISM services index rose to 54.1, up 0.1 point from June but below the expected 54.5. The new orders index unexpectedly rose to 57.2, the prices paid index unexpectedly climbed to 70.3, while the employment index unexpectedly fell to 47.4, sinking into contraction territory, with rising costs and employment contraction showing some stagflation characteristics. The US Treasury maintained its quarterly debt issuance scale unchanged, with $40 trillion debt pressure approaching. The latest Treasury refunding announcement kept the auction sizes for coupon-bearing Treasuries unchanged, but changed the future issuance description from "increase" to "adjust," retaining flexibility for a policy shift. This quarter's borrowing estimate was raised to $739 billion, and federal debt is about to surpass $40 trillion. The Treasury continues to rely on short-term bills to fill the gap, making financing costs more sensitive to interest rates. Markets fear that delaying adjustments could trigger a more severe long-term debt issuance shock later. (From Wall Street CN APP) Data side: Data to be released today include the Swiss July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone June retail sales MoM, the US July Challenger job cuts, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, the US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and the US June wholesale sales MoM, among others. Focus should be on: Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking on the economic outlook; and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a 2027 FOMC voter, speaking. Crude oil side: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges edged lower, with WTI falling 0.28% and Brent falling 0.13%. The market is focused on the progress of negotiations between Iran and Oman. Iran reveals new plan for Hormuz for the first time, says the US had taken the initiative to negotiate but fulfilling the agreement alone is not enough to reopen the strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister said that arrangements related to the strait should be decided solely through negotiations between Iran and Oman, and Iran will absolutely not accept any external involvement; under the new arrangement, current temporary shipping lanes in the strait will be closed, and in the future, a large number of vessels will be rerouted through Iranian territorial waters. Reports suggest that the proposed agreement with Oman grants Iran control over ships entering the Strait of Hormuz, a major concession Iran has achieved so far; Iran intends to charge ships 5%-7% of the cargo value, Oman has proposed a fee of about 3%, and the US opposes any fees. (From Wall Street CN APP) On August 5 local time, US President Trump said in a speech at an event in Las Vegas that oil prices had fallen recently and stabilized to some extent, and "we might have to let it go back up," but he "hopes it won't come to that." Trump did not further explain the meaning of this statement. Analysis by AP pointed out that although Trump has repeatedly assured that the war with Iran is about to end, oil prices typically still rise as conflicts between the two sides reignite. (CCTV International News) Spot market overview: ► ► ► Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Contract Hits New Stage High, Aluminum Alloy Market Consolidates at Highs, Drifting Higher] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,435 yuan/mt, shot up to 23,540 yuan/mt, hitting a new stage high, then pulled back to a low of 23,380 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,450 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan, or 0.09%, from the settlement price.

[China's Aluminum Inventory Pullback, Multiple Factors in Play, Aluminum Prices Drift Higher] Overall, recently the macro front has improved, the US Fed's near-term hold on rate hikes has eased the marginal constraint on the non-ferrous metals sector, and China's proportion of liquid aluminum continues to rise while aluminum inventory destocking has resumed, together underpinning aluminum prices. However, the continuous rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China during the off-season, and the recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are putting some upward pressure on aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a trend of consolidating on a strong note.

Today, the DCE iron ore futures trended higher today. DCE’s most-traded I2609 contract closed at 706 yuan/mt, up 0.93% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose 3–8 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased as needed, leaving overall spot trading moderate.

Iron ore futures trended strong today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 706 yuan/mt, up 0.93% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose 3-8 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. Traders offered actively, steel mills purchased as needed, and overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre. The latest SMM survey data showed blast furnace operating rates at steel mills at 89.04%, up 0.11 percentage point WoW. Blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.80%, down 0.1 percentage point WoW. Daily average hot metal production at sampled steel mills stood at 2.4058 million mt, down 2,900 mt WoW. With increased steel mill maintenance, pig iron production is expected to edge down next week. Yet the maintenance cycles are short, keeping near-term iron ore demand relatively stable. In news, as the false invoice incident continues to unfold, credit institutions are expected to tighten risk exposure, potentially hampering near-term iron ore trade liquidity. On balance, ore prices are likely to consolidate in the short run.

[SMM Daily Review: Aug 5 Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Consolidate Higher] Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price consolidated higher compared to the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 139,700 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to 138,300 yuan/mt after opening and then found support, with bulls stepping in to push prices to consolidate and rebound; in the morning session, prices fluctuated on the strong side in the 140,000-142,000 yuan/mt range, and the center gradually moved higher despite some back-and-forth; near midday, bulls and bears consolidated in a tug-of-war in the 141,500-142,500 yuan/mt range; in the afternoon, bulls continued to push, and prices consolidated higher; near the close, concentrated capital inflows drove prices quickly up to 144,300 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high, then pulled back slightly on some profit-taking, settling around 143,200 yuan/mt, finally closing up 2.61% at 143,200 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 9,640 lots. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchased as needed on dips. Some downstream buyers saw increased spot order demand as upstream lithium chemical plants' maintenance reduced long-term contract volumes; upstream lithium chemical plants remained cautious in selling spot cargoes, with those having maintenance plans focusing on securing long-term contract supplies this month, while some lithium chemical plants showed signs of loosening their intent to hold prices firm. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise; Spot Stainless Steel Trades Cool Down According to SMM on August 5, SS futures generally pulled back, ending yesterday's shot up, and followed SHFE nickel to slump sharply. As of close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,475 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the renewed decline in SS futures, trading sentiment weakened notably, and traders lowered their quotes. Under the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, transactions turned visibly quiet. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 am, SS2609 was at 14,480 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 490-890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan also fell by 75 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish, dominating metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed's interest rate meeting this week kept rates unchanged as expected, but the overall stance was hawkish, weighing on commodity valuations broadly, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Affected by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with the center of futures moving lower and overall market trading sentiment cautious. Spot and inventory side, futures...

SMM, Aug 5: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.79%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%. SHFE lead rose 2.61%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.5%. SHFE nickel fell 0.78%. In addition, foundry aluminum most-traded futures were flat at 23,365 yuan/mt, alumina most-traded contract rose 0.99%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.45%, silicon metal most-traded contract rose 0.72%, and polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.83%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.93%, rebar rose 0.34%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5%. Stainless steel fell 2.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.27%, and coke most-traded contract rose 2.13%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper was flat at $14,043/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc rose 0.59%, LME tin rose 0.13%, and LME nickel fell 0.2%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.8% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.92%, and SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 5.35%. In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 7.04%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 6.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight index futures contract fell 8.96% to 1,635 points. As of 11:45 Aug 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories ended a two-day rising streak and declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals... Macro Front China: [PBOC net drains 201.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from last. Today, 206.5 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.82. Oil prices fell further, with markets betting that the tight energy supply situation will ease, potentially reducing inflationary pressures, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME "FedWatch," the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 41.6%, while there is a 58.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 30.5%, with a 53.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 15.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s policy reaction function has shifted to a less dovish stance. His remarks this year suggest that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models showing that the Fed’s policy rate could be anywhere from more than 25bp to over 100bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he put forward two points. He first defended Warsh’s decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best outcome." Secondly, he did propose a policy reaction function that could be seen as dovish, arguing that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will be the impact of rising short-term rates? We’ll have to wait and see." He raised this question, but then responded by noting that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, after stripping out the more volatile components influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I expect this to continue." (Jin10 Data APP) On the economic data front, US job openings declined somewhat in June, but hiring rebounded slightly, indicating that labour market demand remained relatively stable. eToro’s Bret Kenwell noted that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the next key period: "If the data is strong, especially amid still-elevated inflation, it will reinforce expectations for a September rate hike; but if the data is weak, combined with last week’s lower-than-expected GDP growth, it could provide more justification for the Fed to stay on hold." (Wall Street CN) Data: Today will see the release of France’s June industrial production m/m, final July services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, Eurozone June PPI m/m, US July ADP employment change, final US July S&P Global services PMI, and US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other data. Watch: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets extended the declines from the previous two trading days, continuing to fall, with WTI down 1.36% and Brent down 1.06%. Qatar stated that both the US and Iran are optimistic about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the relevant proposal has been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the agreement could be finalized on Tuesday or Wednesday. Affected by this, crude oil futures continued their downward trend. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supply; if reopened, it is expected to promote the normalization of global oil supply. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei said on August 4 that Iran is still in negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with "positive progress" on technical and political levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that an agreement could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. According to a report by the US news website Axios on August 4, regional sources and US officials indicated that the US, Iran, and Oman are "close to reaching" an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US side hopes to announce the deal on August 5. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Aluminum Alloy Daily Comment] Today, ADC12 market prices remained generally stable, with a weak willingness across the industry to adjust prices. On the cost side, aluminum prices pulled back, but the extent was limited, leaving enterprises with insufficient willingness to actively follow the decline. The demand side remained in the off-season, and spot prices were constrained by weak demand, limiting upside room.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today the SHFE copper price center rose further above 107,000 yuan/mt. High copper prices significantly dampened downstream purchases, and the market was still dominated by rigid demand buying. However, suppliers’ willingness to sell strengthened, and they continuously lowered their offers throughout the day to facilitate deals. As standard-quality copper prices pulled back, downstream purchase willingness improved, and some low-priced cargoes were traded gradually. Meanwhile, available cargoes of high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper remained scarce, with relatively firm offers providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of high copper prices suppressing demand and active price cuts by suppliers to sell, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow. The overall center may continue to be in the doldrums, but improved transactions at low prices may limit the extent of further pullbacks in premiums.