This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 15–18, 2026. A mid-week hawkish Fed turn capped an early rally, but supply tightening and firm mill pricing lifted the SHFE board RMB 355/mt on the week of June 15–19.

The iron ore benchmark contract I2609 traded on a weak note today, finally closing at 747 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Port spot prices remained broadly unchanged from yesterday.

In the spot market this week (6.15-6.18), SMM #1 lead prices first rose then fell, continuing to climb during the week before a slight correction ahead of the holiday. With mid-year settlement and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, downstream stocking willingness was sluggish, purchases at high prices were cautious, and spot order trading was sluggish. By region, smelters in Henan had low inventory and tight spot order supply, while traders’ supply was stably at discounts of 100-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2607 contract, with sluggish trading; smelters in Hunan quoted premiums of 0-20 yuan on the 15th, turned to discounts of 30-0 yuan on the 17th and 18th, with some cargoes negotiated to a discount of 50 yuan; smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui were unwilling to make significant concessions throughout, only slightly lowering their quotes, with premiums narrowing from 100-150 yuan to 80-100 yuan. Overall, downstream mostly relied on long-term contract purchases, and spot transactions were generally weak this week.

Next week, on the macro data front, the US May core PCE price index YoY rate, US May personal spending MoM rate, and the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI flash reading are about to be released. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in June as expected, but the meeting sent a clear hawkish signal, including a sharp upward revision to inflation forecasts and a dot plot showing that a majority of officials expected rate hikes within the year. In addition, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and entered into force, initiating a 60-day negotiation period, while the latest foreign media reports indicate that Israel has again attacked Lebanon, leaving Middle East peace talks still uncertain. On the LME lead front, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, but total inventory remains at a high level of 300,000 mt. During this period, the LME Cash-3M spread shifted from a premium last week to a discount, latest at -$28.4/mt. Meanwhile, new progress emerged in the Middle East peace talks, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes within the year rose. With a complex macro environment, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating, and the consolidation range will widen, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,955-2,000/mt. On the SHFE lead side, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, production resumptions at downstream enterprises will bring some rigid demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year mark, large downstream enterprises will close their books and take stock, and lead ingot purchasing will be suspended, providing limited support for lead prices. Meanwhile, maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters is increasing, and supply tightening expectations support stronger lead prices. Under the combined effect of these factors, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,250-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt. Due to smelter maintenance in mid-to-late June, lead ingot supply will be relatively tight. However, with the ongoing mid-year capital recouping, suppliers will continue to clear inventory and sell, and spot lead is expected to maintain small discounts (vs. SMM# lead) when selling. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises also face mid-year capital recouping. Some enterprises will maintain production with their inventory or continue to pick up previously-ordered lead ingots, with actual procurement to be postponed.

The most-traded iron ore contract was in the doldrums today. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 747 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. Port spot prices fell in tandem, dropping 10-15 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed moderate selling interest; steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed with weak restocking willingness. Overall market trading was sluggish, with scarce transactions. As the holiday approached, market trading turned mediocre. Spot and futures prices moved sideways. Looking ahead to next week, as hot metal production peaks and pulls back, iron ore demand expectations are likely to weaken; meanwhile, falling ocean freight rates eroded cost support. In the near term, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures and Raw Material Linkage Boost Stainless Steel Scrap Market, Off-Season Pressure Limits Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt; in Foshan, the price of the same specification stainless steel scrap also edged up, with a price range of 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,701.1 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reached 15,168.67 yuan/mt, maintaining a considerable cost price spread. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. Recovering macro sentiment during the week drove SS futures higher, with the positive momentum in futures transmitting to the spot market and driving spot prices for stainless steel products higher. Meanwhile, purchasing activity in the high-grade NPI market picked up, lifting raw material prices. Futures, steel products, and alternative raw materials formed a linked boost, pushing stainless steel scrap prices higher this week. Although the rise in high-grade NPI prices this week narrowed the economic cost advantages of stainlessless steel scrap, the overall cost advantages remained prominent, continuing to provide bottom support for stainless steel scrap prices and ensuring the market held up well. Overall, short-term positive factors drove scrap prices moderately higher, but bearish constraints remain in the market. The market has officially entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with frequent news of production cuts and maintenance at stainless steel mills within the industry. Market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, issues such as tight industry tax invoices...

[Supply-Demand Pattern Steady, Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to Stay Stable Next Week] This week, spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel remained mostly stable, with market trading unfolding at a steady and orderly pace. Ferrous metals futures retreated after a rapid rise this week, posting limited changes that provided weak sentiment support for the silicon steel spot market, and overall market price fluctuations narrowed. Although earlier steel mill price hike policies were implemented, releasing positive signals, the market was still in a phase of digesting these policies. Spot prices did not post significant changes, mainstream quotations remained steady, the price spread between high- and low-priced resources in the market gradually narrowed, and overall quotations became more aligned.

[Off-Season Demand Continues to Weaken, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Have Downside Room Next Week] This week, HRC futures rose first and then fell, with the average price shifting lower, and cost support weakened somewhat. The current market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, traders have a strong willingness to sell, and most downstream motor enterprises mainly purchase as needed, with demand being moderate.