[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Nonferrous Sector Boosted; Stainless Steel Futures Stopped Falling and Began to Rise According to SMM news on August 17, SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Although Friday’s night session remained weak, Monday’s open was lifted by a broad rally in nonferrous metals, and SS successfully reversed its decline and began to rise. By the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,275 yuan/mt. Spot market, although SS futures had already staged a rebound, the weak trading pattern in the morning stainless steel spot market did not improve, and traders further lowered their quotes. Only as futures gradually rebounded did spot transactions show some recovery. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 14,220 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 400-650 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils held steady; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average fell 125 yuan/mt and the Foshan average fell 125 yuan/mt; prices of Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were continuously disturbed by macro sentiment and overall maintained a weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore approval repeatedly disrupted industry expectations. Coupled with hawkish US Fed policy remarks and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty in the market stayed high, and multiple bearish factors resonated to drag SS futures lower throughout the week…

SMM News, August 17: Data Brief: As of Monday, August 17, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 15,900 mt WoW from last Monday to 133,900 mt. Total inventories rose by 200 mt from 133,700 mt in the same period last year, with inventory buildup seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, higher arrivals of domestically produced material combined with weak consumption led to inventory buildup; in Jiangsu, inventories built up markedly due to delivery-related factors and the price spread between futures contracts; in Guangdong, a wide price spread between futures contracts and concentrated shipments to delivery warehouses by smelters drove a sharp increase in arrivals, and together with weak consumption, resulted in a significant inventory increase. Market outlook: Supply side, in the short term, arrivals of domestically produced and imported copper cathode were expected to rebound slightly, easing the tightness in market circulation. Demand side, copper prices shot up again, and high prices severely suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, keeping demand persistently weak. The survey showed that this week’s operating rate of copper cathode rod was expected to fall to 59.01%, down 0.29 percentage points WoW. Overall, with China’s spot supply turning marginally looser and end-user purchasing remaining weak, SMM expected nationwide social inventory of copper cathode to continue building up this week.

SMM News on August 17: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract continued to trade at elevated levels. Today was the last trading day for the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract, and the price spread between near-month contracts was contango 20-contango 50 yuan/mt. Today, spot premiums for SHFE aluminum were mainly transacted in the range of 09-10 yuan/mt to 09+10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market’s shipment sentiment index was 3.15, up 0.01 WoW; the procurement sentiment index was 3.4, up 0.06 WoW. Today, aluminum futures rebounded slightly again. As it was also the first day of the week, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed low stockpiling sentiment, and overall procurement sentiment fell WoW from last Friday, with the market’s overall trading atmosphere remaining sluggish. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market hovered around a discount of 90-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 09 contract. Today, the central China market’s shipment sentiment index was 3.09, unchanged WoW; the procurement sentiment index was 2.9, down 0.07 WoW. Inventory side, today aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas decreased by 500 mt WoW, with only Gongyi showing an inventory buildup.

[Guangdong: Futures Center Rose, Market Trading Was Sluggish] In Guangdong, mainstream transactions of 0# zinc were concluded at 25,685-25,875 yuan/mt. Mainstream brands were quoted at discounts of 90-70 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and at discounts of 45 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargo, with the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowing......

Platinum prices consolidated higher, and the futures market showed a rebound and recovery trend. In the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum PT2610 contract closed at 432.95 yuan/g, up 2.64%; the best offer price for platinum 9995 on the Gold Exchange kept the price spread against the GFEX PT2610 contract at around 2 yuan/g. Spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Driven by today’s rise in futures, suppliers’ quoted discounts narrowed slightly compared with the previous trading day, but downstream consumption remained weak. After the futures price rose, purchase willingness was limited, with purchases mainly small lots for rigid demand. Shipments of high-priced cargo from suppliers were hindered, and the bargaining room in actual transactions expanded somewhat. Warehouse warrants carried relatively high premiums, and mainstream quotations were mostly around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g against the most-traded contract. Overall, trading in the spot platinum market remained relatively sluggish.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai stood at 80,900 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 7,800 mt MoM, bringing the combined inventory buildup in the two regions to 9,400 mt. The buildup was mainly driven by the return flow of some imports and arrivals of domestic supply, but part of the inventory has been registered as warrants, leaving limited growth in actually available spot cargo. From the perspective of downstream consumption, intraday copper prices touched a high of 110,000 yuan/mt. According to SMM, some downstream processing enterprises had scheduled maintenance shutdowns, orders saw a marked reduction, end-users’ acceptance of the current high copper prices continued to weaken, and procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand. After the contract rollover, under SMM’s price assessment methodology, spot will be officially quoted against the 2609 contract tomorrow. As the contract price spread is expected to normalize after the rollover, spot premiums against the 09 contract are expected to remain at relatively high levels tomorrow, with the premium center moving up sharply versus today’s premiums against the 08 contract. However, attention should be paid to the potential suppression of spot premiums from subsequent warrant outflows—if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, it will create marginal pressure on high premiums.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Consolidate at Highs, Spot Trading Skews Toward Lower Levels] SMM News, August 17: Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity risk disruptions limited gains, and silver prices consolidated at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and trading skewed toward lower levels.

[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,108.5/mt and dipped to $14,099.5/mt early in the session. Copper prices then drifted higher, with the center rising to $14,196/mt, and finally closed at $14,172.5/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest stood at 269,000 lots, an increase of 3,237 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,920 yuan/mt and fell to 107,650 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then moved up sharply to a high of 108,320 yuan/mt, after which it stayed high and moved sideways within a narrow range, and finally closed at 108,200 yuan/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest stood at 204,000 lots, down 815 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reduced positions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost–Demand Tug-of-War, ADC12 Prices to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,170 yuan/mt. After a brief dip early in the night session, bearish momentum faded, and prices consolidated, rebounded, and recovered. Late in the session, it held up well, closing at 23,245 yuan/mt, up 0.48%.