This year marks the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and China will continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy. Priority will be given to supporting the building of a strong Chinese market; supporting efforts to accelerate the fostering and strengthening of new momentum, rolling out initiatives for the high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains, organizing the implementation of the third batch of pilot cities for new-type technological transformation in manufacturing, and continuing the fiscal award and subsidy policy for specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises.

[SMM Tin Commentary: The SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated Near the 370,000 Level, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision]

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Indonesian bauxite mines generally observe the national public holidays (libur nasional) and collective leave days (cuti bersama) in March 2026, as confirmed by industry players, though exact implementation varies by company policy (e.g., essential operations like maintenance or shifts may continue with adjustments). This creates a potential 7-day extended break (18–24 March), aligning with government SKB (joint ministerial decree) on holidays and cuti bersama for 2026.

On 9 January, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration released a new export tax rebate policy. From 1 April 2026, China’s export tax rebates of up to 13% for solar battery panels will be rolled back, while the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%. The complete phase-out of tax rebates for the above-listed products is scheduled for 1 January 2027. This policy aims to negate price distortions emerged in overseas battery markets, which have long affected the profit margins of domestic manufacturers.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Under Macro Pressure, SHFE Tin Contracts Fell to 366,000, and Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Active]

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,685 yuan/mt, after which bears added to their positions and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, hitting a low of 23,440 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 23,455 yuan/mt, down 275 yuan/mt, or 1.16%. Trading volume fell to 39,416 lots, and open interest increased by 10,738 lots to 91,209 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Increased by 20kt, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,277/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,293/mt before bulls reduced open interest, sending LME zinc fluctuating downward throughout the session and touching a low of $3,210/mt during the night session. The center then rebounded slightly, and it finally closed down at $3,233/mt, down $46/mt, a decrease of 1.4%, with trading volume increasing to 13,404 lots and open interest falling by 3,868 lots to 214,000 lots.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

Gold prices fall due to interest rate gloom and Middle East tensions. US Fed and major central banks likely to maintain current interest rates. Long-term gold outlook positive, seen as a hedge against risks.