The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

Gold is a widely known safe-haven asset and tends to benefit during geopolitical turmoil, but the metal has remained largely range-bound amid the latest Middle East conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

The Madagascan government recently announced the lifting of a 16-year moratorium on the issuance of new mining permits that has been in place since 2010. The ban was originally imposed to allow a review of the country’s mining governance and legal framework. Mining is a key pillar of Madagascar’s economy, with major export products including nickel, cobalt, graphite, and ilmenite. As of 2023, around 1,650 applications were still awaiting approval. However, due to major discrepancies between officially reported gold production figures and the scale of artisanal gold mining nationwide, as well as insufficient regulatory and monitoring capacity, the government has decided to maintain the moratorium on gold mining.

Affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the COMEX gold price continued to break through upwards, and the secondary market prices of gold-related ETFs also rose for consecutive days. According to this year's data, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth, with year-to-date gains all above 41%. During this period, the scale of gold-related ETFs in the entire market gradually climbed, increasing from 72.608 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Several fund companies believe that due to uncertainties in tariffs and geopolitics, risk-averse capital may flow into gold. Coupled with the impaired credit of the US dollar and US Treasuries, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the major cycle of interest rate cuts by the US Fed, the medium and long-term allocation value of gold continues to be favored. Gold ETFs Continue to be "Favored" with Market Size Exceeding 160 Billion Yuan On June 16, affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, COMEX gold broke above 3450, and gold and gold stock indices continued to rise, with related ETFs once again gaining market attention. Data shows that since June 10, multiple ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index have risen by more than 7%, while several other gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold ETFs have risen by more than 2%. Looking at earlier data, as of June 13, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth. The Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF achieved a year-to-date gain of 43.46%, while the ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, ICBC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Hua'an CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, and Ping An CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF also rose by 43.27%, 42.79%, 41.79%, 41.79%, and 41.31%, respectively. Some ETF shares that experienced redemptions during the earlier period of gold price fluctuations and adjustments have also shown signs of "recovery". Since the Israel-Iran conflict, half of the gold-related ETF shares in the entire market have increased. Since the beginning of this year, the total shares of gold ETFs in the entire market have increased by 10.538 billion, and the scale has increased by 90.512 billion yuan, reaching a latest market size of 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Among these, there are products whose scales have doubled. For example, the scale of the Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF increased from 1.651 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 4.755 billion yuan now, nearly tripling; the E Fund Gold ETF increased by 13.240 billion yuan from 13.248 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 26.488 billion yuan; the Guotai Gold ETF increased by 11.399 billion yuan from 7.142 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 18.541 billion yuan. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF also increased from 15.004 billion yuan to 29.26 billion yuan. Products such as Huaxia Gold ETF, ICBC Gold ETF, Fullgoal Shanghai Gold ETF, and CCB Principal Shanghai Gold ETF have all shown multi-fold growth in scale since the beginning of this year. The momentum to increase gold allocation remains. Regarding the future allocation value of gold-related assets, multiple fund companies believe that under the current circumstances, market participants are more motivated to continuously increase their gold allocation. Data shows that central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced the official reserve asset data for May. As of the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces, up 60,000 ounces MoM, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. "The potential geopolitical conflict risks in Iran and other countries, along with the escalation of related conflicts, may catalyze global attention to safe-haven assets, making the upward logic of gold prices more robust," pointed out Liu Tingyu, the fund manager of Yongying Gold Stock ETF. Hua'an Fund expressed that, against the backdrop of the U.S. debt crisis and the erosion of the U.S. dollar's credit, global central banks may continue to purchase gold and diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, safe-haven funds may flow into gold. Coupled with the erosion of the U.S. dollar's and U.S. debt's credit, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the broader cycle of the US Fed's interest rate cuts, the company continues to be optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation value of gold. Regarding tariffs, Liu Tingyu believes that the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals' extension of the deadline for the Trump administration's tariff enforcement issues implies that its tariff policies can still be implemented normally. Under this assumption, the contradictions within the Trump administration in the U.S. will significantly ease, and it is expected that Trump will have sufficient room to act hawkish in the coming period, further reducing the suppressive factors on gold. Additionally, gold is positively correlated with inflation in the long term, and the significant rise in oil prices will also affect gold prices through inflation. "Finally, we are more concerned about the main logic of gold—the weakening trend of the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt. The U.S. fiscal deficit in May was $316 billion, with the annual deficit up 14% YoY, further plunging into deficit. This year, the market's confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline has continued to wane, and the 'America COMPETES Act' may exacerbate the upward trend of the deficit. The avoidance of extreme risks in U.S. debt may become the main driving force for gold prices," Liu Tingyu said. Looking ahead, he believes that as the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and the rise in the deficit rate further erode the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, the global trend of "de-dollarization" will intensify, and market participants will be more motivated to continuously increase their allocation of gold assets. It is worth mentioning that with the upward shift in the gold price center and the continuous expansion of gold mining companies' production, the performance of gold stocks is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Gold jewelers are also experiencing a turning point in performance and a trend toward product high-endization, which similarly offers good growth potential.

According to a report on Mining.com, Dateline Resources (DR) has gained further political support. With the public endorsement of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the company will develop the second rare earth mine in the US. On the 8th, Burgum stated in an interview with Fox News that the resumption of production at Colosseum, California, is a "critical link" in expanding the US's critical minerals supply chain. The project owner, DR, said that this endorsement "highlights the strategic significance of Colosseum in reducing the US's reliance on overseas rare earths." Previously, the Interior Department had already approved the company's mining plan. Shortly after Burgum publicly expressed his support, the management team, led by company manager Stephen Baghdadi, met with Burgum at the Interior Department headquarters in Washington, D.C., to discuss the next steps for the project. In a press release, DR stated that the discussion affirmed the significance of the mine to the US's rare earth supply chain, which is crucial for advanced technologies and national security, and that it is a known deposit in the US with the potential for "faster development." The Australian miner said that with the support of high-level officials from the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the proposed National Energy Dominance Council by Trump, Burgum "reiterated his commitment to accelerating rare earth production in the US, reflecting his special concern for the Colosseum rare earth mine." The Colosseum project is located along the WLT (Walker Lane Trend) in California, 10 kilometers north of Mountain Pass, the only operating rare earth mine in the US. The project has a long history, having been mined as early as the California Gold Rush. In the late 1980s, LAC Minerals conducted large-scale gold mining activities here, producing a total of 344,000 ounces of gold from two pits. The mine was closed in 1993. Subsequently, Barrick Gold acquired the project but only carried out minimal work over the next 20 years. In 2021, DR purchased the Colosseum project, reviewed the work of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and attempted to identify radioactive indications within the Colosseum-Mountain Pass corridor. Based on the evaluation results, the company's team believes that its geological setting is similar to that of Mountain Pass. The Mountain Pass rare earth mine commenced production in 1952 and was a significant global rare earth producer from the 1960s to the 1990s. Technical evaluations indicate that rare earth-bearing ore is present within the boundaries of Colosseum. However, due to its proximity to the Mojave National Preserve, the mine has been on hold in recent years. Currently, Colossus has no rare earth resources, only gold resources compliant with the JORC 2012 standard, with two-thirds being measured and indicated resources. A 2024 scoping study indicates that the project has a mine life of over 8 years, with an annual gold production capacity of 75,000 ounces.

According to MiningNews.net, in Q1, Australia's exploration sector was experiencing a significant downturn, with key indicators such as financing, exploration investment, and corporate cash reserves showing stagnation or substantial declines. Consulting firm BDO described Q1 as "the most disheartening quarter in recent years" in its latest report. The poor start to 2025 was reflected in a sharp 19% drop in mineral exploration investment to AUD 635 million, the lowest level since Q2 2021. The average investment per company was AUD 860,000, the worst performance since Q1 2021. The average cash surplus of exploration companies fell by 3% to AUD 9.8 million. Only 26 companies were able to raise more than AUD 10 million, collectively raising AUD 1.57 billion, compared to 57 companies raising over AUD 2.17 billion in Q4 of the previous year. This marked the worst period in six years. Additionally, due to mergers and acquisitions, executive appointments, or the delisting of entities that had been suspended for an extended period, the number of companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) decreased by 17, leaving only 747. There were no initial public offerings (IPOs) during this period, the first time since 2020. Sherif Andrawes, Head of Natural Resources and Energy Research at BDO, stated that the company's analysis of the data revealed a "worrying" state of the exploration sector. Signs of capital discipline and cautious spending suggest that the situation may deteriorate further in the future, especially since the federal budget in May abolished support policies such as the Junior Minerals Exploration Incentive (JMEI), which may pose greater challenges for junior exploration companies. "The significant decline in financing and exploration expenditure indicates increased investor caution and rising market uncertainty," Andrawes said. "Our quarterly analysis shows a poor start to 2025. In previous quarters, exploration companies had demonstrated some resilience in the face of weak commodity prices, particularly for uranium and lithium." Financing for lithium companies dropped by 90% to AUD 68.95 million, while financing for uranium miners came to a complete halt. As a safe-haven asset, gold mining companies emerged as a bright spot. Among the 26 companies that raised funds, 16 were gold miners, particularly Predictive Discovery and Black Cat Syndicate. Gold mining companies raised AUD 621 million, more than double the amount raised in the same period last year. Copper mining companies raised AUD 122 million, and silver exploration companies raised AUD 120 million. "M&A activity in the sector has also increased, with major transactions including Gold Fields' acquisition of Gold Road Resources and Ramelius Resources' acquisition of Spartan Resources," Andrawes said. Given the current market volatility, BDO expects gold to continue to dominate the trend in H2 2025.

According to a report from MiningNews.net, Democratic lawmakers have urged the Trump administration not to support the exploration and development plan of Australian junior company Dateline Resources in the Mojave Desert, California. In a letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, US Senators Alex Padilla, Adam Schiff, and Martin Heinrich stated that the recent approval by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for Dateline Resources to conduct rare earth exploration violated federal law, flouted the authority of the National Park Service (NPS), and set a "dangerous precedent" for industrial development within the US National Park System. "We strongly urge you to revoke this decision and uphold the integrity of the Mojave National Preserve and the National Park System," the letter read. US officials revealed that the Mojave National Preserve is home to the Colosseum gold-rare earth mine, Dateline's primary asset. The preserve was established in 1994 under the California Desert Protection Act (CDPA) to protect "rare plant species and critical wildlife corridors" in the area. "The CDPA explicitly stipulates that any mining activities within the Mojave Preserve must comply with the Mining in the Parks Act, which requires a mineral compatibility review and approval of the operation plan by the NPS," the Democratic letter stated. "However, the BLM appears to be attempting to circumvent this law by authorizing Dateline's project based on a 1985 plan initially approved for different minerals, different ownership, and issued prior to the establishment of the preserve." The 1985 plan only involved gold mining. While gold remains Dateline's core mineral at Colosseum, the Australian company announced plans last month to commence rare earth drilling, shortly after Trump declared strong support on social media for "America's second rare earth mine." In their letter to the BLM, the Democrats claimed that the shift in the mineral being developed to rare earths lacked "any new environmental assessment or mineral compatibility review." The lawmakers urged the Trump administration to revoke the BLM's reliance on the 1985 plan, affirm the NPS's jurisdiction, require compliance with the Mining in the Parks Act, and conduct a comprehensive mineral suitability review of Dateline's access rights. The junior company updated its scoping study data in August, revealing that the project could be mined for eight years, producing 71,000 ounces of gold annually at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,490 per ounce. Although Trump's remarks about the daily schedule suggested that the {{mine}} had been approved "after years of stagnation," the Democratic Party's response indicated that the project still faced some regulatory hurdles.

According to SMM, Peruvian mining officials have stated that the country's copper production is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million mt this year, with mining investment projected to reach at least US$4.8 billion. Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer, having produced approximately 2.7 million mt of copper in 2024 and attracted US$4.96 billion in investment in the crucial mining sector. Jorge Montero, Peru's Minister of Mines and Energy, stated at a press conference that officials are increasingly concerned about illegal gold mining. Peru's gold exports reached US$15.5 billion in 2024, up from US$11 billion the previous year. According to industry data and estimates from Peru's financial regulatory authority, approximately 40% of Peru's gold exports are from illegal sources.