[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: China’s Zinc Concentrate TCs Continue to Decline, SHFE Zinc Gains in Night Session] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 25,010 yuan/mt, after the open it consolidated higher, hitting a high of 25,140 yuan/mt in early trading, then it pulled back to near the daily average line, dipped to a low of 24,950 yuan/mt during the session, afterwards, it consolidated around the daily average line, and eventually closed up at 25,065 yuan/mt..

[Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening? A Nearly 20-Year Rare Opportunity Reemerges!] As of July 28, LME zinc inventory (including non-registered warrants) had pulled back to 101,800 mt, down about 20,000 mt from mid-June. Amid continued destocking outside China, the LME zinc market structure shifted from contango to backwardation, and the backwardation structure kept widening. On July 28, the LME zinc Cash-3M spread strengthened to $61.09/mt. In stark contrast, zinc consumption in China remained in the traditional off-season, with SMM-reported social inventory of zinc ingots across seven domestic markets holding steady at a high level of around 260,000 mt. The supply-demand patterns in China and overseas clearly diverged, and the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio weakened all the way. Against this backdrop, the long-dormant export window for Chinese zinc ingots reappeared, and discussions in the market about reverse arbitrage involving "buying SHFE zinc, selling LME zinc" noticeably heated up...

In H1 2026, the zinc calcine market was characterized by persistently tight raw material supply, gradually declining supply, and processing fees that rose initially before pulling back.

[2026 Zinc Calcine H1 Review: Tightening Raw Materials, TCs Rising Then Falling] In H1 2026, the zinc calcine market overall exhibited the characteristics of "persistently tight raw materials, gradually shrinking supply, and TCs rising first then falling.

In H1 2026, the refined zinc industry struggled under multiple pressures. Ore supply remained tight, with both domestic and imported zinc concentrate TCs falling to record lows since data records began in 2013, directly squeezing smelter profits, and some enterprises have already fallen into losses. How will the refined zinc market develop in H2?

[China's ore shortage situation unchanged, July zinc concentrate TCs continue to decline]: From weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 400 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -600 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $5.33/dmt WoW to -$82.83/dmt....

As of June 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 24,350 yuan/mt, down 615 yuan/mt for the month, a decline of 2.46%. June saw SHFE zinc retreat from highs, touching a high of 25,355 yuan/mt early in the month and a low of 23,720 yuan/mt at month-end, with the overall price center pulling back. Entering July, the ore tightness situation in China persists; how will zinc prices perform?

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: LME Boosted SHFE Trends, SHFE Zinc Rose in Night Session] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,500 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc hovered at highs. At the beginning of the session, it dipped to a low of 24,490 yuan/mt, then touched a high of 24,690 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed up at 24,670 yuan/mt, up 275 yuan/mt..

[Domestic Zinc Concentrate TCs Reach Negative Territory, TCs Continue to Decline]: On a weekly basis, the average SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TCs fell by 100 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -50 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index dropped by $0.45/dmt WoW to -$71.20/dmt..

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc surged to a high of 24,870 yuan/mt, before bulls took profits and prices pulled back. Towards the close, it dipped to a low of 24,640 yuan/mt, finally closing up at 24,695 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt or 0.34%. Trading volume decreased to 59,844 lots, and open interest fell by 748 lots to 96,892 lots.