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SMM December 31: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in December 2025 increased by 2.2% YoY. The average monthly operating rate was 87.7%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM and 0.8 percentage points YoY, mainly due to the commissioning of new aluminum projects in Indonesia, where operating capacity is still in the ramp-up stage, diluting the overall overseas aluminum operating rate. By the end of December, cumulative production in 2025 had increased by 2.8% YoY. The first phase of the Indonesian aluminum project PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry, with a capacity of 500,000 mt, began commissioning at the end of November and is expected to reach full production capacity in October 2026. On December 12, according to Rio Tinto’s official website, the Australian federal government and the New South Wales government announced a new approach to secure reliable, long-term, and competitively priced energy supply for the Tomago aluminum smelter beyond 2028. This reflects constructive collaboration between Tomago Aluminium and the governments to address energy challenges after the current energy contract expires, reducing long-term risks of production cuts or shutdowns at the Tomago smelter. On December 16, according to South32’s official announcement, the Mozal aluminum smelter will enter a maintenance shutdown around March 15, 2026, primarily due to the failure to reach a new power supply agreement. Reportedly, parties remain deadlocked over suitable electricity prices, and persistent drought has also affected the power supply from electricity providers. South32’s production guidance for Mozal for FY2026 (ending March 2026) remains unchanged at 240,000 mt (South32’s share, equivalent to approximately 377,000 mt for Mozal’s total output). However, subsequent foreign media reports indicated that Mozambique's Confederation of Business Associations (CTA) has called on the government to avoid the shutdown of Mozal “at all costs.” SMM will continue to monitor developments. Looking ahead to January 2026, operating capacity at the newly commissioned Indonesian aluminum project is expected to continue ramping up steadily, and daily average aluminum production is projected to maintain growth.

SMM News, November 28: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in November 2025 increased 2.1% YoY; the average monthly operating rate was 88.8%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM but up 0.5 percentage points YoY. By the end of November, cumulative production in 2025 had risen 2.8% YoY. On October 21, Century Aluminum Company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Norðurál Grundartangi ehf, had temporarily halted one of the two electrolysis cell production lines at its Grundartangi aluminum smelter in Iceland due to an electrical equipment failure. The smelter's second electrolysis cell line was unaffected and continued operating at full capacity. The shutdown reduced the smelter's output by approximately two-thirds. No casualties occurred during the incident. On November 6, Century Aluminum Company stated during its Q3 earnings call that the production halt is expected to reduce Q4 shipments by 37,000 mt; the restart of the line depends on the manufacturing, transportation, and installation speed of the replacement power transformer, which is estimated to take 11–12 months. The first phase of the Indonesian aluminum project, PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry, with a capacity of 500,000 mt, began commissioning electrolysis cells at the end of November and is expected to reach full production in the first phase by October 2026. Looking ahead to December, the operating capacity of Indonesia's newly commissioned aluminum project is expected to gradually ramp up, and daily average aluminum production is projected to increase. However, the new project is also expected to raise existing aluminum capacity, diluting the global aluminum operating rate. The overseas aluminum operating rate in December is forecast at approximately 87.7%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM and 0.7 percentage points YoY.

SMM News, November 24: Approaching year-end, looking back at the whole year of 2025, China's operating aluminum capacity has further approached the ceiling of compliant capacity. However, few new projects were commissioned during the year, resulting in limited capacity growth. Boosted by earlier production cuts due to losses and the gradual resumption of production from technological transformation projects, China's aluminum production in 2025 is still expected to achieve a YoY growth rate of 1.7%. China by Province: Sichuan's operating capacity increased by 255,000 mt compared to the end of 2024, mainly because some aluminum enterprises incurred losses and implemented production cuts and maintenance due to high alumina costs at the end of 2024. These enterprises gradually resumed production from February to April 2025, with a total resumed capacity of 255,000 mt. Additionally, individual enterprises in Guangxi underwent technological transformation due to losses at the end of 2024 and started restarting cells from August to September 2025, contributing a total resumed capacity of 100,000 mt. During 2025, some aluminum capacity was relocated from Shandong to Yunnan, reducing Shandong's operating aluminum capacity by 740,000 mt compared to the end of 2024, with all related capacity transferred to Yunnan. Additionally, an aluminum smelter in Yunnan resumed production of 30,000 mt of previously idle capacity, bringing Yunnan's total operating capacity to an increase of 770,000 mt compared to the end of 2024. In addition, the following changes in operating aluminum capacity occurred in 2025 in China: The commissioning of a relocation and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai added 100,000 mt of operating capacity; The completion of a previous technological transformation at an aluminum smelter in Guizhou led to the resumption of production, increasing capacity by 53,000 mt. Overall, China's operating aluminum capacity in 2025 increased by 538,000 mt compared to the end of 2024. With the further manifestation of production growth from some newly commissioned capacities in 2024, China's aluminum production in 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 700,000–800,000 mt. Looking ahead, from the end of 2025 into 2026, a new project at an aluminum smelter in Xinjiang is expected to be commissioned, with a projected net increase in existing capacity of 200,000 mt; a new project at an aluminum smelter in Inner Mongolia is expected to be commissioned, with a projected net increase in existing capacity of 350,000 mt; an aluminum smelter in Henan is expected to relocate some capacity to Inner Mongolia, and after commissioning, this is projected to result in a net increase in operating capacity due to the utilization of some idle capacity indicators; a relocation and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Shanxi is expected to contribute a net increase in operating capacity. Regions Outside China, operating capacity as of now has increased by approximately 500,000 mt compared to the end of 2024. Details are as follows: Capacity increases: Production resumptions at three aluminum smelters owned by a German enterprise are progressing steadily, expected to contribute 150,000 mt of operating capacity growth for the full year; An aluminum smelter in Spain resumed production. Although the process was temporarily halted due to a power outage, it subsequently resumed and is expected to reach full capacity in 2026; In Indonesia, an aluminum plant launched the second phase of its project in 2024 but suspended operations due to cost issues. The capacity reached full production in 2025. Two new aluminum smelter projects are scheduled to commence their first phases by the end of 2025, with full capacity expected in 2026. Total capacity growth involved in Indonesia amounts to approximately 650,000 mt; An aluminum plant in Malaysia implemented production cuts in 2024 due to an accident. The related capacity resumed operations in Q1 2025, contributing 100,000 mt of operating capacity growth; A new aluminum smelter project in Angola is expected to be energized by the end of 2025, adding 120,000 mt of existing capacity; An aluminum plant in New Zealand resumed production. It had cut production in 2024 in response to energy shortages and resumed in 2025. However, due to persistent power supply risks in 2025, the resumption was suspended. Current operating capacity has increased by 80,000 mt; An aluminum plant in Brazil continues to push for production resumption, contributing around 70,000 mt of operating capacity growth within the year. Capacity reductions: In October 2025, an aluminum plant in Iceland temporarily halted one production line due to electrical equipment failure, involving an annual capacity of 210,000 mt.

On Monday, October 20, data released by the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) showed that global primary aluminum production in September increased by 0.9% YoY to 6.08 million mt, with daily average production at 202,700 mt. Excluding China and unreported regions, primary aluminum production in September was 2.23 million mt, with daily average production at 74,300 mt. Please note that this news is sourced from https://m-q-news.wenhua.com.cn/newshare/#/share/20251020000698?ver=7.4.3 and translated by SMM.

SMM September 30 News: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in September 2025 increased by 2.9% YoY; the average monthly operating rate was 88.7%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM but up 0.3 percentage points YoY. By the end of September, cumulative production in 2025 had risen 2.9% YoY. In August, US-based Century Aluminum announced the restart of a production line with an annual capacity of approximately 50,000 mt at its Mt. Holly facility in South Carolina, bringing the plant's total annual output to 220,000 mt. The new electrolytic cells are expected to produce their first aluminum in Q1 2026 and reach full capacity by the end of Q2 2026. South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique, Africa, has yet to reach an agreement with the government and energy supplier HCB. South32 announced plans to place Mozal under care and maintenance in March 2026; it expects its equity aluminum production to drop to approximately 240,000 mt in FY26 (July 1, 2025–June 30, 2026), compared with 355,000 mt in FY25. Alcoa announced that the restart, previously delayed by a nationwide spring blackout, resumed progress in August. The company previously aimed to gradually complete the restart and increase operating load by mid-2026. Looking ahead to October, no additional aluminum enterprises are currently expected to commence production, resume operations, or implement production cuts. The overseas aluminum operating rate in October is projected to be around 88.8%, up 0.1 percentage point MoM and 0.6 percentage points YoY. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's proprietary database models for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]

According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry in May 2025 declined by 0.8 percentage points MoM to 41.3%, and fell by 2.7% YoY. Although there was a slight recovery in the operating rate in the early period after the Labour Day holiday, under the triple pressure of high costs, insufficient orders, and continuous losses on production, the overall operating rate of the industry showed a downward trend, with frequent production reductions and suspensions. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises were severely affected, with a significant decline in operating rates, and some enterprises were basically in a state of suspension. In contrast, large enterprises maintained relatively stable production due to their own advantages. Entering June, the traditional off-season continued. Given that the operating rate of enterprises had already declined significantly from April to May, the decline in June was expected to be limited.

In mid-May, Mingtai Al. released a record of investor relations activities, mentioning that the company's production and sales of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil in Q1 reached a new historical high, with sales volume approaching 380,000 mt, up 11% YoY. The company is unwavering in its commitment to driving product structure improvement through technological innovation, emphasizing "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," focusing on "high-end intelligent manufacturing," and strategically positioning itself to seize future opportunities. The development and stable supply of products in emerging fields such as new energy, automotive transportation, and robotics are contributing to the company's steady growth in production and sales. Mingtai Al.'s previously released Q1 performance report showed that the company achieved a total revenue of 8.124 billion yuan in Q1, up 13.07% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 440 million yuan, up 21.46% YoY. According to public information, the company primarily engages in the comprehensive application of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, aluminum extrusion, and secondary aluminum resources. It possesses four hot continuous rolling production lines, internationally advanced aluminum dross treatment production lines, and secondary aluminum process technology and equipment. Its products cover 47 alloy grades from the 1-series to the 8-series, with over 200 specifications and models available. The company serves more than 4,000 customers, with its products being popular in over 50 countries and regions both domestically and overseas. They are widely used in numerous fields such as new energy, electronics and home appliances, 5G communications, pharmaceutical packaging, food packaging, transportation, ultra-high voltage power transmission, railcar bodies, new infrastructure, and military industries. Regarding current orders on hand, Mingtai Al. stated that historically, March marks the peak consumption season for aluminum. The company's current orders on hand have increased, sufficient to meet one and a half months of production scheduling. Moreover, the company's product processing fees have remained stable with an upward trend. In Q1, the company and the industry raised processing fees for products such as CTP/PS plates, can stock, and easy-open end stock. Additionally, the company was asked about the impact of the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy on its foreign trade. Mingtai Al. responded that during the 2018 Sino-US trade war, the US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese aluminum products, after which Mingtai Al.'s direct exports to the US decreased significantly. Recently, steel and aluminum products were not included in the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy. Foreign trade sales volume has increased QoQ this year, with foreign trade orders showing signs of recovery. Regarding the company's development plan for 2025, Mingtai Al. stated that it is dedicated to its core business, focusing on "high-end intelligent manufacturing" and "low-carbon circular economy." This year, the company will prioritize the construction of high-end heat treatment lines to promote product upgrading, paying close attention to aluminum demand in fields such as new energy, automotive materials, semiconductors, industrial robots, and low-altitude flight. It will actively develop products in these related fields and continuously improve its product structure. This year, the production capacity of the subsidiary Yirui New Materials and overseas bases continued to be released, ensuring a significant increase in the company's production and sales scale in 2025. Mingtai AL. was also asked whether the company's scale of secondary aluminum conservation application would continue to expand in 2025. The company stated that in the second half of 2024, the EU began requiring the submission of product carbon emission data. After preliminary calculations by the company, secondary aluminum products demonstrated significant advantages in carbon emission reduction, and the company is unwavering in its commitment to continuously promoting the development of the secondary aluminum business. At the end of 2024, China Customs relaxed restrictions on the import of deformed aluminum scrap, supporting the development of enterprises engaged in the conservation application of secondary aluminum. The company established an International Procurement Department for Secondary Aluminum to further expand the sources of aluminum scrap procurement, actively promote the application of secondary aluminum products, and continue to lead the industry in low-carbon development. Previously, the company also released its 2024 annual report data, showing a total revenue of 32.321 billion yuan, up 22.23% YoY; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.748 billion yuan, up 29.76% YoY. According to the annual report data, the company currently has an annual processing capacity of over 1 million mt of aluminum scrap and a comprehensive utilization capacity of 120,000 mt of aluminum dross, reaching internationally advanced levels. In terms of the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil business, the existing production capacity is over 1.6 million mt. The company produces a variety of products, including battery aluminum foil for pouch batteries, electronic foil, checkered plate, lightweight materials for commercial vehicles, and food and pharmaceutical packaging foil, which consistently rank among the top in the domestic market share. The proportion of high value-added products, such as aluminum for new energy and new materials, aluminum for transportation, and aluminum for automotive lightweight applications, is gradually increasing. In the aluminum extrusion business, Mingtai Traffic New Material operates steadily, achieving self-sufficiency in railcar extrusions, supplying aluminum alloy railcar bodies in bulk, and externally selling products such as new energy battery trays, automotive extrusions, extruded aluminum pipes for GIL used in ultra-high-voltage power transmission equipment, and interior fittings for rail vehicles, continuously expanding its business scope. In terms of procurement mode, the company's main raw materials are aluminum ingots and secondary aluminum, adopting a "produce based on sales, purchase based on production" approach. It procures from suppliers in a continuous and batch-by-batch manner according to customer orders and production and operation plans. The procurement price is determined based on the average spot aluminum price on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Market , adjusted in consideration of payment terms, freight responsibility, and the type of secondary aluminum. The company has signed long-term procurement agreements with some aluminum ingot suppliers of a certain scale and economic strength, establishing long-term and stable cooperative relationships to ensure convenient and timely raw material supply. Moreover, to cope with potential losses from volatile raw material prices, Mingtai AL. issued an announcement on April 23 regarding the implementation of aluminum ingot hedging. It mentioned that engaging in aluminum ingot futures trading can fully utilize the hedging mechanism in the futures market to mitigate the risk of raw material price fluctuations, avoid potential losses from volatile raw material prices, ensure the relative stability of product costs, and reduce the impact on the company's normal operations. When mentioning the impact of aluminum ingot hedging on the company, Mingtai Aluminum stated that the company specializes in the production and sales of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, with aluminum ingot as its main raw material. To avoid the impact of fluctuations in raw material prices, the company will actively hedge relevant risks through the hedging function of futures, adhering to the principles of legality, prudence, safety, and effectiveness, without the purpose of arbitrage or speculation. The company has formulated relevant risk control measures to strictly control investment risks. The company's engagement in futures hedging business will not harm the interests of the company and all its shareholders.

On Tuesday, April 22, data released by the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) showed that global primary aluminum production in March increased by 2.3% YoY to 6.227 million mt. The daily average production of primary aluminum in March was 200,900 mt. Excluding China and unreported regions, primary aluminum production in March was 2.297 million mt, with a daily average production of 74,100 mt.

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum in March increased MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, and the output from the resumption in February had been realized. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's liquid aluminum ratio rising by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream billet plants in Guangxi cut production, leading to a decline in the liquid aluminum ratio at local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt. Capacity changes: By the end of March, SMM statistics showed that domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.81 million mt, and operating capacity was around 43.88 million mt. The industry's operating rate rose by 0.5 percentage points MoM and 2.8 percentage points YoY to 95.8%. Currently, aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Chongqing have largely resumed production. A smelter in Guangxi undergoing technological transformation is expected to resume production around October 2025, while another smelter in Guangxi that previously cut production due to losses has resumed operations. Additionally, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai has started production, contributing to the growth momentum of future aluminum operating capacity. Production forecast: Entering April 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to rise again as related companies reach full production. By the end of April, the annualized operating capacity of domestic aluminum is projected to slightly increase to 43.92 million mt/year. Aluminum prices are fluctuating at highs, while downstream demand has increased due to the peak season. However, under the pressure of end-user price reductions, processing fees for products like aluminum billets have declined, and losses in Guangxi's billet production have resurfaced. The liquid aluminum ratio in April may experience a slight correction to around 73%. Continued attention is needed on the resumption of aluminum capacity in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream liquid aluminum sectors such as billets.

View SMM spot aluminum quotes, data, and market analysis Order and view SMM metal spot historical price trends SMM March 31 news: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. Domestic aluminum operating capacity rose MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some resumptions in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels, with the industry's liquid aluminum ratio increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, recent losses at downstream billet plants in Guangxi led to production cuts, causing a decline in the liquid aluminum ratio at some local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt. Capacity changes: As of the end of March, SMM statistics show that domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.81 million mt, with operating capacity around 43.88 million mt. The industry's operating rate rose by 0.5 percentage points MoM and 2.8 percentage points YoY to 95.8%. Currently, aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Chongqing have largely resumed production, while a Guangxi smelter undergoing technological transformation is expected to resume production around October 2025, and another previously loss-making smelter in Guangxi has already resumed production. Additionally, a smelter in Qinghai has started production after a replacement and upgrade project, contributing to future growth in aluminum operating capacity. Production forecast: Entering April 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to rise again as related companies start production and reach full capacity. By the end of April, domestic annualized aluminum operating capacity is projected to slightly increase to 43.92 million mt/year. Aluminum prices continue to fluctuate at highs, while downstream demand is expected to rise as the peak season begins. However, with end-users pushing for lower prices, processing fees for aluminum billets and others have declined, and losses at billet plants in Guangxi have led to renewed production cuts. The liquid aluminum ratio in April may see a slight correction to around 73%. Continued attention is needed on the resumption of aluminum capacity across regions and the operating rates of downstream liquid aluminum products such as billets. Data source: SMM Click SMM industry database for more information

  》Click to View the SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database 》Subscribe to View SMM Historical Spot Metal Prices     December 30 SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing  Futures Market: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2502 contract opened at 19,775 yuan/mt, hit a high of 19,785 yuan/mt, a low of 19,700 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,785 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.05% from the previous trading day. Last Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,553/mt, reached a high of $2,562/mt, a low of $2,533.5/mt, and closed at $2,557/mt, up $1/mt or 0.04%. Macro Front: (1) The European Central Bank may consider waiting longer before the next interest rate cut (bearish★★); (2) Pan Gongsheng: Strengthen the intensity of monetary policy adjustments and improve the precision of monetary policy regulation (bullish★)  Fundamentals Side: (1) According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in December 2024 (31 days) increased by 4.13% YoY, and cumulative production from January to December 2024 rose by 3.89% YoY (bearish★★); (2) By the end of December, SMM statistics showed that domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.71 million mt, with operating capacity around 43.53 million mt, and the industry's operating rate increased by 2.49 percentage points YoY to 95.38% (bearish★); (3) According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises last week was recorded at 61.1%, down 1.2 percentage points WoW, with the downward trend further expanding (bearish★). Primary Aluminum Market: Last Friday morning, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract fluctuated, and as the weekend approached, the futures market center shifted downward, with moderate trading in the spot market. Specifically, in east China, suppliers' inventories declined, and downstream buying sentiment improved, narrowing the discount to the SMM average price to around +10 yuan/mt. Additionally, as year-end approaches, market transactions may decrease, and SMM will continue to monitor subsequent trading conditions and the signing of new long-term contracts. In central China, spot aluminum prices remained at low levels recently, with suppliers' inventories declining and tight market circulation. The Henan-Shanghai price spread widened, with a discount of about 80 yuan/mt last Friday. Market transactions showed initial signs of weak downstream demand, but low inventories provided price support.  Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials: Last Friday, primary aluminum spot prices fell by 90 yuan/mt compared to the previous day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 19,730 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The aluminum scrap market was largely stable, with baled UBC prices rising by 50 yuan/mt compared to the previous day. Currently, large domestic enterprises are executing long-term contracts as usual, while small enterprises remain cautious, with some engaging in year-end stockpiling. Last Friday, baled UBC aluminum scrap was quoted at 14,750-15,755 yuan/mt (excluding tax), and shredded aluminum tense scrap was quoted at 16,000-17,300 yuan/mt (liquid aluminum, excluding tax). In the short term, the overall supply of aluminum scrap in the spot market remains limited. Downstream restocking at low prices earlier has reduced purchase willingness for high-priced aluminum scrap, leading to weak overall market transactions. The price difference between primary metal and scrap in east China is expected to narrow.  Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Last week, secondary aluminum alloy prices were more likely to rise than fall, with SMM ADC12 prices up 100 yuan/mt WoW to 20,800 yuan/mt. On the cost side, driven by order deliveries and pre-holiday stocking demand, secondary aluminum plants actively sourced materials in the market. However, insufficient aluminum scrap supply and low selling sentiment among traders continued to pose challenges for raw material procurement. On the production side, raw material shortages and environmental protection-related controls further dragged down the operating rates of secondary aluminum plants. Overall, as the market approaches January, aluminum scrap supply may tighten again, and secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain resilient, with a tendency to rise rather than fall.  Summary: On the macro front, the European Central Bank may delay its interest rate cuts, and market expectations for the extent of US Fed rate cuts next year remain pessimistic, putting continued pressure on base metals. On the fundamentals side, in December, several aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production, while some capacity restarts were delayed. However, production still showed YoY growth. On the demand side, market demand continued to weaken during the off-season, with aluminum processing industry operating rates declining further. Overall, with unclear US Fed rate cut timing and delayed European Central Bank rate cuts on the macro front, and despite slightly reduced supply-side pressure on the fundamentals side, weak demand during the off-season and growing risks of inventory buildup in social stocks are expected to keep aluminum prices fluctuating downward in the short term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

According to SMM statistics, in November 2024 (30 days), overseas aluminum production slightly increased by 0.4% YoY, with an average operating rate of 87.7%, up 0.1% MoM and 1% YoY. Cumulative production in 2024 increased by 1.0% YoY. New Zealand's Tiwai Point aluminum smelter ended power rationing and production cuts in September and is currently in the process of resuming production, with a total capacity of 125,000 mt to be resumed. Full production is expected to be restored by February next year, and the current capacity utilization rate of the plant is about 75%. Additionally, the second phase of a 250,000 mt aluminum smelter project in Indonesia was put into operation in October, but subsequent commissioning progress has been delayed this month due to cost factors. As of November 2024, the commissioning scale of the project was only 30,000 mt, and the specific commissioning time for the remaining capacity is yet to be determined. The total capacity of the plant will reach 500,000 mt after full commissioning. Looking ahead, SMM expects overseas aluminum production in December 2024 (31 days) to slightly increase by 0.6% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 87.7%, up 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. However, on November 26, 2024, Rusal announced that due to the surge in global alumina prices and weak domestic aluminum demand, it would cut annual production by 6%, or 250,000 mt per year. The specific plants and timeline for the production cuts have not yet been announced, but this will be a potential reduction in future overseas aluminum production.

According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas aluminum total production was up 0.1% YoY, with cumulative production up 1.1% YoY. The average operating rate was 87.8%, down 0.5% MoM, up 0.1% YoY, maintaining overall stable production. New Zealand's Tiwai Point smelter reduced production by 125,000 mt in July and August due to power rationing but ended the cuts by the end of September and is expected to return to normal production levels by February 2025. Meanwhile, Press Metal's plant in Samalaju experienced an explosion in September, affecting about 9% of its total aluminum capacity, involving 100 out of 300 electrolytic cells in Phase III, and is expected to reduce Press Metal's 2024 annual aluminum production by about 3%. The damaged facilities are expected to take approximately four months to repair, after which production will gradually resume. Additionally, other resumption progress is as follows: South America's Alumar aluminum smelter (60% owned by Alcoa, 40% by South32) announced resumption in April 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 72% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is about 125,000 mt. Russia's Taishet aluminum smelter has seen slow progress since the resumption announcement in 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 67% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is 145,000 mt. Europe's Trimet announced the resumption of its three aluminum smelters in Germany in April this year, expected to reach full production by mid-2025, with the operating rate recovering to about 66% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is 277,000 mt. In terms of new capacity, the second phase of the Hua Chin aluminum smelter in Indonesia, with an expansion capacity of 250,000 mt, started production this month and is expected to reach full production by year-end or early next year, with a total capacity of 500,000 mt. Additionally, no overseas aluminum smelters reduced production in October due to high alumina costs. Looking ahead to November, SMM expects overseas aluminum production in November 2024 (30 days) to increase slightly by 0.3% YoY, with the average operating rate reaching 88%, up 0.2% MoM, and up 0.4% YoY.

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 21,045 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 21,200 yuan/mt and a low of 21,080 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,100 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt or 1.30% from the previous close. The trading volume was 51,000 lots, and the open interest was 206,000 lots, with a daily increase of 1,968 lots. On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,620/mt, hit a high of $2,663/mt, a low of $2,612/mt, and closed at $2,659/mt, up $38/mt or 1.45%. Summary: On the macro front, global liquidity remains ample, the Chinese government continues to boost consumption, and the escalating hot war situation supports gold and commodity prices. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply and demand both saw slight YoY growth, with the supply and demand relationship relatively stable. Social inventory was affected by transportation issues, continuously destocking to below the 600,000 mt mark. Spot alumina supply is tight, and some companies' production cuts and suspensions have caused alumina prices to fluctuate upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward.

According to SMM statistics, in September 2024 (30 days), the total overseas aluminum production slightly decreased by 0.1% YoY. As of September 2024, cumulative overseas aluminum production increased by 1.1% YoY. The average overseas operating rate was 88%, down 0.2% MoM, up 0.7% YoY. By region: North America: September total production decreased by 3.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 83.1%. The New Madrid aluminum smelter in the US announced a shutdown at the beginning of 2024, reducing annual aluminum production by about 147,000 mt; however, Alcoa's Warrick aluminum smelter announced the restart of a 54,000 mt production line early last year, with the current operating rate at about 75%. South America: September total production increased by 5.0% YoY, with an average operating rate of 67.7%. The increase was due to the restart of the Alumar plant. Alcoa holds a 60% stake, and South 32 holds 40%. It announced a restart in April 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 70% in September. Russia: September total production increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 95.3%. The increase came from the restart of the Taishet aluminum smelter. The plant announced a restart in early 2022, but progress was slow. In September, the total production was about 21,000 mt, with the operating rate recovering to about 64%. Europe (excluding Russia): September total production increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 73.8%. The increase mainly came from the restart of Trimet's three plants in Germany. Trimet announced a restart in April 2024, expected to reach full production by mid-2025. According to SMM estimates, the operating rate of the three plants recovered to about 63% in September. Africa: September total production increased by 2.7% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 84.9%. Oceania: September total production decreased by 5.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 84.5%, down 0.2% MoM, down 4.7% YoY. The main reason was the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter in New Zealand reducing power consumption by a total of 205 MW in July and August to alleviate the energy crisis of the New Zealand State Grid. Currently, Tiwai Point's annual capacity is about 345,000 mt, and the two power reductions are expected to reduce aluminum production by about 125,000 mt. Middle East: September total production slightly decreased by 1.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of 102.2%. India: September total production was about 348,000 mt, up 0.7% YoY. The average operating rate was 100.2%. Other Asian regions excluding China, India, and the Middle East: September total production decreased by 1.7% MoM, with an average operating rate of 76.3%, down 3.8 MoM. The decrease was due to an explosion at Press Metal's Samalaju plant in September, affecting about 9% of total aluminum capacity, specifically 100 out of 300 electrolytic cells in the plant's third phase. This incident is expected to reduce Press Metal's annual aluminum production in 2024 by about 3%. The repair of the damaged facilities is expected to take about four months, after which production will gradually recover. October forecast: According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas aluminum production is expected to remain flat YoY, with an average overseas operating rate of 88%, down 0.2% MoM, up 0.7% YoY.