Glencore reported adjusted EBITDA of US$10.1 billion for the first half of 2026, up 86% year on year and above market expectations of US$9.5 billion. The increase was mainly driven by heightened energy-market volatility resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, which boosted earnings from the company’s commodity marketing and trading business. Adjusted EBIT from its marketing division reached US$3.3 billion, already approaching the upper end of its full-year target range. Adjusted EBITDA from its industrial operations, including mining assets, increased 72% year on year to US$6.5 billion, primarily supported by higher commodity prices. Glencore said it would continue expanding its copper business while retaining coal as a core part of its portfolio. The company expects production growth in the second half of 2026 to be driven mainly by higher steelmaking coal output. Based on prevailing commodity prices and its production outlook for the second half, Glencore expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$19.7 billion.

[Pr-Nd oxide continued to weaken, large factories’ evening purchases boosted confidence, medium-heavy rare earth followed the decline.] Yesterday, affected by wild swings in futures prices, most market participants had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Factories were reluctant to sell and purchase, and some traders continued to sell small quantities at low prices. However, large factories’ purchases in the evening boosted some market confidence, and low-priced supply tightened again. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide also edged down with the market, but most factories kept their offers firm, and the decline was relatively small.

Glencore plans to seek a secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange in October, aiming to access Australia’s large pool of mining-focused capital, support its copper growth strategy and strengthen its ability to pursue potential acquisitions. Chief executive Gary Nagle said Australia offers a deep base of investors with strong mining expertise, as well as a pension market worth approximately A$4.4 trillion. Glencore expects to qualify for inclusion in the ASX 200 within 12 months of listing and eventually aims to enter the ASX 100. Glencore reported adjusted first-half earnings of US$10.1 billion, up 86% year-on-year and the second-highest result in its history, supported by higher commodity prices and strong trading profits from volatile energy markets.

With Zambia's general election scheduled for August 13, the country's mining industry is calling for stronger government support to accelerate copper sector expansion, including incentives for mineral processing, increased greenfield exploration and additional power generation capacity. Africa's second-largest copper producer aims to increase annual copper output to 3 million tonnes, nearly triple current production, to capitalize on rising global demand driven by electric vehicles, power grids and infrastructure development. Benchmark copper prices have climbed more than 40% over the past year to around US$14,000 per tonne. The Zambia Chamber of Mines said tax reforms and improved engagement between government and mining companies have attracted more than US$10 billion of investment since the 2021 election. President Hakainde Hichilema is expected to win re-election, with mining policies likely to remain largely unchanged.

As the six-month standstill under UK takeover rules expires this week, Rio Tinto is not expected to restart merger discussions with Glencore. According to people familiar with management's thinking, CEO Simon Trott remains focused on cost reductions, portfolio optimization and expanding the company's copper business. Rio Tinto evaluated a potential merger with Glencore earlier this year, seeking to combine Glencore's copper assets and marketing business with Rio's mining operations. However, the company concluded that the transaction did not offer sufficient value and ended discussions in early February. Glencore's share price has risen about 33% this year, compared with an 18% gain for Rio Tinto's London-listed shares, making a renewed bid less attractive. Rio Tinto's immediate priority remains unlocking more than US$10 billion through portfolio optimization and asset divestments while pursuing organic copper growth. Mergers and acquisitions may eventually be needed to secure long-term copper growth beyond 2030, a renewed approach to Glencore is not expected in the near term.

In July, the sodium-ion battery materials market sustained strong momentum, with both cathode and anode segments showing clear signs of “robust demand, strained capacity.” Orders from downstream battery cell manufacturers continued to surge, particularly as the penetration rate of the polyanion route in energy storage applications accelerated, pushing upstream material enterprises to near-full-capacity operations.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Contract Hits New Stage High, Aluminum Alloy Market Consolidates at Highs, Drifting Higher] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,435 yuan/mt, shot up to 23,540 yuan/mt, hitting a new stage high, then pulled back to a low of 23,380 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,450 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan, or 0.09%, from the settlement price.

[China's Aluminum Inventory Pullback, Multiple Factors in Play, Aluminum Prices Drift Higher] Overall, recently the macro front has improved, the US Fed's near-term hold on rate hikes has eased the marginal constraint on the non-ferrous metals sector, and China's proportion of liquid aluminum continues to rise while aluminum inventory destocking has resumed, together underpinning aluminum prices. However, the continuous rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China during the off-season, and the recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are putting some upward pressure on aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a trend of consolidating on a strong note.

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,992/mt, dipped to $13,975.5/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to hit a high of $14,150/mt, before eventually settling at $14,148.5/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume stood at 20,200 lots, and open interest increased to 253,000 lots, up 1,896 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,350 yuan/mt, with an intraday high of 107,840 yuan/mt and a low of 107,300 yuan/mt, and settled at 107,770 yuan/mt, up 0.40%. Trading volume was 38,600 lots, while open interest fell to 214,000 lots, down 2,688 lots from the previous trading day, as bears reduced positions.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: ADP Misses Expectations + LME Tin Night Session Breaks Through 57,000 SHFE Tin 2609 Closes at 438,200 Up 1.70%]