Platinum prices rebounded strongly today. US ADP employment data and manufacturing PMI data both fell short of expectations, and Kevin Warsh said in a public speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening that upside risks to inflation had eased, cooling market expectations for rate hikes. During morning trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 401.6 yuan/g, up 5.12%. The inverted spread between the best ask price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's Pt9995 and GFEX PT2608 remained at 4–6 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to a premium of 0.5 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract, with the discount level unchanged from the previous trading day. Most traders' quotes still leaned toward parity with the most-traded contract. Downstream consumption was weak and wait-and-see sentiment was strong as platinum prices rose markedly intraday. Overall, turnover in the platinum market remained sluggish today.

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Today, platinum prices continued their weak trend. The market is currently focusing on the US June non-farm payrolls report, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment data this week. Precious metals futures may continue to swing wildly, with limited upside room. During the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 382.75 yuan/g, down 1.91%. The inverted spread between the SGE platinum 9995 ask price and GFEX PT2608 widened to around 6 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to a premium of 0.5 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The discount in mainstream quotations was basically flat compared with the previous trading day. The majority of traders quoted at parity against the most-traded contract. Most upstream enterprises had a low willingness to sell due to low absolute prices. Downstream demand was limited, with most enterprises staying on the sidelines, and some making just-in-time procurements. Overall, platinum trading was light today.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that June manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

[SMM Morning Meeting Note: LME Zinc Sees a Large Bullish Candlestick, Daily Candlestick Center Rises] Last night, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support. The US dollar index first rose then fell, and inventories outside China continued to decline, supporting LME zinc's center to edge up. Last night, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support from below and the middle band acting as resistance. Currently, domestic TC is low, and China's zinc ingot production in July is expected to continue to decline, supporting SHFE zinc to rise. However, end-use consumption limits the upside of prices.

SMM July 1: Metals market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead declining—LME lead fell 1.08%, LME nickel fell 0.55%, and SHFE lead fell 0.47%. The rest of the metals all gained. LME tin and SHFE tin surged over 2%, with LME tin up 2.58% and SHFE tin up 2.25%. LME zinc and SHFE zinc rose over 1%, with LME zinc up 1.85% and SHFE zinc up 1.4%. Gains in the remaining metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.25%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.42%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, most prices rose except for stainless steel. Stainless steel gained 0.92%, while iron ore fell 0.27%. Declines in other metals were modest. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.08% and coke fell 0.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.42%, at one point dipping to a low of $3,955.4/oz, while COMEX silver rose 0.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.8% and SHFE silver surged 3.43%. As of 6:44 am July 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [NBS: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China’s economic sentiment rebounds somewhat] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the June manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprise PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 ppt from May but still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprise PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 ppts, above the threshold; small enterprise PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 ppt, below the threshold. Among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, commented on China’s June 2026 PMIs. The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.2%, up 0.1 ppt from May, indicating a modest rebound in non-manufacturing sentiment. The services sector expanded at a faster pace. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 ppt, showing some improvement. By sector, business activity indexes for telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all in the high-expansion territory above 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume. Air transport and real estate continued to operate below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index stood at 56.0%, up 0.6 ppt from May, reflecting improved corporate expectations for market development. Construction activity showed some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 ppt, edging up slightly. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, remaining in expansion. [MIIT and eight other departments: Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other departments issued a notice on the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Industrial Internet.” It proposes to enhance computing support. Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities. Explore building an industrial computing network system, strengthen the dynamic coordination of multi-level computing capabilities across end, edge, and cloud, and meet the computing, network, storage, and usage needs of various entities’ business development. Rely on the integrated computing network to strengthen computing interconnectivity, improve the matching supply of intelligent and edge computing power, enhance the ability to process and deeply refine massive heterogeneous data at high speed, and deeply empower scenarios such as industrial large-model training and real-time interaction in the industrial metaverse. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 101.17. Federal funds rate futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed could start raising rates as soon as July. This previously unthinkable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at the July policy meeting remains low, with interest-rate swaps currently pricing in about 9 basis points of tightening, implying roughly a 36% chance of a 25bp hike. Nonetheless, that probability has risen markedly; before new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shifted his focus to price stability, the odds were nearly zero. (From Wallstreetcn app) On the data front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings edged up in May, but the pace of new hires pulled back. Data showed that at the end of May, total job openings across the US rose by 9,000 from the prior month to 7.594 million, above economists’ forecast of 7.3 million. The April figure was revised down from an initially reported 7.618 million to 7.585 million. The increase in openings was mainly concentrated in professional and business services and very small businesses with fewer than ten employees. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Hiring declined by 45,000 to 5.17 million, with the hiring rate stable at 3.3%. US job gains have accelerated sharply for three straight months, and the market had been optimistic that the labor market was returning to a recovery path after a soft patch in 2025. However, the strong payroll gains have been largely driven by a simultaneous decline in both layoffs and quits, rather than by a pickup in hiring by businesses. (Jin10 Data) HSBC said that a sharp rally in the US dollar could be one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of this year. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually in the first half of 2027, and warned that if the Fed signals a stronger readiness to tighten policy than the market expects, and if geopolitical tensions flare up again, the dollar could see an “explosive” rally. Risks have increased since the Fed’s June meeting, when policymakers focused on inflation and offered little forward guidance. That shifted market attention back to interest-rate differentials and helped the dollar strengthen against major currencies over the past two weeks. “A stronger dollar will certainly cause pain, but we think the ‘pain trade’ in FX will be an explosive dollar rally,” analysts including Paul Mackel wrote in a June 29 note. (Bloomberg) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 33.7%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.1%, a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 50.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike at 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro side: Today will see the release of China’s June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, final reading of US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending m/m, UK June Nationwide house price index m/m, final UK June manufacturing PMI, Switzerland May real retail sales y/y, final French June manufacturing PMI, final German June manufacturing PMI, final Eurozone June manufacturing PMI, preliminary Eurozone June CPI y/y, and preliminary Eurozone June CPI m/m. In addition, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will speak at the “Policy Panel” event at the ECB Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Tech Summit will be held July 1-4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is noteworthy that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchange is closed for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Southbound and Northbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada is closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices fell in both markets, with US oil down 1.02% and Brent down 0.65%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its monthly data released Tuesday that US crude oil production climbed to a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, driven by the Iran war boosting oil prices and producers ramping up output. EIA data showed that output increased by 216,000 bpd in April, with New Mexico hitting a record 2.37 million bpd. Texas crude production edged up 36,000 bpd to 5.83 million bpd, the highest since last November. Texas and New Mexico share the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of total US crude output. The third-largest producing state, North Dakota, saw output rise to 1.13 million bpd, also the highest since last November. (From Wallstreetcn app) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels, after a 765,000-barrel draw the prior week. API Cushing crude inventories rose by 503,000 barrels, compared with a draw of 982,000 barrels the previous week. API gasoline inventories fell by 2.106 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.238 million barrels the prior week), while distillate inventories rose by 2.922 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.447 million barrels the prior week). (From Wallstreetcn app) Russia’s crude oil exports are surging to record highs, causing a buildup of crude at sea, while the price of crude, Moscow’s main source of revenue, is falling sharply. According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s average daily seaborne crude exports rose to 4.13 million barrels in the four weeks through June 28. That is the highest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022; before the conflict, a large portion of Russian oil was sent to Western Europe via pipelines. The export surge means Russian oil inventories at sea have increased by about a third since mid-April lows, and cargoes are starting to accumulate off the coast of Egypt and Singapore, suggesting Moscow may face increasing difficulty in placing all its volumes. The rise in exports comes as Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, which may force crude that cannot be processed domestically to be exported. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM News, June 30: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 2.13%, SHFE lead fell 1.02%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, SHFE tin edged up, and SHFE nickel fell 1.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.41%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.82%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.8%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.2%, HRC edged up, rebar fell 0.13%, and stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.18%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.24%, LME aluminum edged up, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc fell 0.19%, LME tin rose 0.44%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.48%, COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.67%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.29%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract was flat at 290.65 yuan/g. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 1.7% to 3,662.5 points. As of 11:36 on June 30, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainstream traded at 24,030-24,250 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,220-24,530 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,100-24,240 yuan/mt, Zijin against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 30-40 yuan/mt, Huxin quoted at 25,090 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 50-100 yuan/mt, Tianjin market versus Shanghai market reported a discount of around 40 yuan/mt. Today contract rollover quotations... Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's economic prosperity level rebounded somewhat] According to NBS data, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the threshold; small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold. From the sub-indexes perspective, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the Service Survey Center at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on China's PMI for June 2026: In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The expansion in the services sector accelerated. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in activity. By industry, business activity indexes for sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; internet, software, and information technology services; monetary and financial services; and insurance were all in the higher expansion zone above 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in business volume. The indexes for air transport and real estate remained below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating improving expectations among enterprises regarding market development. The construction sector saw some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, a marginal rebound. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, continuing to indicate expansion. [PBOC conducts 669.5 billion yuan reverse repo in open market, net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted a 69.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from before. Today, 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos mature. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation, and today 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repos mature. On the US dollar front: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.31. The US Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook; the move was a forceful rebuke to the president's attack on the world's most important central bank. The 5-4 ruling is the latest major check on the Trump administration by the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the court also ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers, a decision that shook a key pillar of the Trump administration's economic policy. The ruling released on Monday rejected the first-ever attempt by a US president to remove a Fed governor; critics have warned that such a move would undermine the central bank's independence. However, on Monday the US Supreme Court also cleared the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without cause; a move that grants the White House greater power and tightens control over independent regulatory agencies. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 29.9%. For September, the probability of unchanged rates is 37.2%, that of a 25bp cumulative hike is 48.8%, and that of a 50bp hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today’s releases include the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for April, the US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index NSA YoY for April, the US Chicago PMI for June, the US JOLTS Job Openings for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the UK Q1 GDP YoY Final, the UK Q1 Current Account, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, France’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, Switzerland’s June KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s April GDP MoM, Japan’s May unemployment rate, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran hold technical negotiations. It is also worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with northbound and southbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for Canada Day. Other currencies: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting showed the bank believed monetary policy needed to remain tight to eliminate surplus demand in the economy. As the minutes were compiled before Brent crude prices fell more than 10% last week, the hawkish tone reflected in them has become notably disconnected from current market moves. Currently, the market is pricing in only 10bp of further tightening by year-end, while the probability of easing by 2027 stands at 17bp. The tension for the Australian dollar lies in that, on one hand, the RBA clearly stated it is prepared to hike again if needed; on the other, the market believes rates have likely peaked. If upcoming data confirms that weaker oil prices are gradually feeding through to inflation expectations, the Australian dollar could face a repricing. Meanwhile, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are adding to domestic growth risks and could reinforce the market’s dovish repricing, even as the RBA board’s rhetoric remains distinctly hawkish.((Jinshi Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.27% and Brent down 0.15%. The market was focused on possible talks between the US and Iran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s top priority at that time was to ensure the implementation of all provisions of the memorandum of understanding. With regard to Article 10 of the memorandum concerning the US commitment to allow Iranian oil exports, the US side had already issued the necessary permits, and Iran was following up on the implementation progress. As for Article 11 regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the relevant implementation procedures were also progressing. This week, Iran would send a technical delegation to Qatar for consultations on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. The spokesperson said that Iran had not yet initiated negotiations on a final agreement. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the precondition for initiating final agreement negotiations was the commencement and continued implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11. Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that there would be no negotiations at any level between Iran and the US in the coming days. The trip by US representatives to Qatar was unrelated to the Iranian technical delegation’s visit; the Iranian delegation’s purpose in going to Qatar was to follow up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. (CCTV) According to trade sources and a document, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) had sharply reduced its official selling prices to attract long-term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminals in the Middle East Gulf in July. The discount for Basrah Medium was $14 to $16 per barrel, and for Basrah Heavy, it was $16.8 to $18.8 per barrel, depending on the loading date. Discounts were larger for loadings from July 1 to 5, and smaller for loadings from July 6 to 10, and from July 11 to 31. SOMO said that buyers needed to submit their order quantities within one day of receiving the notification letter. Trade sources said that the steep discounts might attract buyers, but it remained to be seen whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible. (Jinshi Data APP) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The inventory decline was part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill a gap in global inventories following the Iran conflict and help push down fuel prices. US crude inventories fell rapidly in recent weeks due to strong crude exports and refining demand. From the outbreak of the conflict in late February to June 19, total US inventories, including commercial stocks and the SPR, had fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwine, SHFE Tin Maintains Wild Swings; Downstream Enterprises’ Current Purchase Willingness Is Weak]