[Pr-Nd oxide continued to weaken, large factories’ evening purchases boosted confidence, medium-heavy rare earth followed the decline.] Yesterday, affected by wild swings in futures prices, most market participants had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Factories were reluctant to sell and purchase, and some traders continued to sell small quantities at low prices. However, large factories’ purchases in the evening boosted some market confidence, and low-priced supply tightened again. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide also edged down with the market, but most factories kept their offers firm, and the decline was relatively small.

[Pr-Nd Oxide Continues to Decline, Dragging Metals Down, Magnetic Material Scrap Waits and Sees, Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Stable] Yesterday, some traders continued to sell at low prices, but metal plants' purchase willingness remained poor. Pr-Nd oxide prices further dropped, market confidence was unstable, and downstream inquiries and trading continued to be sluggish. For medium-heavy rare earths, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide markets remained relatively low, plant quotations remained firm, and prices fluctuated relatively little for the time being.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was near 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract was disturbed by supply-side production cut news and PV anti-involution bullish sentiment, causing the most-traded silicon metal futures contract to trend stronger. Silicon enterprises' quotes were generally stable, with a strong willingness to sell. Watch for the impact of variables on short-term price spikes, with resistance above focused on silicon enterprises' willingness to sell. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 31.6-33.5 yuan/kg. Currently, most manufacturers continue to hold back from selling, market transactions are very few, but expectations for price hikes are relatively common. Some forward traders received higher quotes, with some prices even exceeding 40 yuan. However, this is limited to forward traders. Spot trading is currently basically at a standstill, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting.

SMM August 4 news: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices in the Doldrums, Tug-of-War Between Buyers and Sellers Continues] Overall, inquiry activity in the rare earth market is currently low, and combined with the decline in futures prices for Pr-Nd oxide, rare earth prices are in the doldrums. However, upstream producers' quotes remain relatively firm, with limited actual declines, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is intense. In the short term, affected by the stalemate in market trading, Pr-Nd product prices are likely to move sideways within a narrow range.

[Oxide Price Recovery Drives Up Metals, Magnetic Material Maintenance Weighs on Demand, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in Scrap] Last week, as oxide prices recovered, metal suppliers slightly raised their quotations, but market inquiries remained limited. Downstream magnetic material enterprises showed limited acceptance of high-priced metals, creating a sluggish trading atmosphere with actual transactions in the doldrums. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, inquiries remained scarce, and prices for terbium metal and dysprosium-iron alloy showed no significant fluctuations, maintaining overall stability.

[Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream Persists, Metal Transactions Are Weak, and Magnetic Materials Enter High-Temperature Off-Season] Yesterday, NdFeB blank quotes were slightly lowered, primarily because raw material prices drove down NdFeB prices. In terms of transactions, as July drew to a close, regions across China experienced high temperatures, and motor factories and end-users gradually began their high-temperature holidays. The operating rates of motor factories and end-users weakened significantly, reducing demand for rare earth permanent magnets, which ultimately led to persistently sluggish trading activity in the NdFeB market.

India's Vedanta reported a 72% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit to INR 54.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30, driven by higher prices for zinc, copper and silver. Revenue rose 51% to INR 234.56 billion, while net profit margin expanded to 22% despite higher raw material costs. The company also announced that Arun Misra, currently CEO of Hindustan Zinc, will become Vedanta's Chief Executive Officer for a one-year term starting August 1.

[Production Under Pressure, Marginal Supply Reduction, Structural Trend Divergence in Silicon Metal]: The silicon metal industry chain exhibited a clear gaming pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises faced cash flow losses, and a small number undertook maintenance and production halts; however, the limited actual cuts had no directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises showed a strong inclination to hold prices firm and were unwilling to lower quotes to boost orders, while the industry’s in-factory inventory showed an accumulating trend. In the midstream, social inventory destocked continuously in recent weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets saw improved transaction activity at low futures prices, and inventory in the trade circulation segment continued to destock. The tightening of circulating supply drove the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, and spot silicon metal was more resistant to declines than futures.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Weak Demand Persists, Industry Chain Prices Drift Lower] This week, affected by news factors and futures fluctuations, Pr-Nd oxide prices overall remained in the doldrums. Some traders sold at low prices, and metal plants' purchase willingness was poor during the price decline. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices were adjusted down to 743,000-748,000 yuan/mt.