This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

The US solar industry added 26.5 GW of utility-scale capacity in 2025, driving the majority of the 36.5 GW in total new builds, according to 'FERC' data. Solar now constitutes 12.16% of total US generating capacity. In December alone, 993 MW of solar came online across 17 projects. The three-year outlook forecasts an 86.5 GW high-probability solar expansion by 2028. If the entire proposed pipeline is completed, solar could add up to 240 GW to the grid, while fossil fuels face massive retirements.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Uncertainty + Approaching Holiday, Lead Prices Are Expected to Remain in a Consolidation Pattern] US President Trump claimed on his own that he had achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the war against Iran and would launch extremely fierce strikes in the next two to three weeks. As of Friday, with parts of the European and US markets closed for Good Friday and China also approaching the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on Friday...

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Lower in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Higher, While Downstream Enterprises Mainly Purchased to Restock for Phased Production Needs]

[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds Boosted Lead Prices Higher; Follow-up Focus on Alignment With Fundamentals] US President Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz were opened. Recently, there have been signs of easing geopolitical tensions outside China, and market risk aversion sentiment has weakened, leading to a relative rebound in nonferrous metals, among which imported lead has flowed into the Chinese market...