According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US non-farm payrolls increased significantly by 178,000 in March, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000 and reaching the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in March also edged down to 4.3%, compared with market expectations for it to remain unchanged at 4.4%. In addition, non-farm payrolls for January and February were revised down by a combined 7,000. Data from CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the US Fed keeping policy unchanged within the year had exceeded 90%.

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

[SMM Nickel Flash News] Based on the cash cost of high-grade NPI calculated using nickel ore prices from 25 days earlier, profits at high-grade NPI smelters came under pressure during the week, with the sector as a whole remaining in a state of losses or marginal profitability. It is expected that next week, prices of auxiliary materials on the raw material side may remain flat, while the decline in nickel ore prices will likely be limited. High-grade NPI prices will still be under pressure amid back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, and smelter profits will be unlikely to see any significant improvement.

[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, the price center of refined nickel moved lower, while high-grade NPI prices remained stable. The average discount of high-grade NPI against refined nickel narrowed to 262.4 yuan/nickel unit. High-grade NPI prices were expected to remain under pressure next week, while refined nickel prices were expected to continue their downward trend. The average discount of high-grade NPI against refined nickel was expected to continue narrowing, and the driver for conversion of NPI to high-grade nickel matte weakened.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average SMM price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,082.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of Indonesia's NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.02/nickel unit to $136.58/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market generally remained stable, and after the transaction center stabilized, the market entered a state of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, with prices under pressure in the short term.