[SMM Aluminum Express News] Rio Tinto has partnered with the Queensland Government and Commonwealth Government to secure the long-term future of the Boyne aluminum smelter in Gladstone. The deal includes A$2 billion in government funding through 2040 and builds on Rio Tinto’s PPAs underpinning A$7.5 billion in new renewable energy and storage. It ensures Boyne Smelters Limited will remain cost-competitive and continue production beyond its current 2029 power contract as part of the Future Made in Australia.

On Wednesday, March 25, Australia announced it will invest A$2 billion (US$1.4 billion) over 10 years to support the continued operation of Rio Tinto's Boyne smelter, the country's second-largest aluminum smelter. Federal Industry Minister Tim Ayres stated that the investment, shared equally by the federal and Queensland governments, will bring nearly A$7.5 billion in new investment to Queensland, with Rio Tinto covering the energy asset investment. This financial support will ensure that Boyne Smelters Limited, majority-owned by Rio Tinto, continues aluminum production after its existing power contract expires in 2029, and at least until 2040.

European smelters are purchasing less material and turning to export markets to manage inventories. Companies are becoming more cautious amid volatile market conditions.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

Silver prices rebounded and rose today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell and stayed on the sidelines, while downstream buyers generally negotiated prices and bought the dip. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from holders of national-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of 100-150 yuan/kg against TD, or at premiums of 50-80 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Only a small volume was traded in early trading. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed and silver prices surged, downstream purchasing interest declined markedly. Although some suppliers were reluctant to sell and remained on the sidelines due to costs and other factors, some sellers in the market cut prices and sold at premiums of 0-20 yuan/kg against the 2604 contract. Spot market quotations varied widely, buyers and sellers engaged in intense bargaining, downstream enterprises made small-volume purchases on dips, and market transactions turned subdued.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Slight Price Collapse in the Scrap Tungsten Market, Ore and Upstream Smelting Products Consolidated Sideways] SMM News, March 23 In the short term, prices across the tungsten industry chain still showed divergence between primary and recycled materials. China was currently in a transition period marked by tightening supply on the raw ore side and a rising utilization rate of recycled materials. Smelters still needed some time to adjust their restocking practices and complete the adaptation and transition from a long-term contract pricing model led by the ore side to a scrap tungsten market procurement model featuring higher-frequency transactions and greater sensitivity to sentiment.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.