SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Titanium Spot Flash: Imported Titanium Ore Market Remained Under Pressure, Sluggish Port Sales Forced Traders to Cut Prices for Shipments] SMM News, March 19: Imported titanium ore prices remained under pressure today. Quotations for Mozambique-origin titanium concentrate with TiO₂≥46% were 1,670-1,730 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan from yesterday; quotations for Nigeria-origin titanium concentrate with TiO₂≥50% were 1,780-1,830 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan from yesterday; quotations for Australia-origin titanium concentrate with TiO₂≥50% were 1,830-1,880 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan from yesterday.

On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

SMM News, March 19: SHFE aluminum 2603 fluctuated downward in early trading, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, and today’s market mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated around the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in east China was 3.24, up 0.08 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.13 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices extended losses, and buying sentiment in the central China market was strong. Traders and downstream processing enterprises were both bullish and tended to purchase at low prices with moderate stockpiling. Meanwhile, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and transaction premiums showed no sign of weakening. In the end, quotations in the central China market were mainly concentrated at premiums of 10-40 yuan over the central China price, while actual transaction prices were mainly concentrated at premiums of 20-30 yuan over the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.59, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.43, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 3,000 mt MoM today, with inventory buildup seen across all three regions. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM, March 19: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,938/mt. It then moved in a narrow range of $1,926-1,935/mt as bulls and bears were evenly matched. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before consolidating in a narrow range of $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly to settle at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices surged to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. Although prices rebounded slightly intraday, the rebound was weak, and lead prices again came under pressure and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt and touching a low of 16,555 yuan/mt during the period. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%. China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, with some smelters operating at insufficient rates and market supply staying tight. On the imported ore side, the import window opened and expectations for price hikes emerged, but enterprises showed low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened, most secondary lead enterprises stayed on the sidelines and were reluctant to sell, tightening effective supply in the market overall. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed down, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and shifts in downstream purchasing strength.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium/discount at parity, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 95,645 yuan/mt, down 3,375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Futures Closed Lower, Spot Cargo Under Short-Term Pressure] On Wednesday, the ADC12 market generally showed a downward trend, with mainstream producers broadly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. This price adjustment was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, which weakened cost support. Enterprises accordingly adjusted their quotes in line with market changes, but the overall magnitude of the adjustment remained relatively restrained, indicating a rather cautious market sentiment.

SMM News, March 19: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at premiums of 140 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 90 yuan/mt from yesterday; premiums of 20 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 80 yuan/mt from yesterday; and discounts of 40 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 95,735 yuan/mt, down 3,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,615 yuan/mt, up 3,405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals and increased shipments. Copper prices fell sharply, and downstream processing enterprises actively placed orders. Suppliers adjusted prices accordingly. In early trading, standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, but due to very strong transactions, it was later adjusted to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.65, up 0.06 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment stood at 3.43, up 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, as copper prices fell sharply, downstream buyers actively restocked, driving spot premiums significantly higher.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.