[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the early-month procurement cycle is continuing, downstream demand is still being released, and both buying and selling sentiment have been rebounding, keeping market trading activity relatively brisk. On the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were rapidly absorbed, discounted cargoes became hard to find in the market, and suppliers developed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Buyers’ parity bids could not be executed. Due to scarce availability, premiums for high-quality copper held at the high level of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region recorded 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW from Monday; in the Jiangsu region, social inventory recorded 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW from Monday, with both regions showing a destocking trend. Overall, driven by the confluence of early-month demand release, suppliers holding prices firm, and inventory destocking, spot Shanghai copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, maintaining an overall strong trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the market supply-demand structure may undergo marginal changes. On one hand, during the day, some traders will have replenishment needs due to prior overselling, and with the concentrated release of demand to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, available low-priced supplies will be quickly absorbed. Subsequently, the available spot copper in the market is expected to remain tight. On the other hand, from a market sentiment perspective, copper prices are currently at relatively low levels, and suppliers generally hold an optimistic outlook on future spot premiums, showing weak willingness to sell at low prices, which provides support to spot premiums. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, and the discount may narrow slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers will have month-end payment collection needs and will offload cargoes in the market, dragging down the center of spot premiums. Actual transaction discounts for standard-quality copper have already expanded to 70-60 yuan/mt, and some brand offers have reached a discount of 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, SMM understands that after the recent continuous decline in copper prices, some processing enterprises have reported moderate orders, and their dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, market performance shows that suppliers had to lower their offers several times before transactions were concluded, indicating that downstream players are still mainly pushing for lower prices with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers' offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, today's Shanghai social inventory recorded 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu's inventory recorded 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a slight inventory buildup trend. According to SMM, the buildup was mainly due to arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargo, increasing supply-side pressure somewhat. In terms of market performance, intraday trading was overall sluggish. Suppliers quoted premiums from parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt in early trading, but transactions failed to follow up, leading to successive downward revisions of quotes. By the second session, actual transactions for standard-quality copper had fallen to around a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt. Some suppliers were offloading cargo, further dragging down the center of market premiums. Overall demand was weak, with downstream users only making just-in-time procurement, lacking the willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, under the combined pressure of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the intraday copper price center is expected to shift lower, boosting downstream buyers' willingness to restock at lower prices, with some processing enterprises reporting order releases. The month spread structure has shifted from contango to backwardation. Suppliers' delivery profits from holding positions rose, with a strong reluctance to sell. Low-priced available cargoes on the market were tight. After the quick deals of discounted materials in early trading, quotes continued to be raised, and the premium for high-quality copper has widened to 60-100 yuan/mt. Supply side, SMM recorded that Shanghai's social inventory on June 11 was 155,700 mt, down 11,400 mt from June 8, mainly due to concentrated maintenance by domestic smelters and reduced imported arrivals, with spot circulation remaining tight. Overall, under the combined effect of delivery logic, backwardation structure support, and marginal consumption improvement, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain a premium and sustain a firm trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From a supply-demand perspective, consumption showed improvement compared to earlier. According to SMM, some suppliers reported an increase in downstream enterprise orders. Approaching delivery, the spread between the nearby SHFE copper contracts narrowed slightly. Buoyed by delivery-related support, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm rose somewhat, and Shanghai spot copper premiums edged up. In addition, import losses continued to widen, weakening the impetus for overseas cargo inflows, and supply-side increments were limited. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,948.5/mt, touched a high of $13,952/mt early in the session, then the copper price center moved downward throughout the session, touching a low of $13,785/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,785.5/mt, down 1.42%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, a decrease of 370 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 106,360 yuan/mt, touched a high of 106,540 yuan/mt right at the open, then the copper price center fluctuated downward, touching a low of 105,730 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 105,860 yuan/mt, down 0.49%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 185,000 lots, a decrease of 3,142 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls reducing positions.