SMM, August 20: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.57%. SHFE lead rose 0.28%. SHFE zinc edged down slightly. SHFE tin rose 1.68%. SHFE nickel rose 1.19%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.3%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract rose 0.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures contract rose 0.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 2.17%, rebar fell 0.46%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.27%. Stainless steel rose 0.63%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.25%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.12%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:40, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper, LME lead, and LME zinc all rose within 0.3%. LME aluminum fell 0.79%. LME tin rose 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.64%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.11% and COMEX silver rose 2.11%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 2.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 4.93%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 4.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe service) futures contract fell 1.46%, to 1,716.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 20, selected futures midday quotes: Spot Market and Fundamentals Aluminum: Futures prices continued their downward trend today, while the spot market in South China remained steady to firmer. The cumulative absolute price decline has been quite substantial, clearly breaking below the monthly moving average. Combined with inventory still destocking steadily and a considerable single-day decline, these two positive factors led most cargo holders to hold back from selling more decisively... Macro Front China: [Unchanged for the 15th Consecutive Month! August LPR Quotes Released: Above-5-Year at 3.5%, 1-Year at 3%] China's Loan Prime Rates (LPR) for August were released on August 20, with both the 1-year and above-5-year LPRs remaining unchanged. The National Interbank Funding Center, authorized by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), announced that the LPRs for August 20, 2026 are: the 1-year LPR is 3.0%, and the above-5-year LPR is 3.5%. These LPRs are effective until the next LPR announcement. As China's 7-day reverse repo rate, the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 15 consecutive months since its last cut in May 2025, the pricing basis for the LPR did not change this month. The last LPR adjustment occurred in May 2025, when both the 1-year and above-5-year LPRs were lowered by 10 basis points. [Beijing E-Town: To Accelerate Large-Scale Production of 100,000-Unit-Level Embodied AI Robots] According to the official account of "Beijing E-Town", the 2026 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing E-Town on August 19. At the "Open Cooperation" main forum, Li Quan, Member of the Working Committee and Deputy Director of the Administrative Committee of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, unveiled the "Beijing Machine Realm" — a vision for building a new society of human-robot integrated embodied intelligence. Beijing E-Town will accelerate the creation of 100 practical, deployable specialized robot products and promote their application in 1,000 niche fields; it will accelerate the large-scale production of 100,000-unit-level embodied AI robots and form a production capacity for 1 million sets of key core parts. (From Wallstreetcn APP) The PBOC's 7-day reverse repo operation volume was zero for the eighth consecutive working day. Today, 327.4 billion yuan of reverse repo matured. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.83. Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials leaned towards a rate hike last month, while many indicated that further monetary policy tightening would be necessary if inflation failed to decline. However, uncertainty still heavily influenced Fed officials' judgments at the July meeting. The minutes said: "Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, participants reiterated that their interpretation of incoming data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC decided by a 9-to-3 vote in July to maintain the benchmark rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July — Schmid and Musalem — have since indicated they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting if they had a vote. Most policy discussions at the July meeting revolved around differing assessments of the future inflation trajectory. The minutes stated: "Most participants expected inflation to gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and the previous increase in energy prices faded, but many noted that the possibility of inflation persisting at elevated levels remained." According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady through September is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 32.7%. Through October, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady is 58.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 4.3%. Four US Senate Democrats led by Chris Van Hollen have asked Fed Chairman Warsh to publicly disclose his conversations with Trump, following a Wall Street Journal report that the two have spoken on multiple occasions despite such calls not appearing on Warsh's calendar. The senators said that failure to disclose the contact could create the mistaken impression that the White House is directing monetary policymaking. When questioned by Van Hollen last month, Warsh did not directly address the matter. The senators are demanding that Warsh confirm in writing whether he has had any communications with Trump since being sworn in, or amend his calendar to disclose the calls. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett played down the calls in early August, stating that Trump had not pressured Warsh on interest rate decisions; Trump himself has said he had only one brief conversation with Warsh. In contrast, former Fed Chairman Powell documented his calls with Trump and disclosed several in-person meetings. The US Treasury Department announced it is at least doubling the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for long-dated nominal coupon securities, covering both the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year maturity ranges. The maximum size per operation is currently $2 billion, and future operations will be increased to at least $4 billion each. The change is effective September 9, 2026, and will be implemented for the remainder of the current quarterly refunding cycle (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future buyback sizes at its next quarterly refunding meeting, scheduled for November 4, 2026. This increase in buyback operation size reflects the Treasury's intent to provide greater liquidity support for the long-dated nominal Treasury market. Details of the updated temporary Treasury buyback schedule will be released later. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has, through a series of unconventional operations this year, become one of the most interventionist US Treasury chiefs in decades regarding financial markets, aiming to curb rising US borrowing costs. This week, the US Treasury announced plans to "at least double" the size of planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Previously, Treasury had signaled the potential for reduced long-term debt issuance. On July 31, Bessent directed the first US government purchase of Japanese yen in 30 years. Former Treasury official Mark Sobel characterized Bessent as "absolutely an activist interventionist," a style reminiscent of his hedge fund background. Sobel noted that Bessent and senior administration officials are clearly concerned about rising long-term US Treasury yields. Driven by inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the fiscal deficit, 10-year US Treasury yields have continued to rise, pushing up mortgage rates and dragging on economic growth. Some analysts noted that while Bessent is attempting to stabilize markets through yield curve intervention, they warn that such a strategy is unlikely to succeed in the long run without addressing high debt and fiscal deficits. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July PPI month-on-month rate, Switzerland's July trade balance, the UK's August CBI industrial order difference, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month rate, China's total installed power generation capacity as of July this year, and its year-on-year growth rate. Additionally, attention should be paid to the Ministry of Commerce's first regular press conference for August; an interview of 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on CNBC; and Alibaba's earnings release. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both exchanges moved sideways. WTI crude rose 0.05%, and Brent crude rose 0.23%. Oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range amid a stalemate in US-Iran negotiations. According to CCTV News: on August 19 local time, US President Trump stated on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran failed to seize an opportunity for a deal, and he therefore announced the "toughest economic actions ever imposed on any country" against Iran, calling it an "economic war and economic isolation" of unprecedented scale. Trump stated the US is building a record amount of oil pipelines to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. He said the strait's importance will decline as more alternative supply routes emerge and US control over the waterway strengthens. Trump also remarked that while some had predicted oil prices could spike to $350, current prices remain around $84 to $85 a barrel. Two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane for vessels entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz, which transports millions of barrels of oil daily. While the broader war remains a stalemate, this operation has achieved notable results. The operation has been ongoing for several weeks, and 15 to 20 oil tankers have now used the southern passage along the coast of Oman to transit the strait. Officials said about 10 million barrels of oil per day are being shipped out via the strait into global energy markets, though this figure is roughly half the pre-war transit volume. This US-led operation is mitigating one of the most severe consequences of the war: oil supply disruptions that had driven a significant rise in crude prices. Officials indicated that while the volume of oil currently moving through the strait remains below pre-war levels, it is already having a tangible impact on global oil supplies. (Jinshi Data) Separately, Venezuelan Oil Minister Paola Eñau told investors in Houston that Venezuela hopes to sign production-sharing contracts and boost output in the country holding the world's largest crude oil reserves. Eñau said there are currently 916 blocks available for exploration and production in Venezuela. While Venezuela is known for heavy crude, she noted investment opportunities also exist in light and medium crude, as well as natural gas. "We need these agreements to enter these new blocks," she said. "There's a whole world waiting to be explored." This week, Venezuela signed agreements with oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB.N) and independent oil producer Hunt Oil, but the country wants to attract more private investment to revive output, which has been in steady decline for the past two decades. Eñau stated that about 140 companies attended the meeting, and the scale of potential investors present demonstrates the level of market interest in investing in Venezuela. Spot Market Summary: ► ► ► Other base metals spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~

SMM Nickel, August 20: Macro and market news: (1) The US Treasury announced the expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond buybacks. It will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon Treasury bonds, to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026. (2) Following the US Treasury's surprise announcement of increased scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, the Treasury market rebounded, pushing long-term yields significantly lower. The US dollar index fell as much as 0.85% intraday, its biggest drop in three weeks, and hit its lowest level since mid-May. Spot market: On August 20, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 130,250 yuan/mt, up 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and consolidated at highs in the morning session, reporting 129,560 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 1.19%. Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks and a weaker US dollar, both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surged, with SHFE nickel reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Silver Price Breaks Out Strongly Amid US Debt Buyback and Dollar Weakness] SMM, August 20: The expansion of US debt buyback operations drove yields lower, with the dollar posting its biggest drop in three weeks. Combined with heightened geopolitical risks, silver prices broke out to the upside. The spot market saw weak demand, with transactions concentrated at discounts, causing spot silver to struggle to catch up.

SMM August 20: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift higher to test $14,058/mt before finally settling at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, down 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift lower and hit bottom at 107,010 yuan/mt before finally consolidating narrowly to settle at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, down 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. On the macro front, the US Treasury Department announced it will at least double the size of its long-term bond repurchase operations, and the news pushed the US dollar lower, offering support to copper prices. However, LME inventories continued to rise, still capping the upside for copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, warrant cargoes were released into the market, keeping spot supply ample. On the demand side, the pullback in copper prices fueled restocking demand from downstream enterprises. Overall, copper prices today are expected to show a narrow and subdued consolidation pattern.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in early trading, then its center moved up to a high of $14,058/mt, and finally closed at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, quickly hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in early trading, then its center declined to a low of 107,010 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, a decrease of 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted lower throughout the session on August 19. It opened at around $1,888/mt, moved sideways in a narrow $1,880-1,890/mt range early in the session, then gradually declined, hitting an intraday low of $1,871.0/mt. It saw a slight rebound near the close and settled at $1,886.0/mt, down $2.0/mt or 0.11% from the prior trading day. The trading range for the day was $1,871.0-1,891.5/mt, with a range of $20.5/mt. Trading volume was 6,780 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract fell initially but then rose in the night session. After opening, it quickly dipped to 15,870 yuan/mt, then rebounded in choppy trade, touching a session high of 15,975 yuan/mt. It closed around 15,970 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.19% from the prior session’s settlement price. Night session volume was 23,831 lots, and open interest rose 1,506 lots to 81,480 lots from the prior day. Macro: On the international front, Middle East tensions escalated further, with Trump announcing the harshest ever economic sanctions on Iran, calling them “unprecedented economic war and isolation.” Fed minutes showed growing hawkishness, with most officials still expecting inflation to gradually decline but acknowledging persistent upside risks. US federal government debt topped $40 trillion. Driven by a sharp drop in the US dollar index and safe-haven demand, spot gold rose above $4,500 to a new high since June, while silver surged over 5%. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5%. Trump suspended the 50% tariff on Canada for three days, and the US-Canada trade deal plans to halve steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%. On the domestic front, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Universal Medical Security was released. The NDRC held a meeting on the “Six Networks” major project coordination mechanism to improve infrastructure collaboration. The China Gold Association issued a stern statement, saying that China’s gold industry chain is complete and has sufficient resilience to withstand external risks. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate at highs. SMM 1# lead price rose 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers sold as prices moved, with supply of circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai increasing slightly. Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 20 to premiums of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. The north-south market divergence was notable. Smelters in the north saw falling inventory and firm quotations, with spot discounts narrowing and turning into premiums. Downstream purchases in south China were scattered and lacking persistence, with discount-based deals dominating and thin trading. Secondary lead smelters sold as prices moved, but supply of circulating cargoes was limited. Secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 100 to 0 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed moderate enquiry enthusiasm, making just-in-time procurement only, and spot market trading was weak. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory stood at 418,575 mt, an increase of 9,585 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 65,490 mt, down 74 mt from the previous trading day. Lead price forecast for today: Yesterday, LME lead inventory surged by 9,585 mt to 418,600 mt, with high overseas visible inventory weighing on LME; in China's spot market, suppliers of primary lead and secondary lead sold at prevailing market prices, but with a clear north-south divergence in trading, and supply of secondary lead in the market was limited; recently, downstream lead-acid battery consumption has improved, but lead ingot procurement demand remained mainly just-in-time. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.