[SMM Analysis: LME Copper Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Procurement Slows Across China, Japan, and South Korea Amid Flat Market Turnover]This week, LME copper prices fluctuated at high levels. Quotations for bare bright copper held high at 98.5%–99% payability. In contrast, offers for No. 2 ccopper material scrap(Birch/Cliff) showed distinct divergence. However the global recycled raw material market currently exhibits a gridlock defined by "weak supply and demand."

[Producer Daily Output Increase Covers Maintenance Reduction; Transaction Recovery Fails to Halt Factory Inventory Buildup] During June 12-18, magnesium weekly output rose WoW, with maintenance at some enterprises not offsetting the supply increase. Factory inventory edged up slightly, while social inventory diverged, as producing regions destocked and port inventories built up. Weak exports put short-term supply-demand under pressure.

News Release, June 18, 2026: The chrome market maintained a downward trend this week, with ample supply and sluggish demand across the board. Market confidence remains weak, and most participants hold bearish expectations.

SMM, June 18: Lead prices first rose then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, smelters showed clear divergence in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt. Downstream battery plants digested inventories, weakening transactions. Mid-week, increased maintenance at smelters tightened supply, and mainstream quotations shifted to discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt. Towards the weekend, lead prices pulled back slightly, with the discount range remaining unchanged. Ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream users halted procurement early, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Spot transactions were sluggish throughout the week. Lead prices rose by 345 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. Downstream users turned wait-and-see before the Dragon Boat Festival, and transactions for secondary refined lead were subdued. Smelters' raw material inventories declined, but they were reluctant to raise purchase prices for feed, leaving scrap battery purchase prices basically stable. As of June 18, large secondary lead enterprises suffered losses of 395 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized plants incurred losses of 597 yuan/mt, narrowing by 113-115 yuan/mt compared with June 12. Looking ahead, with both production increases and cuts coexisting among secondary smelters, the quotation range for refined lead is expected to remain between discounts of 50 yuan/mt and premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Currently, low raw material inventories at smelters underpin scrap battery prices, but raising purchase prices for feed would exacerbate losses. Purchase prices are expected to remain predominantly stable. With weak finished product prices and high costs, the industry's loss-making situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, with small and medium-sized plants suffering more severe losses.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Slightly Recover but Struggle to Rise This week, stainless steel prices and production costs moved up together, slightly expanding steel mill profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs stood at 2.31%, while that based on inventory raw material costs was 2.59%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Driven by both the sharp rise in SS futures and the gradual release of downstream procurement demand during the week, high-grade NPI prices moved up accordingly. Market expectations for further price increases remain relatively strong, with a notable willingness to hold prices firm. In the near term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 9 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,149.5 yuan/nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, scrap prices edged up this week, bolstered by the combined boost from stronger futures, rising finished steel prices, and the recovery of high-grade NPI, with evident cost support. However, the market has entered the traditional off-season, with frequent production cuts at steel mills weakening demand expectations. Additionally, tax invoice issues have constrained trading activity. While short-term positives have supported firmer prices, under the dual pressures of weak off-season demand and industry pain points, further upside will struggle, and there is a risk of a pullback. As of this Friday, prices of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with latest quotations at around 10,550 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. Despite recent news of power supply tightness in the Mengxi region of Inner Mongolia, the impact on local high-carbon ferrochrome production...

This week, the cobalt chloride and Co3O4 markets fell into a near standstill, with very few actual transactions and overall liquidity almost drying up. From the supply side, over 80% of enterprises had suspended external quotations, leaving very limited effective price information for market reference. A few enterprises still provided price expectations, with cobalt chloride quoted at 103,000-108,000 yuan/mt and Co3O4 at 325,000-340,000 yuan/mt. However, under the current environment, unless substantial concessions were made, external sales were nearly impossible to achieve. These quotations largely reflected only the upstream cost floor and psychological expectations, with their guiding role for actual transactions having significantly weakened. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally still held a certain amount of raw material inventory, sufficient to sustain basic consumption in the short term, so purchasing urgency was not high. As end-use demand remained persistently weak and cobalt chloride prices continued to decline, downstream players' "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment further intensified, compounded by concerns over the future market direction. They generally chose to suspend procurement and stay on the sidelines. Against this backdrop, market pessimism continued to spread. Although some divergence remained between bulls and bears, bearish forces gradually gained the upper hand, making the near-term market direction particularly uncertain. Overall, at this special period in June, the triple pressures of high inventory accumulation, scarce liquidity, and weak demand converged, making it difficult to offer a definitive judgment on the future market trajectory. In contrast, the actual recovery of downstream procurement in July and the intensity of efforts to hold prices firm in the raw material intermediate product segment will provide more substantive guidance for the subsequent market direction.