Platinum prices moved sideways today. US-Iran tensions flared up again as Iran's military explicitly issued a ban targeting the US-proposed plan to use Iran's frozen assets for compensation. Any country or enterprise that accepts the plan would have their vessels prohibited from entering the Strait of Hormuz, as a countermeasure against the US asset disposal plan. Last night, Iran launched multiple missiles aiming to raid US military bases in the Middle East, but the US military stated that all incoming missiles were intercepted. Affected by the sudden escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international oil prices shot up in the early session, and the precious metals sector came under pressure simultaneously. In the early session, the most-traded PT2610 platinum futures contract on GFEX closed at 395.3 yuan/g, down 0.78%. The inverted spread between the SGE platinum 9995 best ask price and the GFEX PT2610 contract was maintained at around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at a discount of 2–3 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, or at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. Some suppliers had limited willingness to sell as delivery approached, while downstream buyers negotiated prices for purchases based on orders. Today, the platinum spot market overall showed a weak supply-demand pattern.

Platinum prices consolidated on a subdued note today. On the geopolitical front, the US suspended airstrikes on Iran, and Iran subsequently stated it had not withdrawn from negotiations and was willing to continue talks with the US, easing Middle East tensions somewhat. Oil prices pulled back from highs, and market trading remained a tug-of-war between risk-off sentiment fueled by geopolitical events and expectations of inflation and interest rate hikes driven by elevated oil prices. In the morning session, the most-traded platinum futures contract on GFEX, PT2610, settled at 398.85 yuan/g, down 1.12%. The inverted spread between the best ask price for 9995 platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2610 contract hovered near 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum were at a discount of 3 yuan/g to 2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, or at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. As futures declined during the day, premiums in mainstream quotations edged up from the previous trading day. Suppliers’ warrant offers were mostly at a slight premium against the GFEX August contract, with spot trades skewed near parity against the same contract. Some traders, tracking the price spread between futures contracts, sought to take on warrants, while downstream buyers made small purchases in line with orders. Overall, spot platinum market consumption was normal today.

Platinum prices held up well today, with the market's core tug of war centered on risk-aversion sentiment fueled by geopolitical events and heightened rate hike expectations driven by high oil prices pushing up inflation. In early trading, the most-traded PT2610 platinum futures contract on GFEX closed at 403.55 yuan/g, up 2.31%. The inverted spread between the best ask price of SGE Pt9995 and GFEX PT2610 narrowed to around 2 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. As futures prices rose intraday, the premium in mainstream quotations narrowed from the previous trading day. Warehouse warrant quotes from suppliers were mostly at a slight premium against the GFEX August contract, and spot transactions tended to be near parity against the August contract. Some traders inquired about taking over warrants based on inter-month spread opportunities. Downstream buyers negotiated purchases according to their order positions, with a heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Overall, the spot platinum market saw subdued consumption today.

[SMM PGM Express] African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) has approved nearly USD 1 billion in investment to redevelop South Africa’s Bokoni platinum mine, signalling renewed confidence in the long-term outlook for platinum amid improving prices and tightening supply conditions. The company plans to invest approximately USD 927 million in a phased redevelopment of Bokoni, which is expected to become a significant source of platinum group metals (PGMs). Once fully operational, the mine is projected to produce around 350,000–400,000 ounces of six-element PGMs annually, strengthening South Africa’s platinum supply base. The investment comes as the global platinum market continues to face supply challenges. South Africa remains the dominant producer of platinum, but rising operating costs, power constraints and previous periods of weak prices have led to mine closures, production cuts and delayed projects. Recent improvements in platinum prices have encouraged producers to reconsider previously deferred investments.

Platinum prices fell sharply today. Escalating US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts triggered a continued surge in oil prices, with international crude settling significantly higher, fueling market expectations for a September rate hike. Precious metals futures remained under pressure from interest rate headwinds, and market sentiment was repeatedly pulled back and forth. In early trading, the most-traded PT2610 platinum futures contract on the GFEX settled at 391.65 yuan/g, down 4.94%, while the inverted spread between the best ask price for Pt9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2610 contract widened to around 6 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream quotations for platinum were from parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. As the futures market plunged during the day, the premium in mainstream quotations rose compared to the previous trading day. Warrant quotations from suppliers’ warehouses were mainly at a small premium against the GFEX August contract. Spot transactions tended to be near parity against the August contract. Some traders followed opportunities from the price spread between futures contracts to inquire about taking delivery of warrants, while downstream buyers negotiated prices and purchased based on their orders. Overall, platinum spot market consumption was normal today.

Analysis of China's Platinum and Palladium Import Market in H1 2026 In H1 2026, China's imports of platinum and palladium showed divergent trends. Imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder continued steady growth, up about 17.8% YoY cumulatively in H1, while imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder surged, up 116% YoY cumulatively in H1. Overall, imports of platinum group metals maintained resilience, driven by industrial demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, while the surge in palladium imports was closely tied to factors including a low base, arbitrage on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, and a policy window for Russian palladium trade. H2 trends will depend on global mine supply, changes in automotive and new energy demand, the ongoing impact of international geopolitics on Russian palladium trade, and arbitrage opportunities between Chinese and overseas markets. June Imports of Unwrought Platinum and Platinum Powder Up 2.5% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Up 17.8% YoY In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were 10.67 mt, up 2.5% MoM and up 27.9% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 48.18 mt, up 17.8% YoY. In terms of trade mode, imports of unwrought platinum were mainly via Ordinary Trade, accounting for over 90%. By source, South Africa remained the top supplier, followed by Russia, Zimbabwe, etc. As the world's largest platinum producer, South Africa's mine supply situation significantly impacts China's imports. Since 2026, power shortages in South Africa have eased somewhat and mine expansions have advanced, but aging mines and insufficient capital expenditure still constrain supply elasticity, keeping overall supply rigid. On the demand side, the main reasons supporting the growth in platinum imports were strong demand from the glass and glass fiber industry, where platinum demand surged 83% YoY to 12 mt, driving overall industrial demand up 9% YoY; and the continued expansion of platinum demand from the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, with PEM electrolyzers, fuel cell vehicles, etc. becoming core growth drivers. In H1 2026, platinum prices were under pressure and consolidating overall. Affected by the US Fed's hawkish stance, a stronger US dollar index, and concerns over global economic growth, the most-traded NYMEX platinum futures contract fluctuated in the $1,930–2,070/oz range in late May, while the most-traded GFEX platinum futures contract consolidated around 485 yuan/g. High and volatile prices led to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream consumers, sluggish spot trading, and a phased slowdown in the pace of imports. H2, as global platinum inventories continue to destock and electronics & hydrogen energy projects accelerate, China's platinum imports are expected to maintain mild growth, though caution is needed regarding the suppression of industrial demand by a macroeconomic downturn. June Imports of Unwrought Palladium and Palladium Powder Up 17.6% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Double YoY In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were 4.75 mt, up 17.6% MoM and up 114% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 26.97 mt, up 116% YoY. By trade mode, unwrought palladium imports were also dominated by Ordinary Trade. By import source, Russia and South Africa were the main suppliers. According to China Customs sub-item data for May 2026, China imported 1.93 mt of palladium from Russia and 1.89 mt from South Africa that month, with the two countries together accounting for over 85%. The sharp surge in palladium imports was mainly driven by: first, a low base in the year-ago period – monthly palladium imports in H1 2025 mostly ranged between 1 and 3 mt, creating a significant low base effect; second, in March–April 2026, with the US Commerce Department’s final anti-dumping determination on Russian unwrought palladium approaching, some traders rushed to import Russian palladium ahead of the final USITC ruling and tariff implementation, and China’s palladium imports in April hit a multi-year monthly record; third, substantial import arbitrage opportunities emerged in Q1, and arbitrage players locked in overseas supplies through import channels and sold on the futures market, leading to heavy warrant generation and boosting domestic spot palladium supply. Yet the palladium market is still under fundamental pressure. Globally, automotive catalysts account for as much as 83% of palladium consumption, while vehicle electrification continues to exert long-term pressure on gasoline-vehicle catalyst demand. Palladium’s core demand faces structural contraction risks, and mounting global growth concerns may push palladium into a structural surplus cycle. On the supply side in May 2026, Nornickel’s platinum and palladium production fell sharply in Q1 due to western sanctions, which provided some support to palladium’s price floor but was insufficient to reverse the weak demand landscape. Looking to H2, as the impact of the USITC final ruling is gradually digested and earlier concentrated cargo arrivals are absorbed by the market, palladium imports are expected to pull back from the high levels seen in Q2. For the full year, palladium imports will still maintain relatively high YoY growth, but are likely to pull back MoM in H2. H2 Outlook Overall, China’s platinum and palladium imports in H1 2026 showed a pattern of “stable platinum, strong palladium.” Platinum imports stayed resilient, supported by demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, and are expected to maintain mild growth in H2; palladium imports surged sharply on the back of the trade policy window and price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, but growth is likely to slow marginally in H2 as the policy impact fades and structural demand-side pressures emerge. The following factors warrant close attention in H2: 1. Mine supply: the impact of South Africa’s electricity situation and mine capital expenditure on platinum supply, and the effect of changes in Nornickel’s output on palladium supply; 2. Trade policy: the impact of the anti-dumping case and sanctions on Russian palladium on the pace of China’s palladium imports; 3. End-use demand: the boost to real platinum and palladium demand from domestic vehicle production and sales, the implementation of hydrogen energy projects, and technology roadmap shifts in the glass and glass fiber industries; 4. Price spreads and the futures market: the influence of price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets and GFEX platinum and palladium futures delivery conditions on the import window.