In H1 2026, the refined zinc industry struggled under multiple pressures. Ore supply remained tight, with both domestic and imported zinc concentrate TCs falling to record lows since data records began in 2013, directly squeezing smelter profits, and some enterprises have already fallen into losses. How will the refined zinc market develop in H2?

[China's ore shortage situation unchanged, July zinc concentrate TCs continue to decline]: From weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 400 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -600 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $5.33/dmt WoW to -$82.83/dmt....

As we near the midpoint of the year, zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have repeatedly tumbled to historic lows. As of June 5, the average TC for domestic zinc concentrate fell to 50 yuan per metric ton of metal content, while the TC for imported zinc concentrate dropped to -70.75 US dollars per dry metric ton.

[Ore Supply Tightness Remains Unchanged, Domestic and Imported Zinc Concentrate TCs Continue to Decline]: Based on weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 250 yuan/mt Zn WoW to 150 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrates index dropped $7.19/dmt WoW to -$63.44/dmt.

[Insight into Provincial Profit Landscape: New Release of Zinc Smelting Profit Model by Province] In May 2026, the zinc market is experiencing unprecedented structural pressure. TCs for imported zinc concentrates have fallen to -$56.25/dmt, while domestic TCs dropped weekly to 400 yuan/mt Zn. Meanwhile, the sulphuric acid export control policy continued to take effect in May, with some 98% smelting acid in south China declining by around 300 yuan/mt, directly impacting an important by-product revenue source for smelters. LME zinc inventory of around 100,000 mt stands in sharp contrast to China's social inventory exceeding 260,000 mt. The pattern of "tight ore and loose ingots" has made smelters the most severely squeezed link in the industry chain......

[Zinc Concentrate TCs in and Outside China Continued to Decline, with Attention on Subsequent June Pricing]: Looking at weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC decreased 150 yuan/mt Zn WoW to 400 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $2.05/dmt WoW to -$56.25/dmt.