SMM, August 5: Expectations for Middle East geopolitics are shifting toward easing, oil prices have pulled back sharply for two consecutive trading days, and market concerns about inflation have cooled. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September have pulled back, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive precious metals futures and stocks to strengthen together. In the futures market: As of around 17:12 on August 5, COMEX gold was up 1.7% at $4,223.1/oz; SHFE gold main contract was up 3.1% at 910.4 yuan/g; COMEX silver was up 2.53% at $61.77/oz; SHFE silver main contract was up 7.08% at 15,105 yuan/kg; silver T+D was up 5.8% at 14,988 yuan/kg. Platinum main contract futures were up 9.18% at 441.15 yuan/g; palladium main contract futures were up 8.51% at 329.65 yuan/g. In the stock market: As of market close on August 5, the precious metals sector was up 7.87%. In individual stocks: Sengda Resources and Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit up, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shanjin International were among the top gainers. News [South Korea's Central Bank Plans to Purchase Domestically Refined Gold Bars for the First Time in 13 Years] According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea said on Monday that it will cooperate with LS MnM, the Korea Exchange (KRX), and the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years through over-the-counter transactions, as heightened geopolitical risks have increased the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves. LS MnM and Korea Zinc produce about 40 to 45 mt of gold annually as a by-product of smelting, of which about 10% is exported. The central bank stated that if relevant enterprises apply, it will consider using the trading and settlement system of the KRX and the storage facilities being prepared by the KSD to purchase some of the gold intended for export. The central bank said it will arrange bulk transactions after prior consultations on price and quantity to limit the impact on domestic gold prices, and that the new channel should reduce foreign exchange risks, since previous overseas purchases were all paid in US dollars. Additionally, the central bank also stated that it purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in Q2. Separately, it was reported that as of July, its gold holdings remained unchanged at 104.4 mt, while South Korea's foreign exchange reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, including gold reserves worth $4.79 billion. [World Gold Council: Gold Investment Demand Expected to Remain Positive] The World Gold Council report noted that in the remainder of 2026, investment demand is expected to be the main driver of gold demand growth, and will be increasingly supported by over-the-counter trading activities and Asian investment demand. Central banks will remain key gold buyers. High gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand, but the response of gold ore production and recycled gold supply is expected to be relatively mild. Gold investment demand is expected to remain positive for the rest of 2026. OTC activity and Asian investment demand are expected to play a larger role, while Western gold ETF flows may continue to be sensitive to US Treasury real yields, Fed monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar. Although consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, high gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand; technology-related gold demand is expected to further benefit from AI investment, but downside risks are accumulating. (Jinshi Data) [Zijin Mining: Terminates Acquisition of United Gold, Plans to Subscribe for 9.2% Equity] Zijin Mining announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on January 26, 2026, its controlled subsidiary Zijin Gold International signed an Arrangement Agreement with United Gold, under which Zijin Gold International would acquire all outstanding common shares of United Gold for a cash price of C$44 per share, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion). However, after comprehensive evaluation, both parties believed that certain closing conditions precedent could not be fully satisfied or waived by the deadline stipulated in the acquisition agreement (which had been extended to July 29, 2026) or within a reasonable period thereafter. The parties agreed to terminate the acquisition, and neither party is required to pay a termination fee or any other fees to the other. Meanwhile, the parties separately entered into a Share Subscription Agreement, under which Zijin Gold International intends to subscribe for 12.8 million common shares (representing approximately 9.2% of the enlarged share capital post-issuance) placed by United Gold at a cash price of C$32.55 per share, with a total subscription amount of C$416.6 million, equivalent to approximately $295 million. [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, up 54%-61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 570 million yuan to 700 million yuan, up 81.06%-122.36% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 402 million yuan, down 2.03%-33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected to Rise 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 500 million to 570 million yuan, up 280.16%-333.39% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 490 million to 580 million yuan, up 172.96%-223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected at 4.1-4.6 Billion Yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On August 5, the morning ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver was 14,556 yuan/kg, up 2.38% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, downstream demand remained sluggish this month, with limited new orders overall. The strengthening silver price further weakened downstream purchase willingness; market transactions mainly relied on support from banking institutions, with deals concentrated around parity, and traders were reluctant to quote. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mostly at parity to a premium of up to 10 yuan/kg against TD; in Shenzhen, some national standard goods were quoted around parity. Although low-priced goods existed, they did not significantly disturb spot trade. Today, the market quoted a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610. Overall, expectations for a Strait of Hormuz agreement heated up, inflation concerns eased briefly, and precious metals recovered slightly. In the spot market, the rise in silver prices further suppressed demand, with orders remaining sluggish and trading staying thin. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: CITIC Securities research report stated that this year gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, irreconcilable geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we think this round of decline in gold prices is merely a temporary correction within the bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is highly likely to be the bottom zone for this round. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from a drag to a boost, the Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and coupled with surging US military spending driving up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an uptrend within the year. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Hsueh Michael stated that the "explosive rally phase" for gold prices that began in August 2024 is not yet over, and maintains the forecast of gold at $4,600/oz in Q4 2026. This assessment rests on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. (Zhitong Finance) A research report from CICC Wealth Futures shows: oil prices pulled back, gold rebounded, and currently, the yen's disruption causing moves in the US dollar index is a new disturbance factor, which is expected to have a relatively limited impact on gold price trends. The biggest pressure on gold currently still comes from oil prices. CICC Wealth Futures believes that if oil prices are not excessively strong, the probability of gold maintaining a fluctuating trend or drifting higher is relatively high. Everbright Futures' outlook for August suggests that the short-term gold price trend depends on the evolving US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or its spillover expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform. However, if a substantive breakthrough in negotiations occurs, gold prices could stabilize in the short term and undergo a recovery and rebound. At that point, if domestic and overseas financial markets show a synchronized recovery, it can be further confirmed. Nevertheless, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank purchases and allocation demand, even if a pullback occurs again, the downside should be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline a medium-term policy framework. Before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key verification indicator. Overall, gold is likely in a stage of bottom consolidation and sentiment repair, and we hold a cautiously optimistic view. The core risk is that the US-Iran conflict once again pushes oil prices above $90/oz, a significant rebound in US inflation data far exceeding expectations, and the evolving probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of overseas financial markets and oil prices, a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict is largely unsupported. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back significantly from their record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, though most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $4,509/oz. That figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610, compared to a forecast of $5,100 in the previous poll. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and boosted rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and US bond yields. The large drop in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came after a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and bond yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold prices should continue to be supported near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce, and now expects platinum to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by year-end, down from a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in the third quarter, despite historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling. The reasons include ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts curbing demand for fresh imports. However, Citi maintains its short-term gold price target of $4,500 for 0–3 months. This target, the bank said, assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed; in the short term there remain many risks that could push gold prices lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance by the Fed. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on the medium to long-term outlook for gold. She noted in her comments that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong surging around 20% over three days – a positive signal. “We believe confidence in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect that prices will rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains upbeat on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. She indicated that the key events to watch going forward are the Fed’s policy tone at the FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical demand for the metal and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold prices face short-term headwinds from the US Fed's tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, gold investment positions look thin, suggesting limited room for further declines. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the US Fed's tightening expectations, central bank purchases are expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with the bank estimating that central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May and the three-month average of monthly purchases at 67 mt, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman Sachs analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue for many years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases will be 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jin10 Data) Kim Soojin, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price action suggests that the market is placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer rather than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to add to its gold positions again at an appropriate time after reducing them earlier this year, believing gold's long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, "We plan to add to our gold positions again; the question is just the timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level from January to February this year, when gold's multi-year bull market abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to bringing inflation back down," "but I don't think we're in that world right now." Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases, a key driver of the previous bull market, will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep correction in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of bottoming out, with further upside only awaiting event catalysts. It recommends building positions in batches near $4,000 on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. Key allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, providing a notable margin of safety. After a deep pullback in H1, current valuations of gold mining companies have retreated sharply from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, aside from a valuation repair rally, they are expected to further benefit from the price elasticity driven by rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an "amplifier" for gold prices—the cost of gold mining is rigid, so rising gold prices directly translate into profit growth, making earnings elasticity far exceed the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: from a medium-term perspective, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of "inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → extended period of high rates by the US Fed → repeated intensification of rate hike expectations within the year," and gold's price center remains dominated by US real bond yields and the US dollar index, with the overall market likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Ceasefire consultations in the Middle East are currently mired in back-and-forth maneuvering, with the two sides significantly diverging on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and toll rules for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The recurring geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed's tightening policy stance. Meanwhile, the simultaneous rise in the US dollar index and US bond yields is creating a dual suppression effect; coupled with gold's safe-haven attributes temporarily yielding to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s bullish logic has not weakened but has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-country competition are weakening the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further confirms the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) The late-cycle US economy faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a growth slowdown. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold possesses strong long-term allocation value: the former is favorable for declining real interest rates, while the latter strengthens demand for safe-haven and credit-risk protection. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and its price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

August 4, 2026 Silver trades at around USD 58, roughly 52 per cent below its January record. At the same time, the market is heading for its sixth consecutive supply deficit. Two facts that appear not to fit together – and one deficit figure currently circulating through the financial press in two entirely different versions. Time for a sober stocktake. The silver market has been through one of the sharpest moves in its recent history in 2026. On 29 January the price reached an unprecedented USD 121.62 per ounce. Since then the metal has given back a good half of that and now hovers around USD 58. To many investors, that looks like a rally that failed. In parallel, a series of reports has appeared over recent weeks attesting to a widening supply deficit – but with markedly different numbers attached. Some cite 67 million ounces, others 46.3 million. Anyone wanting to know what an investment case can actually be built on first has to establish which figure applies. What the World Silver Survey Actually Shows The authoritative source is the World Silver Survey , produced by the Silver Institute together with the London research house Metals Focus. The 2026 edition was published on 15 April – and it puts this year's deficit at 46.3 million ounces. That represents an increase of around 15 per cent on the 40.3 million ounce shortfall recorded in 2025, and it marks the sixth consecutive deficit year. The number is indeed growing – but it is growing from a lower base than recent headlines suggest. The frequently quoted 67 million ounces comes from an earlier Silver Institute projection published ahead of the full survey. More recent data on mine production, recycling and end-use have since superseded that estimate. Anyone arguing on the basis of 67 million ounces today is simply working with an outdated figure. This is not pedantry. The gap between the two numbers amounts to roughly a third of the deficit itself. Building the silver case on the higher figure substantially overstates the scarcity. The Genuinely Relevant Number Lies Elsewhere The annual deficit is not, in any case, the most meaningful metric. Set against global annual demand of around 1.11 billion ounces, 46.3 million ounces amounts to roughly four per cent – hardly a dramatic gap in isolation. The cumulative figure is more instructive. Since the market flipped from surplus to deficit in 2021, it has drawn a total of around 762 million ounces from above-ground stocks to cover the gap between supply and demand. That is close to a full year of global mine production. This is where the supply story really sits. It is not the individual annual shortfall that strains the market, but the fact that available inventories have been steadily eroding for six years. The consequences have already shown themselves repeatedly in the form of thin liquidity, elevated lease rates and unusually violent price swings. The Composition of Demand Is Shifting Markedly What is notable is that the 2026 deficit widens even though total demand is falling. Metals Focus expects a decline of around two per cent to 1,112.6 million ounces, alongside supply falling by roughly two per cent to 1,066.4 million ounces. Within demand, a clear reallocation is under way: Industrial demand: down three per cent to 639.6 million ounces, a second consecutive annual decline. At around 57 per cent of the total, the segment nonetheless remains by far the largest demand pillar and stays historically elevated. Jewellery fabrication: falling to 159.4 million ounces, a five-year low. The drop is particularly pronounced in India at around 18 per cent, where high prices are driving lighter pieces and subdued rural demand. Coins and bars: up 18 per cent, the strongest level since 2022. The pattern is unambiguous. Manufacturers are designing silver out of their processes wherever high prices make that viable, while private investors take up physical metal. The market is therefore increasingly driven by investment flows rather than by fabrication demand. The Gold-Silver Ratio as a Valuation Anchor A further perspective comes from the relationship between the two precious metals. With gold at around USD 4,050 and silver at roughly USD 58, the gold-silver ratio currently stands at just under 70. For comparison: in December the ratio briefly fell below 55:1, its lowest reading since 2013. Silver has therefore given up considerably more than gold during the correction – unsurprising given the metal's stronger industrial linkage. In downturns that dual role acts as a drag; in upswings it acts as leverage. Historically, a ratio around 70 is neither extreme nor especially cheap – it sits in the middle of the range of the past two decades. As a buy signal it is therefore of little use. As an indication that silver has not kept pace with gold's recent moves, it is rather more telling. What Investors Should Take From This The supply side remains the strongest element of the silver case, and it is structurally anchored. Around 70 per cent of silver arises as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining. Higher silver prices therefore do not automatically translate into higher output, because the production decision rests on the economics of the primary metals. Metals Focus expects mine production to remain broadly flat in 2026. At the same time, the risks should not be waved away. Metals Focus itself points out that persistent geopolitical tension and instability in the Middle East could weigh on industrial demand. Monetary headwinds compound this: the US Federal Reserve is currently debating rate increases rather than cuts, which is fundamentally unhelpful for non-yielding assets such as precious metals. And in a market carried increasingly by investment flows, sharp sell-offs remain possible at any point should financial investors withdraw in size. The sober conclusion, then, is this. The structural deficit is real, it is widening, and six years of inventory drawdown have left the market vulnerable. But it is not an argument for any particular price path over the coming months – and certainly not one that benefits from being reinforced with inflated deficit figures. Anyone investing in silver should treat the volatility as a permanent feature rather than an aberration. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/the-silver-deficit-is-widening-but-it-is-smaller-than-many-believe

On July 30, Chifeng Gold's stock price fell. By the close on July 30, Chifeng Gold had dropped 1.82% to 37.17 yuan/share. Chifeng Gold disclosed on July 30 a notice regarding the updated resource estimate for the SND project of the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine, stating: Its controlling subsidiary, LaneXang Minerals Limited Company, completed the first-phase resource exploration work for the SND gold-copper project by the end of June 2025, and SRK Consulting (China) Ltd. issued a "Mineral Resource Estimate Report for the Sepon SND Gold-Copper Project" compliant with the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves" on August 7, 2025. Based on this, the company released its initial resource estimate. For details, please refer to the "Notice on Initial Resource Estimate for the SND Project of the Laos Sepon Gold-Copper Mine" (Notice No.: 2025-046) disclosed on August 8, 2025. In late June 2026, the exploration team of Vientiane Mining completed the second-phase drilling work for the SND gold-copper project. On July 30, 2026, Snowden Optiro issued an updated mineral resource estimate report compliant with the JORC Code. This report supersedes the initial mineral resource estimate report. Compared with the initial estimate, the gold equivalent metal content increased from 107 mt to 260 mt, up approximately 143%. The mineral resource estimate disclosed by Chifeng Gold shows: This mineral resource estimation work was completed by the exploration department of Vientiane Mining and reviewed by the independent international mining consultancy Snowden Optiro, using all drill holes completed by the end of May 2026 and all assay data received before July 10, 2026. The review scope covered data quality control and assurance, database update and verification, geological interpretation and modeling, mineralization domain delineation, ore bulk density zoning and interpolation, block model construction, geostatistical kriging neighborhood analysis, grade interpolation, model validation, resource classification, and technical report compilation. The review conclusion of Snowden Optiro's geologist (JORC Competent Person) on the SND mineral resource estimation work was: This resource estimation meets industry standards, has no significant data issues or errors, and is suitable for public disclosure. The effective date of this report is July 30, 2026. Based on the underground sublevel caving mining method, stope optimization was conducted to determine the potential mining area, constrained by a cut-off grade of 0.4 g/t gold equivalent. Indicated resources total approximately 170 million mt, with an average grade of 0.55 g/t gold and 0.26% copper, containing 96 mt of gold metal and 450,000 mt of copper metal. Inferred resources total approximately 190 million mt, with an average grade of 0.39 g/t gold and 0.19% copper, containing 76 mt of gold metal and 360,000 mt of copper metal. Total resources amount to approximately 360 million mt, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.47 g/t, containing 170 mt of gold metal and 810,000 mt of copper metal, and the gold equivalent metal content is approximately 260 mt. The resource estimate is summarized in the following table: The risk warning disclosed by Chifeng Gold indicates: The SND gold-copper project remains in the exploration stage. The resource estimate in this notice is based on certain assumptions and judgments, contains forward-looking statements, and does not constitute any substantive commitment or investment advice. Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks. In terms of performance: Chifeng Gold disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the financial department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm is expected to range from 1.70 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, an increase of 593.1 million yuan to 673.1 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.1069 billion yuan in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items is expected to range from 1.71 billion yuan to 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of 598.09 million yuan to 678.09 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.11191 billion yuan in the same period last year. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change, Chifeng Gold stated: The significant YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring items for the first half of 2026 was mainly driven by the sharp rise in gold prices compared to the same period last year, with the average gold selling price up approximately 43% YoY, coupled with the company's continuous efforts to strengthen production organization and operational management, which boosted performance for the period. Regarding its main business, Chifeng Gold introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company belongs to the non-ferrous metal ore mining and beneficiation industry, with main products including precious metals such as gold and non-ferrous metals such as copper cathode. Its core business is gold mining, beneficiation, and sales, while also engaging in multi-metal mining, beneficiation, and comprehensive resource recycling. The company operates 6 gold mines and 1 multi-metal mine globally, with a business footprint covering China, Southeast Asia, and West Africa. Among them, domestic subsidiaries Jilong Mining, Wulong Mining, Huatai Mining, and Jintai Mining focus on gold mining and beneficiation; Hanfeng Mining focuses on multi-metal mining and beneficiation of zinc, lead, copper, and molybdenum; its controlling subsidiary, Laos Vientiane Mining, mainly engages in gold mining, beneficiation, and copper metal mining and smelting; its controlling subsidiary, Ghana-based Wasa, mainly engages in gold mining and beneficiation. Additionally, its controlling subsidiary Guangyuan Technology is deeply involved in comprehensive resource recycling, focusing on environmental protection businesses such as dismantling waste electrical and electronic equipment. Pacific Securities commented on May 7 on Chifeng Gold's evolution, showing: Multiple project technological transformations combined with routine maintenance led to a YoY decline in mined gold production. In 2026Q1, the company's mined gold production was 2.98 mt, down 10.7% YoY and 21.7% MoM, achieving 20% of the annual target. The production decline was mainly due to factors including multiple project technological transformations and routine maintenance. Specifically: Jilong Mining's hoist underwent a modification from single-rope to multi-rope, and Wulong Mining conducted renovation works on multiple blind shafts, both of which temporarily restricted ore extraction capacity; the beneficiation plant at the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine underwent annual large-scale routine maintenance, coupled with planned downtime maintenance for one of its high-temperature oxygen autoclaves, leading to a YoY decline in ore processing volume. Rising tax rates combined with declining production led to an increase in unit sales costs. The expense ratio remained relatively stable, while the asset-liability ratio continued to decrease. In 2026Q1, the company's ROE was 6.9%, up 2.5 pct YoY; the period expense ratio was 5.9%, down 0.6 pct YoY and up 0.1 pct MoM. As of 2026Q1, the company's asset-liability ratio was 29.4%, down 9.3 pct YoY and 4.5 pct MoM. Risk warning: wild swings in prices, cost side overshoot, and project progress delays.

SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

On July 27, Chifeng Gold shares rose. As of the close on July 27, the stock was up 4.52% at 38.14 yuan per share. In terms of news: Chifeng Gold disclosed its H1 2026 preliminary earnings after market close on July 14, showing that the company estimates net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for H1 2026 to be between RMB 1,700 million and RMB 1,780 million. Compared with RMB 1,106.9 million in the same period last year, this represents an increase of RMB 593.1 million to RMB 673.1 million, up 54% to 61% YoY. It estimates net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for H1 2026 to be between RMB 1,710 million and RMB 1,790 million, compared with RMB 1,111.91 million in the year-ago period, an increase of RMB 598.09 million to RMB 678.09 million, up 54% to 61% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change in the period, Chifeng Gold said the sharp YoY growth in both net profit metrics was primarily driven by a significant rise in gold prices relative to the same period last year, with the average gold selling price up about 43% YoY, alongside the company's continuous strengthening of production organization and operational management, which boosted results. Regarding its main business, Chifeng Gold described in its 2025 annual report: The company belongs to the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry, with principal products including precious metals such as gold and nonferrous metals like copper cathode. Its core business is gold mining, mineral processing and sales, while also engaging in polymetallic mining and comprehensive resource recovery. The company operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine globally, with a footprint covering China, Southeast Asia and West Africa. Among them, domestic subsidiaries Jilong Mining, Wulong Mining, Huatai Mining and Jintai Mining focus on gold mining and beneficiation; Hanfeng Mining focuses on zinc, lead, copper and molybdenum polymetallic mining; the controlled subsidiary Laos Vientiane Mining is engaged in gold mining and copper mining and smelting; and the controlled subsidiary Ghana Wassa focuses on gold mining. In addition, the controlled subsidiary Guangyuan Technology specializes in comprehensive resource recovery, focusing on the dismantling of waste electrical and electronic products and other environmental protection business. A review of Gold 99's price trend in H1 2026 shows: The average price of Gold 99 on June 30 this year was 866.2 yuan/g, down 110.79 yuan/g from 976.99 yuan/g on December 31, 2025, a decline of 11.34% in H1 2026. The daily average price of Gold 99 in H1 2026 was 1,037.71 yuan/g, up 315.43 yuan/g from 722.28 yuan/g in H1 2025, an increase of 43.67%. Gold price movements have been extremely sharp since the start of 2026. On January 29, COMEX gold hit an all-time high of $5,626.8 per ounce, but subsequently, pressured by factors such as heightened expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, it fell to an intra-year low of $3,955.4 per ounce on June 30. Recently, easing US-Iran tensions have alleviated market concerns about inflation and interest rates staying high for longer, leading to a gold rebound. As of 19:12 on July 27, COMEX gold had risen 0.74% to $4,101.4 per ounce, with a year-to-date loss of 5.53%. Regarding the outlook for precious metals, views from some institutions are as follows: Teves Joni, gold strategist at UBS, remains positive on gold’s medium and long-term outlook. In her commentary, she noted that gold prices have risen since the start of this week, with gold stocks in Mainland China and Hong Kong gaining around 20% cumulatively over three days, a positive signal. "We think sentiment in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels before year-end," she said. The UBS global team stays upbeat about gold's medium-term picture and forecasts that gold will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. Key events to watch ahead, she added, are the policy tone from the US Fed at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East situation. (Jinshi Data App) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from expectations of further US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks thin after months of ETF outflows, suggesting limited room for further declines. The high interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitoong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, with the bank estimating that central banks purchased 81 mt in May, and the three-month average stood at 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts noted, "We believe the trend of central banks adding gold will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts monthly average purchases of 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jinshi Data APP) Kim Soojin, analyst at MUFG, said, "Recent price action suggests the market is placing more weight on the likelihood of U.S. rates staying higher for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to stress unless geopolitical risks translate into a broader deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jinshi Data APP) Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which was trimmed earlier this year, at the right opportunity, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain robust. Samson Ian, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to add back to gold, it’s just a matter of timing." He reduced gold allocation to neutral between January and February this year, when the multi-year bull run in gold ended. Samson expects gold to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027, and only a scenario in which "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks genuinely commit to bringing inflation back down" would undermine the case for a renewed bull market. "I don’t think we’re in that world right now," he added. Samson also said that sustained central bank gold buying, a key driver of the previous gold bull market, will continue to support prices. Last Thursday, Bank of America technical strategists warned that gold’s pullback this year may have room to go much further, potentially resembling the devastating bear markets that followed the massive gold rallies in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold falls to the $3,450-$3,250 range. In a technical research note, BofA analysts pointed out that gold has gathered a series of bearish signals, with rising risks of a sustained drop: a death cross pattern, elevated net long open interest, a warning top candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent peak―a level consistent with the gold tops in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold target to $4,800 per ounce, and while it remains bullish on gold in the long term, it is not adding to positions for now. Its gold allocation stands at a neutral roughly 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year, according to Gupta Paras, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, in an interview. Gupta said the previous overweight position "posed the biggest risk to our portfolio." UBP wants to see Middle East ceasefire agreements maintained, along with greater clarity on inflation and interest rate trends, before increasing its position. Gupta said that for investors with no gold exposure, a dip below $4,000 per ounce would be a highly attractive entry point. (Zhitoong Finance)

July 22, 2026 On 22 July 2026, silver trades at around $59 per ounce – barely half of its all-time high of $121.62 set in January. To many investors, that looks like a failed rally. A closer look at the structural deficit, the gold-silver ratio and analyst targets suggests a very different reading. The silver market has just been through one of the wildest rides in its recent history. In January, the price surged to an unprecedented $121.62, carried by the euphoria of the broader precious-metals bull market. A sharp correction of roughly 52% followed. Today the price hovers around the $59 mark – while gold simultaneously breaks out above $4,100. The decisive question for the second half of the year is this: was the run to more than $120 a speculative overshoot that is now normalising? Or is the consolidation at $59 the base from which the next leg higher begins? The fundamentals speak a remarkably clear language. From $121 to $59 – what actually happened To put the current situation in context, it is worth revisiting what triggered the correction. Three factors worked together: a deeply divided U.S. central-bank committee that put further rate hikes back on the table; a hot May inflation print of 4.2%, which reinforced that restrictive expectation; and silver's high industrial share, which makes the metal more sensitive to growth worries than gold. One point is easily obscured by short-term price action: none of these three triggers changed the underlying supply-and-demand picture. The correction was largely price- and sentiment-driven – not the result of a deteriorating fundamental backdrop. A signal of how resilient this thesis is came with the June inflation report, which showed the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Silver responded with a jump on the very same day. It is exactly this mechanism – easing rate pressure meeting a tight physical market – that is likely to shape the rest of the year. The structural deficit: sixth consecutive year The most important reason not to mistake this correction for the end of the bull market lies on the supply side. 2026 is on track to become the sixth consecutive year of a global silver deficit. The projected shortfall of around 46.3 million ounces exceeds the 40.3-million-ounce gap recorded in 2025. In other words, the deficit is widening, not closing. This scarcity is structural and cannot be fixed quickly. Roughly 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining. That means even materially higher silver prices do not automatically translate into more output, because production hinges on the economics of the base-metal mines. Add to that declining ore grades at established primary silver mines. Every additional deficit year draws down above-ground stockpiles – and those are finite. The demand story: solar, AI and electrification While supply remains sluggish, demand keeps growing from the industrial side. More than half of silver demand comes from industrial applications – a share that makes silver both a precious and an industrial metal at the same time. The drivers are well known and structural: photovoltaics remains a key consumer, even as some solar segments have softened recently. Increasingly stepping in are data centres for artificial intelligence, electronics for electric vehicles and other electrification applications. This demand base is largely decoupled from day-to-day headlines – it keeps running regardless of what central banks decide in the short term. The gold-silver ratio as a signal A classic valuation tool underscores silver's relative appeal versus gold. The gold-silver ratio – the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold – currently sits at around 69:1. The 50-year long-term average ranges between 60:1 and 70:1. At roughly 69:1, the ratio sits at the upper, historically favourable end of that range for silver. In the past, such a level has repeatedly preceded a phase in which silver outperformed gold. If gold keeps breaking out – as it is now, above $4,100 – history often shows silver following with a lag, but frequently with greater leverage. What the analysts expect Notably, despite the 52% correction, none of the major institutions has cut its full-year average forecast below the current price level. The market is treating the pullback as a cyclical pause, not a break in the thesis. J.P. Morgan expects an average price of around $81 per ounce in 2026 – more than double the previous year's average. HSBC recently upgraded its outlook and sees a yearly average near $75. Goldman Sachs points to silver's proximity to electrification and renewable energy; some analysts see prices in the $85 to $100 range, provided industrial demand stays robust. All of these targets sit well above today's $59 – an indication of just how wide the gap is between the current quote and mid-term expectations. The risks – a realistic view For all its structural strength, silver remains one of the most volatile precious metals of all. Its high industrial share is both an opportunity and a risk: if worries about a global slowdown intensify, silver gets hit harder than gold. Monetary policy is another wildcard. Should the U.S. central bank strike a more restrictive tone at its 29 July meeting – or even signal a rate hike – that would likely weigh on prices in the short term. Technically, the zone between $56 and $58 is seen as important support. On the upside, the $65 mark and then the hurdles at $68 and $76 need to be cleared before one can speak of a sustained recovery. Bottom line: consolidation, not a broken trend Anyone looking only at the price chart sees a failed rally in silver. Anyone who adds the fundamentals sees the opposite: a widening supply deficit in its sixth consecutive year, a broad industrial demand base around solar, AI and electrification, a gold-silver ratio at historically favourable levels for silver, and analyst targets that consistently sit above today's price. That does not make $59 a guarantee of rising prices – silver stays prone to sharp swings. But it shifts the perspective: the correction from $121 to $59 looks less like the end of a story than the starting point for its next chapter. Gold's breakout above $4,100 could well be the spark that turns attention back to the smaller, higher-beta precious metal. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-price-2026-correction-setup