SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

A proposed aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma, continues to divide local residents over environmental concerns and economic benefits. US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the project, saying it would create jobs and strengthen domestic aluminum production, while criticizing legal efforts to block its development. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt also warned that delaying the project could drive investment and manufacturing opportunities to other states. The US Department of Energy noted that Inola's inland port provides efficient logistics for bauxite transportation, making it a strategic location for expanding domestic aluminum smelting capacity and reinforcing the US supply chain.

The Irish government is considering seeking EU financial support to keep Aughinish Alumina operating if further sanctions on Russia threaten the refinery's future due to its Russian ownership. Authorities are also assessing the possibility of temporary state control of the County Limerick refinery, one of Europe's largest alumina producers with 459 employees. Any disruption could affect aluminum supply chains serving the automotive and aerospace industries. Officials are also evaluating potential risks to bauxite supply if the current Russian owners halt shipments from Guinea. The move reflects growing efforts to balance Europe's industrial supply security with broader geopolitical sanctions against Russia.

SMM July 2: Domestic bauxite: Supply disruptions pushed up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract procurement prices rose overall Affected by events related to Shanxi coking coal, mining at main domestic bauxite production areas like Shanxi and Henan faced certain disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by expectations of supply tightening, the price center of domestic ore edged up slightly. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were approximately 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, including VAT, EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite: Guinea shipments pulled back alongside pending long-term contracts, with imported ore prices consolidating at highs According to data as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.3834 million mt, down 409,200 mt from the previous week, with shipments pulling back. Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China fell to a range of $30-32/mt, with the lowest quote at $29/mt. Although ocean freight rates declined significantly from the previous $36/mt, market feedback generally indicated difficulty in securing shipping schedules and matching prices. With quota policies yet to be implemented and negotiations on July long-term contract prices still ongoing, coupled with the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season, the market returned to a wait-and-see sentiment, and Guinean mines continued to control bauxite shipments. As for Australia, as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 1.0058 million mt, down 224,200 mt from the previous week. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of June 26, port arrivals of bauxite in China totaled 4.7276 million mt, down 666,900 mt from the previous week. Continuous attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on forward arrival pace and landed costs. Price, there was still no news on the Guinean long-term contract price for July, with sources indicating that negotiations on the relevant long-term contract price were still underway. Meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery bauxite inventories remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, ocean freight rates for spot cargoes to China began to pull back, but with market rumors that the Guinean quota policy was about to be implemented, the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. Guinean bauxite prices continued to consolidate at highs. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quote for Guinean bauxite was $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the CIF price for Guinean bauxite was reported at $70-72/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $69.98/mt, up $0.02/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on various factors including mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, the negotiation of the Guinean long-term contract price for July, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activities. Overall , domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (around 95 days), and the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's July long-term contract price and quota policy, together with the traditional rainy season, also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to reduced shipments caused by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level consolidation pattern. Going forward, the key focus will be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] VBX Limited has secured an indicative term sheet with thyssenkrupp Materials Trading Asia for a A$10 million prepayment and offtake facility to support development of its Wuudagu Bauxite Project in Western Australia. The proposed financing provides upfront funding in exchange for future bauxite supply, although the indicative term sheet is non-binding and may be terminated by either party if definitive agreements are not executed by 31 July 2026.

SMM, July 1: Today, SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,755 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,245 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 22,370 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt or 0.95% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 272,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots, with a daily position decrease of 4,467 lots. The price has broken below all moving averages, widening the gap with MA5 (22,777) to over 400 points. MA10 (23,299.5), MA30 (24,013.67), and MA60 (24,421.75) are in a standard bearish alignment, accelerating the downtrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-470.46) and DEA (-320.9) continue to diverge downward, with the histogram bar widening to -299.12, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum and no sign of the decline halting. Trading volume of 272,000 lots was below MA5 (317,300 lots), and the decline on shrinking volume suggests diminishing market participation. The daily position decrease of 4,467 lots indicates some bear profit-taking, but the trend has not yet reversed. SMM Comment: The dispute over administrative rights in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on nonferrous metal prices. Macro headwinds drove aluminum prices lower both in and outside China. Bearish factors dominate in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,805 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,786 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 158,800 lots, and open interest stood at 286,200 lots, with a daily position decrease of 569 lots. The price has broken below MA5 (2,803.6), MA30 (2,835.07), and MA60 (2,822.95), only temporarily holding below MA10 (2,846.4). MA5 has turned downward and is about to cross below MA60, a clear signal of a weakening moving average system. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-6.18) has turned negative and is below DEA (6.65), with the histogram bar widening to -25.65, spreading downward after a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is dominant. Trading volume of 158,800 lots was below average volumes across all timeframes, and the decline on shrinking volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Inventory structure showed that aluminum smelters’ raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to recent significant price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventory, meanwhile, continued to build up, with overseas port arrivals staying high and imported resources supplementing spot supply, adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]