Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: AI Macro Sentiment Recedes Again, Triggering Market Downward Pressure, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Falls Over 5%]

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's WeChat update, on February 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened a plenary meeting of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry. The meeting focused on thoroughly studying and implementing the important instructions and directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping, and discussed and arranged key tasks to promote the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry, and Head of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Xin Guobin, Member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister, and Xie Shaofeng, Chief Engineer, attended the meeting. The meeting noted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's low-altitude industry has achieved positive results, with accelerated breakthroughs in technology and equipment, and diversified expansion in application scenarios. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is essential to earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, fully recognize the new situation facing the development of China's low-altitude industry, balance development and security, adhere to both policy support and reform innovation, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the leading role of enterprises in innovation, accelerate the cultivation of industrial clusters, and build an intelligent, green, and integrated industrial system, to steadily advance the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. The meeting emphasized the need to effectively strengthen top-level planning, carry out planning formulation work well, increase policy support for the innovative development of the low-altitude industry, accelerate preliminary research on standards, and establish a sound industrial standard system. Efforts should be made to firmly build a security foundation, strengthen management in the manufacturing sector, attach great importance to low-altitude radio security, cybersecurity, and data security, and establish a test and verification systems for low-altitude equipment. It is necessary to actively promote integrated innovation, strengthen research on fundamental and common technologies in the industry, deepen the synergy between low-altitude equipment and industries such as new energy and new-generation information technology, and accelerate the empowerment of artificial intelligence. A favorable environment should be vigorously fostered, with orderly expansion of application scenarios, strengthening scenario-driven upgrades of equipment, deepening high-level international cooperation, and consolidating the talent foundation for the industry, to provide strong support for the development of the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry. Heads of relevant departments, subordinate units, and affiliated universities of the Ministry attended the meeting and delivered exchange speeches.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

SMM February 13: Lead prices fluctuated rangebound during the week, with low quotation activity in the spot market. Most smelters halted shipments for the holiday, while a few enterprises, facing high finished product pressure, were willing to sell off goods, but encountered limited purchase interest. The mainstream ex-factory prices for secondary refined lead spot orders, including tax, were at discounts ranging from 100 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few spot cargoes delivered to downstream enterprises at parity. Downstream battery producers resumed production slightly earlier than secondary lead smelters after the holiday, but digesting pre-holiday lead ingot inventory was expected to take 4 to 7 days. SMM anticipated that secondary lead enterprises would show high shipment activity at that time, while downstream purchase willingness would remain low. Losses at secondary lead smelters persisted, and the number of enterprises reducing or halting production increased during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although waste lead-acid battery prices declined slightly, sluggish trading activity in the lead industry chain weighed on lead price trends. As of February 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -267 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-scale enterprises it was -474 yuan/mt (by-product revenues in the model exclude tin and antimony). After the holiday, secondary lead smelters concentrated on production resumptions, leading to a surge in demand for waste lead-acid batteries; raw material costs were expected to rise significantly. If purchase willingness among downstream battery producers recovers poorly, lead price increases will face pressure, and SMM expects the loss-making trend for secondary lead to persist. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices

This week (February 6, 2026 - February 12, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 59.71%, down 1.39 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan marginally declined slightly. In Hunan, production at smelters continued to decline after maintenance shutdowns, with some plants extending maintenance shutdowns until the end of February due to the Chinese New Year holiday. In Yunnan, production continued to decline due to maintenance-related production cuts and increased holiday maintenance shutdowns. In other regions, such as South China and East China, production remained stable after the resumption of routine maintenance during the holiday period.