Copper shipments into the United States continued to surge as traders sought to capitalize on the price premium between the COMEX and London Metal Exchange (LME) markets ahead of a potential U.S. decision on refined copper import tariffs. According to IHS Markit shipping data, more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper arrived at U.S. ports during July, marking the highest monthly inflow in more than a decade. Combined inventories held on COMEX and LME facilities in the United States have now exceeded 740,000 tonnes, while additional material remains in storage at U.S. ports awaiting delivery. The movement of metal into the U.S. has tightened availability in other key trading hubs. Market participants reported significant inventory declines at bonded warehouses in Shanghai, where stocks have fallen sharply since the beginning of the year as cargoes have been redirected to the U.S. to capture favorable arbitrage opportunities. The premium of COMEX copper over LME prices has remained well above historical norms, providing sufficient margin to offset transportation, insurance and warehousing costs. The shift comes as the U.S. administration continues to evaluate potential tariffs on refined copper imports. While the timing and scope of any measures remain uncertain, the prospect of future trade restrictions has already reshaped global trade flows and inventory distribution. The continued migration of copper inventories into the United States is tightening physical availability across international markets and supporting a firmer supply outlook outside North America. Any delay, revision or cancellation of proposed U.S. import tariffs could narrow the COMEX-LME price premium, potentially reversing some of the recent inventory movements and increasing short-term price volatility.

Copper prices climbed to around US$14,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching their highest level in two months as traders continued to monitor record inflows of copper into the United States ahead of an anticipated decision on refined copper import tariffs. According to foreign media reports, more than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at U.S. ports during July, representing the largest monthly inflow recorded by IHS Markit since it began tracking the data in 2014. The surge has significantly increased inventories at U.S. warehouses and ports while reducing the volume of metal available to consumers in other regions. The inflows have continued despite uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports. Although the U.S. Commerce Department was expected to submit its recommendations by the end of June, no formal decision has yet been announced. The sustained premium of U.S. copper prices over LME prices has continued to support profitable arbitrage opportunities, encouraging traders to redirect material into the U.S. market. Market Impact: The concentration of copper inventories in the United States is tightening physical availability elsewhere, reinforcing an already constrained global market. With copper prices remaining near historic highs and demand supported by electrification, power infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, any tariff decision that further alters global trade flows could intensify regional supply imbalances and provide additional upside for international copper prices.

[SMM Express] South Africa's total chrome ore exports reached 2,403.95kt in June 2026, slipping 0.90% month-on-month but still up sharply by 38.86% year-on-year. The marginal monthly pullback suggests export volumes are levelling off after a period of strong growth, even as the scale of the annual gain confirms that underlying external demand for South African chrome ore remains robust. China remained the dominant destination, absorbing 67.61% of June's total export volume, underscoring how concentrated South Africa's chrome ore trade continues to be around Chinese ferrochrome demand. Singapore and the UAE followed as the second- and third-largest destinations, at 7.85% and 7.82% respectively, together accounting for a modest but notable share outside the core China-linked trade flow.

High ore costs, tight spot availability and weak stainless demand pin China's benchmark NPI index inside a RMB 7/nickel-point range in July, before an Indonesian policy jolt lifts it to a monthly high of RMB 1,129.5.

The SEA secondary aluminum market remained mixed this week. Aluminum scrap prices were largely stable, while ADC12 remained under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Buying activity stayed cautious, although UBC scrap held firm on tighter supply and steady recycling demand. Market attention also shifted to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with growing focus on carbon reporting, recycled content, and supply chain traceability as compliance requirements continue to evolve.

The ongoing delay by the White House on potential refined copper import tariffs under President Donald Trump is accelerating structural dislocations across the global physical copper market. Although the statutory timeline for U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a recommendation has lapsed without a public ruling, the regulatory ambiguity itself has become a primary driver of global trade dynamics. By keeping the tariff threat active, the U.S. has sustained an elevated delivery premium that continues to incentivize aggressive physical inflows into American ports. Over the past 18 months, this mechanism has allowed the country to build a substantial domestic stockpile of a critical metal essential to both green energy transition and advanced technology sectors. However, this deliberate accumulation has come at the direct expense of liquidity in non-U.S. markets. Physical metal is being systematically diverted away from international hubs, driving rapid inventory drawdowns across both London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses. As regional pricing premiums widen and trade flows skew disproportionately toward the United States, prolonged tariff uncertainty risks transforming temporary arbitrage plays into a permanent, structural fracture in the global copper market.