As industry regulation policies continue to be implemented, compliant scrap is currently insufficient to support recyclers in maintaining a high operating rate. Market expectations for tighter rare earth raw material supply are intensifying. After a prior period of fluctuating downward, Pr-Nd oxide prices have achieved three consecutive daily gains. Supply side, driven by policy guidance, the rare earth scrap recycling industry has entered a phase of reasonable production pace adjustments. Multiple recyclers reported that the industry operating rate is expected to pull back from June to July: large enterprises, with their higher self-mining ratios, are seeing more pronounced production cuts; while medium and small enterprises, with lower self-mining ratios and a larger proportion of processing orders, are experiencing a relatively limited impact on actual production. Pr-Nd Oxide Sees Three-Day Winning Streak, Up 2.85% on 17th According to SMM price data, the spot price of Pr-Nd oxide stood at 720,000-725,000 yuan/mt on June 17, with an average price of 722,500 yuan/mt, an increase of 20,000 yuan/mt or 2.85% from the previous trading day. Driven by proliferating expectations of supply tightness, Pr-Nd oxide began its rise on June 15. The average price of 722,500 yuan/mt on June 17 represents an increase of 32,000 yuan/mt or 4.63% from the average price of 690,500 yuan/mt on June 12, achieving a three-day winning streak. Market Outlook Expectations for production cuts in the scrap recycling sector significantly boosted Pr-Nd prices, but downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, with a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Near-term trading is expected to stay stagnant, with Pr-Nd prices likely moving sideways in a narrow range in the short term. Medium and long-term, it is crucial to monitor the supply pace of compliant scrap. As an important supplement to rare earth raw materials, the circulation volume of compliant recycled materials and the normalized operating rates of recyclers will have a lasting impact on raw material supply elasticity. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the pace of demand release during traditional industry peak seasons; changes on both the supply and demand sides will affect the medium and long-term price equilibrium for Pr-Nd oxide. Recommended Reading:

The average price of wolframite concentrates on May 26 was 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), showing signs of stabilization after a nearly 62% decline over more than two months. Currently, downstream procurement demand in the tungsten market increased. Transactions across the entire tungsten industry chain — from tungsten concentrates, APT, and powder to tungsten scrap — recovered. Low-priced supplies in the market gradually diminished, and the industry as a whole showed signs of stopping falling and stabilizing. Wolframite Concentrates Fell 61.88% over 2+ Months, Prices Stabilized on the 26th The downward pace of tungsten concentrate prices slowed, with in-market transactions dominated by medium- and low-grade ore, while high-grade ore transactions remained relatively sluggish. As industry inventory continued to be cleared, downstream restocking demand picked up, mine auction transactions proceeded smoothly, and transaction prices were slightly higher than spot prices for scattered spot cargo in the market, effectively boosting market sentiment. On the 25th, a tungsten enterprise in Guangdong announced that its long-term contract prices for 55% wolframite concentrates for the second half of May were higher than spot order prices in the market, providing strong support for the market bottom and further consolidating the industry's trend of stopping falling. The specific long-term contract prices were: 55% wolframite concentrates at 414,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), 55% scheelite concentrates at 413,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), and APT long-term contract prices at 660,000 yuan/mt. After tungsten prices hit a record high on March 16, they were on an overall pullback trend due to weak demand, and tungsten prices underwent a deep correction over more than two months. According to SMM quotes, on May 26, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 400,000–401,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the record high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 650,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over two months, a staggering decline of 61.88%! Since May, maintenance and production cuts by China's APT enterprises, along with measures to cut production to hold prices firm, effectively digested earlier inventory. As raw material prices gradually stabilized, smelters' willingness to hold prices firm strengthened, downstream just-in-time procurement gradually followed, and market trading activity rebounded slightly. Combined with the support formed by major producers' long-term contract pricing being finalized, APT prices stopped falling, and the market gradually entered a consolidation-at-lows phase. The tungsten powder market continued to see catch-up declines, though the pace of decline slowed down. Recently, the tungsten scrap market stopped falling and stabilized, recycled tungsten enterprises showed insufficient willingness to sell at low prices, and tungsten scrap transactions improved somewhat. Outlook Regarding the outlook for tungsten, overall, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream just-in-time procurement, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market as a whole entered a bottoming-out and recovery phase. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to an SMM survey, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen their inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand. However, influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional "September-October peak season" consumption boom, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Recommended reading:

SMM May 25 News: Driven by rising market expectations for coal policy changes and concerns over tightening supply, bullish sentiment was released in a concentrated manner. Coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit up on May 25 and remained locked at the limit. As of the close of the daytime session on May 25, the most-traded coking coal and coke futures contracts were locked at the daily limit with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. The limit-up moves in coking coal and coke lifted the broader ferrous metals and related raw material sectors, with the ferrosilicon continuous most-traded contract rising 3.97% on May 25. Supported by the strengthening prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, magnesium ingot prices moved higher, with magnesium ingots gaining over 2% in a single day on May 25. Bullish sentiment in the market had already begun to emerge last Sunday. Rising Coal and Ferrosilicon Prices Highlight Cost Support for Magnesium Ingots Spot market: Primary magnesium smelting is highly dependent on raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, with a clear cost transmission chain. As coal prices continued to rise, cost pressure on upstream magnesium enterprises increased significantly. Some upstream enterprises reported that they had already raised their quotations to 16,700 yuan/mt last Sunday. On May 25, although morning inquiries were lukewarm, supported by the rigid cost underpinning from rising raw material prices, most producers still held firm at 16,700 yuan/mt, with a strong willingness to hold prices firm. By region, magnesium ingot prices across China were generally raised by 350 yuan/mt. Mainstream quotations for magnesium ingots (9990) in Fugu, Shenmu, and Inner Mongolia were 16,700 yuan/mt, while quotations in Wenxi were 16,900 yuan/mt. Currently, relevant policies for the coal mine market have not yet been officially implemented. The industry as a whole maintains a cautious wait-and-see stance, and the pace and impact of subsequent policy implementation deserve close attention. Outlook Looking at this round of magnesium price increases, the core driving factor was the rise in raw material costs such as coal and ferrosilicon, representing a typical cost-push price increase rather than one driven by improvements in supply-demand fundamentals. From the current magnesium market fundamentals perspective, the overall oversupply pattern has not shown significant improvement. Although downstream demand demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, end-use demand showed no notable incremental growth, while supply within the market also showed no obvious contraction, leaving fundamentals lacking strong upward support. Overall, the short-term raw material price increases effectively underpinned magnesium prices, supporting magnesium prices to hold up well. However, constrained by the weak supply-demand pattern, the rebound room for magnesium prices in this round is relatively limited. Going forward, it is essential to continue closely monitoring price fluctuations in coal and ferrosilicon raw materials and the implementation of coal mine-related policies, while paying close attention to the release of downstream demand and changes in market supply, in order to assess the pace and upside room for subsequent magnesium price movements. Recommended Reading:

Persistent weakness in downstream demand dragged the tungsten market lower. As of May 19, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was quoted at 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). The current price has not only completely erased all gains accumulated within the year but also pulled back from the year-end 2025 price. Moreover, in just over two months, the average price has fallen 57.59% from its intra-year historical high. End-users have adopted a cautious purchasing stance, with weak demand transmitting upstream level by level, continuously exerting significant downward pressure on raw material prices. Under such circumstances, how will tungsten prices perform going forward? Wolframite Concentrates Continue to Decline, with All Intra-Year Gains Fully Retraced According to SMM quotations, on May 19, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 445,000–446,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with a market average price of 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 3.26% from the previous trading day. In a horizontal comparison, the current average price pulled back 8,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the average of 453,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on December 31, 2025, with all previously accumulated gains within the year fully retraced. Looking at the intra-year price trend, the current price has significantly departed from its highs. Compared to the intra-year historical average high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) recorded on March 16 this year, the average price of wolframite concentrates has cumulatively plunged 605,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over two months, a cumulative decline of 57.59%, representing a highly significant pullback. Outlook Overall, there are currently no substantive positive factors underpinning the market. Downstream mainstream consumers such as cemented carbide and machining enterprises have adopted a conservative purchasing mindset, generally adhering to a strategy of "purchasing as needed and strictly controlling inventory," with overall end-use demand remaining persistently weak. Sluggish demand has directly dragged down upstream smelting-stage demand for products such as APT and tungsten powder, with operational pressure transmitting upstream level by level, continuously suppressing tungsten concentrates raw material prices. Even if mining controls remain stringent going forward and the commissioning progress of low-grade tungsten mines falls short of market expectations, the support from the supply side remains limited and is unlikely to offset the downward pressure brought by weak end-use demand. In the short term, the market lacks sufficient momentum to support a strong price rebound. Tungsten product prices are expected to move sideways amid the interplay between weak demand and low raw material costs. Close attention should be paid to subsequent long-term contract pricing by major tungsten enterprises for guidance on tungsten prices. From a medium and long-term perspective, China's primary tungsten ore mining scale and production are still expected to continue their YoY declining trend. However, during the previous tungsten price surge cycle, the terminal tungsten consumption structure underwent deep optimization, with tungsten consumption in low-value-added sectors gradually being cleared; coupled with the cemented carbide industry's continuous quality upgrades, extended tool service life, and accelerated transition toward high-end products, multiple factors have resulted in China's actual tungsten consumption volume falling short of earlier market expectations. Against this backdrop, the tungsten industry's supply-demand pattern has undergone a fundamental shift—from the previous logic of price increases driven by mine-side supply contraction, it has officially transitioned to a new pattern of "demand-led, structure-priced, cost-supported, and expectations-driven."

Weak downstream demand continued to weigh on tungsten prices. The average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on May 7 was reported at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), having pulled back more than 33% from its historical high in less than two months. As multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, extending the two rounds of reductions in April, how will tungsten prices evolve going forward? Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Continue to Lower Long-term Contract Prices for the First Half of May Multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, with details as follows: A tungsten industry group in Jiangxi released its long-term contract prices for the first half of May. The guidance price for national standard Grade-1 wolframite concentrates for the first half of May 2026 was 720,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) (long-term contract), down 190,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the second half of April. Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten's long-term contract procurement prices for the first half of May were: 1 55% wolframite concentrates: 700,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2 55% scheelite concentrates: 699,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3 APT (national standard Grade-0): 1.02 million yuan/mt, down 330,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Wolframite Concentrates Fell 33.32% in Less Than 2 Months According to SMM, the price spread between tungsten ore long-term contract prices and spot order transaction prices widened to around 200,000, with mainstream mines primarily making shipments under long-term contracts. Spot orders in the market still faced some selling pressure, with transactions remaining difficult and the center continuously shifting downward. However, considering the limited spot order trading volume and the relatively high proportion of long-term contracts in the market, SMM maintained its May 7 prices unchanged for the time being. According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on that day was 700,000–701,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), flat from the previous trading day. Along with the downward shift in the tungsten price center, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on May 7, compared with its historical high average price of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, showed that in less than 2 months, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 350,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), a decline of 33.32%. Outlook As China's mainstream tungsten enterprises continue to lower their new round of long-term contract prices, confidence in the spot market will remain under pressure. Tungsten prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term given the lack of demand support. In the long term, underpinned by the supply rigidity from the continued tightening of China's annual tungsten ore mining quotas, the logic of raw material supply contraction remains unchanged. After tungsten prices pulled back more than 33% in less than two months, the room for further deep declines has been significantly compressed. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the pace of actual demand recovery in downstream end-user sectors such as cemented carbide, special steel, and PV tungsten wire, as well as the timing of concentrated restocking by enterprises in the low-price segment. Recommended Reading:

Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, the magnesium market saw a recovery in trading activity during the first half of this week, with spot prices holding up well and magnesium prices rising for two consecutive days. Current market support mainly came from the continued release of pre-holiday rigid stocking demand from end-users, with downstream procurement pace following in an orderly manner, effectively revitalizing trading activity in the market. On the other hand, rising coal and ferrosilicon futures prices on the raw material side also provided certain cost support for the magnesium market. Supported by multiple positive factors, suppliers generally maintained firm pricing sentiment, low-priced spot cargo in the market gradually diminished, and the overall magnesium market showed a generally stable with slight rise trend. Magnesium prices rose for two consecutive trading days Spot price side: magnesium ingots and magnesium alloys continued the upward trend from the 28th. Specifically, the SMM 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) price on April 29 was 16,600-16,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 16,650 yuan/mt, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The core driver behind this two-day consecutive rise in magnesium prices was pre-holiday restocking demand from downstream end-users. As the Labour Day holiday approached, considering the holiday factor, downstream deep-processing and manufacturing enterprises initiated stockpiling operations in advance, and market procurement enthusiasm improved compared to the previously sluggish conditions. Most downstream enterprises abandoned their earlier wait-and-see sentiment and entered the market to purchase based on their rigid production needs, proactively locking in spot inventory to hedge against post-holiday supply fluctuation risks. The sustained concentrated restocking demand rapidly consumed previously accumulated low-priced inventory in the market, with low-priced resources basically digested and cleared, the market price floor continued to rise, directly driving magnesium prices to raise consecutively. Overall trading activity and transaction sentiment in the market improved during the first half of this week. Outlook Based on the current supply and demand performance in the market, the concentrated release of pre-holiday restocking demand effectively reversed the previously weak market sentiment, boosting confidence among traders and producers to a certain extent. However, from the market pace perspective, after a round of concentrated restocking, downstream stocking demand had been gradually released, and the pre-holiday restocking trend was basically coming to an end. As the Labour Day holiday approached, market procurement activities gradually ceased, and concentrated trading momentum was expected to pull back. Based on current market conditions, domestic magnesium prices were expected to remain generally stable in the short term. In the long term, the domestic magnesium market needs to focus on two aspects going forward: first, the maintenance arrangements and production pace changes of domestic magnesium ingot producers — if mainstream smelters arrange concentrated equipment maintenance and production cuts later, this will directly compress overall market supply, alter the current supply-demand balance, and drive price fluctuations; second, the recovery of demand in markets outside China — currently, ex-China magnesium product demand remained generally stable but weak, and whether export orders can steadily increase and whether export markets can recover will directly affect domestic magnesium ingot exports, becoming an important factor influencing medium and long-term magnesium price trends.